Nyquist's Vulnerability

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I have no major knock on Nyquist or speedy sprint horses in general, but it's not typical for a horse with really good sprint speed like Nyquist to also have a ton of stamina. When a horse has both, you are usually talking about a pretty special horse.

You’re right it’s not that common.
Off the top of my head I can only think of Derby winners War Emblem, Spend A Buck, Seattle Slew, and Bold Forbes having both incredible early speed and stamina. I believe that a true demonstration of Class is when any horse can carry its early speed over a mile in distance, especially if challenged early on.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Nitro

You’re right it’s not that common.
Off the top of my head I can only think of Derby winners War Emblem, Spend A Buck, Seattle Slew, and Bold Forbes having both incredible early speed and stamina. I believe that a true demonstration of Class is when any horse can carry its early speed over a mile in distance, especially if challenged early on.

I'm not even sure which side of the coin I was taking with my comment.

There are a lot of sprinter/milers that can stretch out to 9F on sheer ability, but they want no part of 10-12F. It's those more special ones that can go the extra distance. I have no idea which Nyquist is yet. My inclination is to give him the benefit of the doubt, but as the favorite with some other speed entered, I can't bet on that. I'd be more inclined to try to beat him and possibly tear up my tickets.

[VigorsTheGrey]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I'm not even sure which side of the coin I was taking with my comment.

There are a lot of sprinter/milers that can stretch out to 9F on sheer ability, but they want no part of 10-12F. It's those more special ones that can go the extra distance. I have no idea which Nyquist is yet. My inclination is to give him the benefit of the doubt, but as the favorite with some other speed entered, I can't bet on that. I'd be more inclined to try to beat him and possibly tear up my tickets.

Beat him with who? Nitro thinks there are 2 who might on a fast track. Is Mor Spirit one of them? Who are the others then? I just can't get a handle on Mor Spirit. Part of me says use him, the other part says throw him out....same thing with Mohayman, weird.

[PowerUpPaynter]

Originally Posted by VigorsTheGrey

Beat him with who? Nitro thinks there are 2 who might on a fast track. Is Mor Spirit one of them? Who are the others then? I just can't get a handle on Mor Spirit. Part of me says use him, the other part says throw him out....same thing with Mohayman, weird.

Yeah I think everyone is in that dilemma with Mohaymen. Plus I think he either runs a huge race and hits the board or totally tanks and finishes far back. Dont see much in between.

[dballard125]

Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter

Yeah I think everyone is in that dilemma with Mohaymen. Plus I think he either runs a huge race and hits the board or totally tanks and finishes far back. Dont see much in between.

Amen. I think he either finishes 1-4 or way the hell back.

[Longshot]

History knocks on Nyquist.

Since 1948 there has 19 horses come into the Derby undefeated.
Only 5 of the 19 won the Derby.

Checking PPs back to 1993 only one horse Animal Kingdom (17F) won the Derby with less than 17.5F in prep racing the year of the Derby. Nyquist has 16F in two races. Does he have the bottom to win?

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by VigorsTheGrey

Beat him with who?

I haven't gotten that far, but I'll probably be looking for someone that can race in the 2nd tier and close. IMO, the combination of Danzig Candy, Nyquist, Outwork and 17 other horses (including a few that race close) trying to secure position is enough speed to ensure an honest pace. It could even tilt fast depending on how the speedier horses are ridden. So at this point I don't see a meltdown, but I don't see anyone controlling it in soft fractions either. Without a meltdown, some of the deepest closers (many who have benefited from prep races with hot paces) will probably be disadvantaged relative to the horses with similar ability that will be laying closer to the top few.

I think Nyquist is the best horse but I can't see myself betting him at 10F as the favorite in this field. I guess I could use him with some live bombs if I find any. By the time I see the PP draw, how the track is playing, late workouts, and odds I could change my mind, but that's where my head is at right now.

[boys at tosconova]

the way these derby's are now run, his only vulnerability will be the belmont stakes...

[Secondbest]

Originally Posted by Longshot

History knocks on Nyquist.

Since 1948 there has 19 horses come into the Derby undefeated.
Only 5 of the 19 won the Derby.

Checking PPs back to 1993 only one horse Animal Kingdom (17F) won the Derby with less than 17.5F in prep racing the year of the Derby. Nyquist has 16F in two races. Does he have the bottom to win?

Just curious.Do you know off hand about how many entries had less than 17.5f?

[Longshot]

Originally Posted by Secondbest

Just curious.Do you know off hand about how many entries had less than 17.5f?

I only have the PPs for the winners from 1993 to 1996 but from 1997 to 2015
there were 61 horses entered with less than 17.5 f raced that year.
As you would probably think since the Derby point system started in 2013 there has been only 3 with none in 2015.

Here's a few that were bet heavely and ran up the track that had less than 17.5f
1998...Favorite Trick
2002..Come Home and Sarland
2005...Bellamy Road
2007...Circular Quay
2012...Gemologist
2013...Will Take Charge

[SecretAgentMan]

Originally Posted by Longshot

History knocks on Nyquist.

Since 1948 there has 19 horses come into the Derby undefeated.
Only 5 of the 19 won the Derby.

Checking PPs back to 1993 only one horse Animal Kingdom (17F) won the Derby with less than 17.5F in prep racing the year of the Derby. Nyquist has 16F in two races. Does he have the bottom to win?

Good info man, & no, I don't think Nyquist will win.

[Secondbest]

Originally Posted by Longshot

I only have the PPs for the winners from 1993 to 1996 but from 1997 to 2015
there were 61 horses entered with less than 17.5 f raced that year.
As you would probably think since the Derby point system started in 2013 there has been only 3 with none in 2015.

Here's a few that were bet heavely and ran up the track that had less than 17.5f
1998...Favorite Trick
2002..Come Home and Sarland
2005...Bellamy Road
2007...Circular Quay
2012...Gemologist
2013...Will Take Charge

Thanks. 61 horses 1 winner the percentages are against.that plus his grandsire never siring a winner of 10f or more. Nyquist is becoming a toss for win.But its Still early. Waiting for dráw and weather.
.

[Secondbest]

You know this is one thing I can understand the lack of "bottom" for a 3 yr old going 10f in may is important for betting purposes. Along With sbcaris's closing fractions the 2 together can help eliminations in a very tough year.

[f2tornado]

I pointed out the many negatives earlier but it's really hard to toss this one. He has a top 8 BSF, meets the 3/8th factions angle, has Buckpasser-x, and is undefeated. He also had a good work today. That work suggests he might rate in the Derby but I don't think that's ideal for this horse. I suspect if he's not near the front then will get buried by more than one horse coming home.

[Striker]

Originally Posted by Longshot

History knocks on Nyquist.

Since 1948 there has 19 horses come into the Derby undefeated.
Only 5 of the 19 won the Derby.

Checking PPs back to 1993 only one horse Animal Kingdom (17F) won the Derby with less than 17.5F in prep racing the year of the Derby. Nyquist has 16F in two races. Does he have the bottom to win?

Big Brown??