Using Pace

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by Speed Figure

Here's a little baby bet from today. I didn't look at the trainer, don't know what his intent was, didn't care. I saw a horse who was ranked 1st for selected paceline and 2nd for projected pace figure and projected late pace. Made a simple little bet when the #1 was 9/1 at the gate, only to see it get cut in half to 9/2. These type of horses which I don't see a lot of that rank in the top two of projected pace and late are very good bets.

You had an "auto-bet" situation....don't we all have at least one of those in our arsenal?
Here's one I found recently--using Quirin Running Style and Speed Points only. I didn't need to know anything further--to know this was a unique situation--and this pace scenario was tailor-made for a rare P-8 . He cannot handle any pace pressure at all.

This was a unique situation---as was your horse. My day-to-day 'capping usually requires more info than a pace box.

[Cratos]

Originally Posted by Capper Al

I have so many ways at looking at different racing factors that I confuse myself. I'm back at implementing pace into my rewrite. I have ten different views of pace and probably need to add two more aggregations for it to work. This doesn't count Dave's recent outlook at pace or Giles'. Pace answers at least two things- Can the horse be at the needed call, and the pace rating. Pace rating may not have any value since it is a similar factor to speed and speed triumphs all other factors. Willing to share any successful methods of implementing pace? Is there any value to pace outside of making the call?

Pace is fundamentally one of the most critical factors needed in projecting the final time of a horserace.

Why? Because it is the independent variable in race timing whereas final time is the dependent variable; pace is the "rate of motion" of the race or as I believe Tom Bohamer once wrote (and I might not have his quote exactly correct): "pace is the speed in which the race was run."

Therefore an easy method to implement pace of a race is to take the average pace for a particular class of horses at the track where you are handicapping for a given distance and plot the projected pace curve for the race you are handicapping as an overlay against the average pace (which will be a straight line) and the difference in the curves will be the "work performed."

The area above the average indicates a faster speed at that point of the race and the area below gives a lower speed and the value or size of the area which is calculated and you will have the energy expended.

Pace is not just surface-centric. Pace is primarily environmental-centric, but track configuration, distance, and race shape are important integral factors.

[VigorsTheGrey]

Originally Posted by Cratos

Pace is fundamentally one of the most critical factors needed in projecting the final time of a horserace.

Why? Because it is the independent variable in race timing whereas final time is the dependent variable; pace is the "rate of motion" of the race or as I believe Tom Bohamer once wrote (and I might not have his quote exactly correct): "pace is the speed in which the race was run."

Therefore an easy method to implement pace of a race is to take the average pace for a particular class of horses at the track where you are handicapping for a given distance and plot the projected pace curve for the race you are handicapping as an overlay against the average pace (which will be a straight line) and the difference in the curves will be the "work performed."

The area above the average indicates a faster speed at that point of the race and the area below gives a lower speed and the value or size of the area which is calculated and you will have the energy expended.

Pace is not just surface-centric. Pace is primarily environmental-centric, but track configuration, distance, and race shape are important integral factors.

Now that Trakus is here I would think that better figures would be arrived at that somehow uses the average distance traveled including the average displacement instead of the published distance for the race which is always going to be shorter than this average, don't you think? Wouldn't that make for an adjustment to par times?

[VigorsTheGrey]

Originally Posted by Cratos

Pace is fundamentally one of the most critical factors needed in projecting the final time of a horserace.

Why? Because it is the independent variable in race timing whereas final time is the dependent variable; pace is the "rate of motion" of the race or as I believe Tom Bohamer once wrote (and I might not have his quote exactly correct): "pace is the speed in which the race was run."

Therefore an easy method to implement pace of a race is to take the average pace for a particular class of horses at the track where you are handicapping for a given distance and plot the projected pace curve for the race you are handicapping as an overlay against the average pace (which will be a straight line) and the difference in the curves will be the "work performed."

The area above the average indicates a faster speed at that point of the race and the area below gives a lower speed and the value or size of the area which is calculated and you will have the energy expended.

Pace is not just surface-centric. Pace is primarily environmental-centric, but track configuration, distance, and race shape are important integral factors.

Cratos, can you post a screen shot of this side by side comparison of curves. I'd like to try to reproduce it using a manual method on an 8.5 x 11 sheet of paper...could I use the par times from Bris as the straight line average? And then choose a representative race from each horses' PP's?

[Clocker]

Originally Posted by VigorsTheGrey

And then choose a representative race from each horses' PP's?

Horses are herd animals and pace is a group effort. The composition of the herd changes from race to race.

If a lone "E" takes the lead and isn't pushed, the early pace is going to be a lot slower than if there are 3 "E"s fighting for the lead. The question isn't what is a representative pace for a horse, it is what is the horse capable of today, what it is the likely competitive pace today, and can the horse win against that pace.

[pandy]

Originally Posted by fiznow

What I wonder is, are horses born for a special running style, is it in their blood? Is it a question of breeding? Or are they just trained for one? Would Zenyatta have won her races as a frontrunner? Would American Pharoah have won the triple crown as a closer? (Sorry if this doesn't fit in this thread but it just came to my mind).

I think ordinary horses are likely to disappoint if you try to change their style. Great horses like AP and Zen, I would think that they could have been trained to change their style and they still would have been successful.

[pandy]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

You had an "auto-bet" situation....don't we all have at least one of those in our arsenal?
Here's one I found recently--using Quirin Running Style and Speed Points only. I didn't need to know anything further--to know this was a unique situation--and this pace scenario was tailor-made for a rare P-8 . He cannot handle any pace pressure at all.

This was a unique situation---as was your horse. My day-to-day 'capping usually requires more info than a pace box.

what track was this?

[VigorsTheGrey]

Originally Posted by Clocker

Horses are herd animals and pace is a group effort. The composition of the herd changes from race to race.

If a lone "E" takes the lead and isn't pushed, the early pace is going to be a lot slower than if there are 3 "E"s fighting for the lead. The question isn't what is a representative pace for a horse, it is what is the horse capable of today, what it is the likely competitive pace today, and can the horse win against that pace.

Thanks, I'll focus on those three items...A perfect example was Sat's Classic Stakes at Charles Town. Donworth simply could not win against the pace and position senario developed by Stanford...so I think a fourth consideration surely must include the shape of the course itself. If this race on Saturday was run on a complete straightaway...I think Donworth may have won...Pace and race positioning was the determining factor here no doubt...A good ride by Javier. Hope Donworth hits the charmed circle soon, He deserves it...

[traynor]

Originally Posted by Capper Al

Please remember that the question in this thread isn't about pace theory. It's about pace usage and implementation. There are plenty of threads in PA that argue for and against pace. Here we assume anyone pace figure works and is correct. How would you use it?

It can be safely assumed that if one is purchasing pace figures/pace analysis, whoever developed/marketed those figures should provide explicit, detailed instructions on how to apply them.

If those explicit, detailed instructions on how to apply them are NOT part of the package, one should rightfully consider why that is so. The more "interpretation" that is required, the more likely it is that the specific figures in question are simply descriptions, rather than prescriptions. The difference is critical.

Consider the simplistic average (or "projection") of positions at a given point in a race. The question is not whether or not the figures are "accurate"--they may be excruciatingly accurate in minute detail. The question is rather "do they really mean anything, other than describing what happened (rather than what will happen)"?

That is not theory--that is hardcore application. Consider Quirin's response to Beyer's question of how he used his (Quirin's) pace figures--"I look at them."
It may be that you are looking at/purchasing the wrong pace figures. The "right" pace figures should INCLUDE explicit, detailed instructions on how to apply them. If they do not, the reason may be simply that those figures are not particularly useful to other than the "I am the sharpest tack in the box, solving a great mystery" school of handicapping.

Rather than trying to make the pace figures (you are currently using or considering using) do something they are unable to do (predict future race scenarios), it might be more useful to find better pace figures. Or to look for (or develop yourself) the app that creates its own pace figures and uses those pace figures in combination with the pace figures/values/projections of all the entries in a given race to perform a (predictive) pace analysis of probable race outcomes. I chose the latter alternative. Not a trivial task, but well worth the effort.

[Capper Al]

All my pace figures are mine or BRIS'. I have way too many figs of my own for speed, class, pace, timeform, jockey and trainer. So much so that I have totally confused myself as to which ones to use and when.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Capper Al

All my pace figures are mine or BRIS'. I have way too many figs of my own for speed, class, pace, timeform, jockey and trainer. So much so that I have totally confused myself as to which ones to use and when.

Welcome to my world.

[Nutz and Boltz]

Originally Posted by Capper Al

All my pace figures are mine or BRIS'. I have way too many figs of my own for speed, class, pace, timeform, jockey and trainer. So much so that I have totally confused myself as to which ones to use and when.

Information overload, a handicapper nightmare, when do you use which figures!

[Capper Al]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

Welcome to my world.

Sometimes I wonder if we all are not crunching the same numbers secretly.

[Cratos]

Originally Posted by Nutz and Boltz

Information overload, a handicapper nightmare, when do you use which figures!

There shouldn't be information "overload" because if you have that problem, you are just collecting data and not analyzing it.

Using someone else's processed data is very risky; especially if you don't know and understand their assumptions.

[Speed Figure]

Originally Posted by Capper Al

Sometimes I wonder if we all are not crunching the same numbers secretly.

I'm sure we are, but it's clear were not getting the same results!