A moment of clarity

[Stillriledup]

Just remember that pretty good young horses with talent can always jump up to a Beyer much higher than they have ever gotten, they have it in them.

Also, the beyers you're looking at on paper were not recorded under the current medication rules and tight security of the derby, just something to think about.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by bks

Danzing Candy Ran a 100 Beyer, and beat Exaggerator and Mor Spirit doing so. That alone puts him above about 3/4 of the horses listed above.

He folded like a tent at 9F and now needs to go 10F. He ran just like his dam sire Songandaprayer who ran the fastest first half mile in Derby history only to be gassed at top of stretch. I will be tossing this horse from the win pool and might toss entirely even though I respect the rider, Raise A Native both sides, and family 1.

[bks]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

He folded like a tent at 9F and now needs to go 10F. He ran just like his dam sire Songandaprayer who ran the fastest first half mile in Derby history only to be gassed at top of stretch. I will be tossing this horse from the win pool and might toss entirely even though I respect the rider, Raise A Native both sides, and family 1.

Not sure what that race tells us. He got crushed, but he basically ran off that race. He went 22 flat, 45.1 on a heavy track he had no business travelling that fast over.

What if he only need to go 47.1 during the Derby?

He's the clear key to the whole race and very interesting in that he's the only one with a chance to dictate pace and wire the field, a la the San Felipe. If he and Nyquist are left alone on the front with a reasonable pace, forget anyone else winning. If he is somehow by himself through a 47.3 half and a 1.11.3 3/4, he'll need to have those distance limitations you're talking abut because if he doesn't he can come home in 51 seconds and earn roses.

[SecretAgentMan]

Originally Posted by bks

Not sure what that race tells us. He got crushed, but he basically ran off that race. He went 22 flat, 45.1 on a heavy track he had no business travelling that fast over.

What if he only need to go 47.1 during the Derby?

He's the clear key to the whole race and very interesting in that he's the only one with a chance to dictate pace and wire the field, a la the San Felipe. If he and Nyquist are left alone on the front with a reasonable pace, forget anyone else winning. If he is somehow by himself through a 47.3 half and a 1.11.3 3/4, he'll need to have those distance limitations you're talking abut because if he doesn't he can come home in 51 seconds and earn roses.

If he sets a soft pace, I guarantee you Outwork will be on his rear ready to.pounce on him. Nyquist will be breathing down both their necks at the top of the stretch or even sooner. I would love to see Danzig, Outwork & Nyquist fighting for the pace & lead & kicking out splits of 22 & 45 & have all 3 fold like cheap tents & have all longshots fill the super, but that probably won't happen, lol!

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by bks

Not sure what that race tells us. He got crushed, but he basically ran off that race. He went 22 flat, 45.1 on a heavy track he had no business travelling that fast over.

What if he only need to go 47.1 during the Derby?

He's not those lone speed. Outwork could also be a huge factor dictating the pace in this race. Perhaps we see a Trinniberg and Bodemeiseter suicide up front with one holding on to a piece. There are too many solid pacers and closing horses in my opinion to use either on top. Neither has demonstrated any sufficient speed beyond 8.5F. Neither looked like War Emblem. I could be way off but seems like the type of setup that favors a stalker or mid-pack horse as the deep closers would have too much ground to make up.

[SecretAgentMan]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

He's not those lone speed. Outwork could also be a huge factor dictating the pace in this race. Perhaps we see a Trinniberg and Bodemeiseter suicide up front with one holding on to a piece. There are too many solid pacers and closing horses in my opinion to use either on top. Neither has demonstrated any sufficient speed beyond 8.5F. Neither looked like War Emblem. I could be way off but seems like the type of setup that favors a stalker or mid-pack horse as the deep closers would have too much ground to make up.

I agree, I believe the derby winner will be a stalker or mid pack. The deep closers will be too far back, but there may be rain in the forecast, & we may be in for a wild ride.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by SecretAgentMan

but there may be rain in the forecast, & we may be in for a wild ride.

I am a degreed meteorologist and yes, a forecast model shows potential for rain May 7th but those forecast models are as accurate 12 days out as Andrew Beyer is picking a Derby winner.

[SecretAgentMan]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

I am a degreed meteorologist and yes, a forecast model shows potential for rain May 7th but those forecast models are as accurate 12 days out as Andrew Beyer is picking a Derby winner.

Lmao, I agree!

[depalma113]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

He's not those lone speed. Outwork could also be a huge factor dictating the pace in this race.

Outwork's last work sure looked like they won't no part of the lead.

[SecretAgentMan]

Originally Posted by depalma113

Outwork's last work sure looked like they won't no part of the lead.

I never understood why a trainer wouldn't try to rate his horse in his last prep before the derby instead of a workout before the derby. Doesn't the trainer want to see how his horse is gonna rate vs competition?

I don't think Outwork will be up front with Danzig, but he will be right behind him.

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by SecretAgentMan

I never understood why a trainer wouldn't try to rate his horse in his last prep before the derby instead of a workout before the derby. Doesn't the trainer want to see how his horse is gonna rate vs competition?

I don't think Outwork will be up front with Danzig, but he will be right behind him.

Not all trainers.
Your comment brings to mind what Laz Barrera did many years ago with his Derby speedster, Bold Forbes. He had him making 2 mile breezes before the Derby and later he ate them up going gate-to-wire.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter

im starting to like Creator more and more

I'm not trying to talk anyone off Creator. He's good and improving. But I thought he got a pretty good pace setup and also saved quite a bit of ground in that last race relative to some of the other horses.

[dballard125]

Bump