Derby handicapping approach-no race like it.

[SecretAgentMan]

Originally Posted by ronsmac

Anything is possible, but when you set a fast pace and blow up. Then there's a tendency to go a little slower next out. If Danzig Candy goes slower earlier which I expect, then he's a real threat. Nyquist has good tactical speed and a horse I bailed on a few days ago who I'm giving 1 more shot is Whitmore. He's probably a hanger but has been ridden incorrectly. He has lots of early speed and has been taken back. I'm hoping they use his speed and have him no worse than 4th on the first turn.

Whitmore reminds me of Giacomo, he's right there in his preps making big moves at the top of the stretch & coming within 1/2 length but hanging. Like the jockey knows he can win but he's holding him back for the derby, strange I know, but maybe he really is just hanging.

Whitmore is the only horse that shows that kind of move which could explode into a KD win.

[VigorsTheGrey]

Originally Posted by SecretAgentMan

If you like Nyquist on top of exotics, do you winder how he will start the race? Like, will he try to wire the field? Will he stalk the pace? I know if Danzig Candy gets out & runs the same splits as in SA derby, Nyquist will burn up. Or will Nyquist fall back like his Juvenile race.

This derby is difficult in trying to figure out what some horses will do like Nyquist. We know what the closers will do, not a secret because they have only one way of running, but Nyquist has several.

Trainer Doug has him on a different workout regime from a video that I say yesterday. If I remember right, had him galloping a long distance and then finishing up with his work...would this signal a pressing style? Maybe. I just think Nyquist has the tactical speed to adjust and as long as he is ahead of 75 percent of the field down the backside, he will be tough to beat. The horse is a smart horse and he will be adjusted to the big crowd having experienced that on BC day.

[glengarry]

Originally Posted by VigorsTheGrey

Trainer Doug has him on a different workout regime from a video that I say yesterday. If I remember right, had him galloping a long distance and then finishing up with his work...would this signal a pressing style? Maybe. I just think Nyquist has the tactical speed to adjust and as long as he is ahead of 75 percent of the field down the backside, he will be tough to beat. The horse is a smart horse and he will be adjusted to the big crowd having experienced that on BC day.

For a horse with only 2 preps overall and only 1 2 turn race this year, I'm a bit puzzled how little is being asked of Nyquist in his works. Maintenance mode only on Saturday, with likely another easy work at the end of the week. His trainer has won the KD, so he must know more than me.

[glengarry]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Indeed I do.

Do you see how much time and effort people put into handicapping the Derby? Why do you think that is?

It really is JUST ANOTHER HORSE RACE.

99.9% of these people aren't putting anywhere near the effort they should into the 364 other days (or 363 since everyone is closed on Christmas), so they invariably look at the Derby as something "different" when it really isn't.

So the problem isn't Beyer. The problem is you. You're way over-analyzing the Derby and shortchanging every other race you handicap.

Beyer was right.

Yes, there are some things you might look at for the Derby that you might not look at for most other races, but then again, lots of races have something unique about them where you might concentrate or look at something you might not ordinarily look at for the majority of other races out there (like a full field of 2yo maidens).

It's just another horse race? Tell that to the trainers, jockeys, and owners. The race offers the chance at a life changing score for a relatively small wager. You don't have to compete for money with the CRW guys, aka, to some people, as the past posters, and the super trainers. You won't bet a 3 to one horse at the bell and watch him pay 5.40. The triples and exactas, even with favorites or a top 3 choice winning, are usually enormous. The race should be allotted extra time because the rewards are so worth it. More time needs to be spent because more information is made available to the public, especially videotaped workouts. Try getting them for any other race.

[VigorsTheGrey]

Everyone keeps saying how moderate the crop is this year and how low the Beyers...but if that is indeed the case, doesn't THAT point to using Nyquist as the obvious best of a mediocre crop? It just might be the year the BC Juv curse is lifted for that reason.

[SecretAgentMan]

Originally Posted by VigorsTheGrey

Everyone keeps saying how moderate the crop is this year and how low the Beyers...but if that is indeed the case, doesn't THAT point to using Nyquist as the obvious best of a mediocre crop? It just might be the year the BC Juv curse is lifted for that reason.

BC Juv curse was broken in 2007 by Street Sense. And from memory, mediocre crops tend to bring longshots in as winners.

[luisbe]

Originally Posted by VigorsTheGrey

I think Nyquist has a good chance of winning...but I think he may go off at 3-1.

I can get 3-1 on a horse anytime with much less competition. So from a wagering aspect betting Nyquist just to win seems like a bad bet to me.

...

I'd take 3-1 blinded and pulling bills from my 4 pockets. I think he'll be closer to 9-5.
Sit down and wait.

[SecretAgentMan]

Originally Posted by luisbe

I'd take 3-1 blinded and pulling bills from my 4 pockets. I think he'll be closer to 9-5.
Sit down and wait.

You think Nyquist will be 9-5?? Hmm....IMO, no way he's less than 5-2 on derby day.

[davew]

Originally Posted by VigorsTheGrey

I think Nyquist has a good chance of winning...but I think he may go off at 3-1.

I can get 3-1 on a horse anytime with much less competition. So from a wagering aspect betting Nyquist just to win seems like a bad bet to me.

His value comes in assuming he IS going to win, then singling him on top in the horizontals and verticals...Betting on who is going to run 2nd is real important here because THAT might unlock the vertical exotics bonanzas....

Assume Nyquist wins, then assume Exaggerator, or Gun Runner, or Creator for 2nd and then fill in and box the underside of the ticket with likely candidates....Then on another ticket, the same cold 1-2, but with boxcar longshots boxed for third and fourth...that's how some of my tickets will look like.

But you are right, I won't know exactly till racing day what the cold 1-2 will be...

So do I, but I am not going to spend hours trying to figure the cold superfecta, trifecta and exacta- the races before and after to get the Pick-3's and 4's and doubles. I have done that in the past, and either miss a horse that pops in there, or include enough to have them all, but don't do much better than break even.

This year I am just going to bet NYQUIST to show. Unless something changes, I feel he has over a 70% chance of hitting the board and would be shocked if he paid less than $3.60

[VigorsTheGrey]

Originally Posted by SecretAgentMan

BC Juv curse was broken in 2007 by Street Sense. And from memory, mediocre crops tend to bring longshots in as winners.

Thanks for pointing that out...I had forgotten about Street Sense....but I don't think you can rightly say that Nyquist is a mediocre horse...I don't think we have seen the proverbial bottom of him yet and he looks to be getting bigger, stronger....

I sure wish North America would track actual weights of horses like they do in Hong Kong but I guess that would be asking too much of a highly disparate and de-centralized industry..

[SecretAgentMan]

Originally Posted by VigorsTheGrey

Thanks for pointing that out...I had forgotten about Street Sense....but I don't think you can rightly say that Nyquist is a mediocre horse...I don't think we have seen the proverbial bottom of him yet and he looks to be getting bigger, stronger....

I sure wish North America would track actual weights of horses like they do in Hong Kong but I guess that would be asking too much of a highly disparate and de-centralized industry..

By no means am.I saying Nyquist is mediocre, I was just pointing out that you stated this Yeats crop was mediocre over all. Nyquist is 7 for 7, & he may win the derby, but to me his beyers & times are not to par for a 7 for 7 undefeated horse that's a derby favorite, but maybe they don't need to be with this years crop.

[davew]

Originally Posted by SecretAgentMan

By no means am.I saying Nyquist is mediocre, I was just pointing out that you stated this Yeats crop was mediocre over all. Nyquist is 7 for 7, & he may win the derby, but to me his beyers & times are not to par for a 7 for 7 undefeated horse that's a derby favorite, but maybe they don't need to be with this years crop.

I don't think winning by 30 lengths and getting a HUGE Beyer is in the best interest of anything.

[VigorsTheGrey]

Originally Posted by SecretAgentMan

By no means am.I saying Nyquist is mediocre, I was just pointing out that you stated this Yeats crop was mediocre over all. Nyquist is 7 for 7, & he may win the derby, but to me his beyers & times are not to par for a 7 for 7 undefeated horse that's a derby favorite, but maybe they don't need to be with this years crop.

There's the desire to be right about which horse wins the Derby...that's fine.

Then there is the desire to cash a ticket. One of my tickets will single Nyquist as most likely winner.

The other will place him in the 2 hole.

A/bcd/bcdefg
A/bcdefg/bcd

bcd/A/bcdefg
bcdefg/A/bcd

$48 of $1 Tri's

A=Nyquist
b=Gun Runner
c=Brody's Cause
d=Exaggerator
d=Creator
e=Destin
g=My Man Sam

[CincyHorseplayer]

Originally Posted by glengarry

It's just another horse race? Tell that to the trainers, jockeys, and owners. The race offers the chance at a life changing score for a relatively small wager. You don't have to compete for money with the CRW guys, aka, to some people, as the past posters, and the super trainers. You won't bet a 3 to one horse at the bell and watch him pay 5.40. The triples and exactas, even with favorites or a top 3 choice winning, are usually enormous. The race should be allotted extra time because the rewards are so worth it. More time needs to be spent because more information is made available to the public, especially videotaped workouts. Try getting them for any other race.

It is just another horse race. Why is this ever barely a player's perspective? It's different for the connections. That is not our reality. How often do you win it and how often is it a life changing score? Because these are 3yo's going 10 furlongs and the realities of this race are muddy waters even for any of us who are 20 yr+ handicappers. Looking at and betting thousands of races a year over a big span of time does put this particular race into perspective.It's 1 race. That's it. I'll end with my bold statement since everybody else is making bold statements. If this race is so amplified for you and of this utmost holy importance of hitting=you are f**ked! The rest of the year of your sorry game is going to beat you up and break you down and leave you bruised and butt naked if not broke! If 1 race is of this much importance it can't be any other way. I'm excited about it every year and especially this year because I do think there is big profit potential. But every year perspectives get warped and it becomes bigger than it actually is. As horseplayers I expect we all share the disillusionment equally and don't buy into the hype. The "Life changing score" chorus? It allows the unbridled freedom of stupidity to creep back in for players IMO. And I know because I've been down that road. Experience and Mint Juleps make the Derby day worthy! And occasionally the bet too

[jahura2]

Originally Posted by CincyHorseplayer

It is just another horse race. Why is this ever barely a player's perspective? It's different for the connections. That is not our reality. How often do you win it and how often is it a life changing score? Because these are 3yo's going 10 furlongs and the realities of this race are muddy waters even for any of us who are 20 yr+ handicappers. Looking at and betting thousands of races a year over a big span of time does put this particular race into perspective.It's 1 race. That's it. I'll end with my bold statement since everybody else is making bold statements. If this race is so amplified for you and of this utmost holy importance of hitting=you are f**ked! The rest of the year of your sorry game is going to beat you up and break you down and leave you bruised and butt naked if not broke! If 1 race is of this much importance it can't be any other way. I'm excited about it every year and especially this year because I do think there is big profit potential. But every year perspectives get warped and it becomes bigger than it actually is. As horseplayers I expect we all share the disillusionment equally and don't buy into the hype. The "Life changing score" chorus? It allows the unbridled freedom of stupidity to creep back in for players IMO. And I know because I've been down that road. Experience and Mint Juleps make the Derby day worthy! And occasionally the bet too

Agree with Cincy wholeheartedly. Dont get me wrong I love the Derby, but it is just another betting opportunity. Usually it provides a chance for good value due to the amounts of "sentimental" and "uninformed" monies that are wagered. The race gets way over analyzed and you cant let the millions of opinions affect your basic strategy. As CJ said earlier it needs to be handicapped like any other race. Speed, Form , Pace and Class just like most races. I dont expect a life changing score but I do expect value for my bet, the same thing I look for whether its the Derby or the fifth at Tampa.