how serious do you take destin

[boys at tosconova]

lemme get this str8. the owners didn't want to run destin again after the TB because they were afraid of a bounce...

this is comical

[PaceMasterT]

Originally Posted by raybo

I would not be surprised if Destin gets the 1 1/4 miles, and finishes it well. With 2 weeks, to go a lot can be done in that time period to sharpen his form. His pedigree says he can get the distance without much problem, it's just a matter of having him in peak form come Derby Day. 3 year olds, at a new distance, new track and surface for most, new surroundings and distractions, 20 horses in the gate and trying to get some position by the 1st turn, anything can, and often does, happen. Nothing will surprise me too much in the Derby.

Destin is one that you can't throw out. His running style appears perfectly suited to the current pace scenario setup for the Derby. However, every one of his route races seem to be at a way slower pace than expected Derby pace. As such, I'm assuming he will use too much energy getting into his desired position. However, this is not an immediate toss out, because you don't know if he can handle a faster pace since he has not faced it yet. So, not a toss out, but definitely not a horse you can pound with any certainty. IMHO you need to find a different key horse for the win position and have minor bets as insurance if Destin wins.

[PaceMasterT]

And not to be "wishy-washy", I'm throwing out all of these for the win based on the current pace scenario:

Lani, Creator, My Man Sam, Brody's Cause, Mo Tom, Suddenbreakingnews, Trojan Nation, Oscar Nominated, Tom's Ready.

And those that I don't think are good enough:

Danzig Candy, Outwork, Shagaf, Mohaymen.

And the ones I'm skeptical about:

Destin.


That leaves me 6 currently that I have to analyze to key in the win position. Currently I'm leaning with Mor Spirit as far as pace/running style. I hate betting Baffert though. But, if you like Mor Spirit, you have to like Exaggerator, so I'm currently having most of my bets structured keying these two in the win place position.

[Mc990]

Originally Posted by boys at tosconova

lemme get this str8. the owners didn't want to run destin again after the TB because they were afraid of a bounce...

this is comical

Destin ran a monster "top" in the TB derby. A race good enough to bury this field. I think the layoff is being overhyped... If this were any other horse race, this would be looked at as shrewd management. Horse most certainly needed time to recover. Just because no horse has won the derby off an 8 week layoff doesn't mean it isn't the right move... How much of a sample size do we really have (derby specific)?

There is certainly plenty of non derby specific data that says this is the right move. I'll take the "objective numbers" over the "media narrative" every time.

I remember when all you heard before the '06 derby was how Barbaro was such a monster but there was no way a horse could win off a 5 week layoff. Looking back, I think we can all say that was a ridiculous sentiment.

Things change in sports all the time and newfound metrics drive much of that change. Heck, remember when running backs actually mattered in the NFL... Remember when big men mattered in the NBA. Remember when pitchers actually threw compete games. One thing is for sure... Horse racing is by far the least progressive sport there is. Would anyone be surprised if we all realized 8 weeks may be preferable to 4 weeks into the derby...

Bottom line- I think Destin has a big shot, at a price

[boys at tosconova]

Originally Posted by Mc990

Destin ran a monster "top" in the TB derby. A race good enough to bury this field. I think the layoff is being overhyped... If this were any other horse race, this would be looked at as shrewd management. Horse most certainly needed time to recover. Just because no horse has won the derby off an 8 week layoff doesn't mean it isn't the right move... How much of a sample size do we really have (derby specific)?

There is certainly plenty of non derby specific data that says this is the right move. I'll take the "objective numbers" over the "media narrative" every time.

I remember when all you heard before the '06 derby was how Barbaro was such a monster but there was no way a horse could win off a 5 week layoff. Looking back, I think we can all say that was a ridiculous sentiment.

Things change in sports all the time and newfound metrics drive much of that change. Heck, remember when running backs actually mattered in the NFL... Remember when big men mattered in the NBA. Remember when pitchers actually threw compete games. One thing is for sure... Horse racing is by far the least progressive sport there is. Would anyone be surprised if we all realized 8 weeks may be preferable to 4 weeks into the derby...

Bottom line- I think Destin has a big shot, at a price

of course you do. and i can't argue that. and i want to use him as well. that track record @ TB carries a lot of weight and upcoming hope... not to mention the horse should be in good striking position.

but regrdless of PP, i can't help to liken the horses situation to that of a boxer trying to delay fighting the top 3 contenders until he has to. regardless of his performance in the TB derby this is a strong sign of weakness imo

[SecretAgentMan]

Originally Posted by Mc990

Destin ran a monster "top" in the TB derby. A race good enough to bury this field. I think the layoff is being overhyped... If this were any other horse race, this would be looked at as shrewd management. Horse most certainly needed time to recover. Just because no horse has won the derby off an 8 week layoff doesn't mean it isn't the right move... How much of a sample size do we really have (derby specific)?

There is certainly plenty of non derby specific data that says this is the right move. I'll take the "objective numbers" over the "media narrative" every time.

I remember when all you heard before the '06 derby was how Barbaro was such a monster but there was no way a horse could win off a 5 week layoff. Looking back, I think we can all say that was a ridiculous sentiment.

Things change in sports all the time and newfound metrics drive much of that change. Heck, remember when running backs actually mattered in the NFL... Remember when big men mattered in the NBA. Remember when pitchers actually threw compete games. One thing is for sure... Horse racing is by far the least progressive sport there is. Would anyone be surprised if we all realized 8 weeks may be preferable to 4 weeks into the derby...

Bottom line- I think Destin has a big shot, at a price

Comparing Destin to Barbaro is ridiculous! Barbaro was u defeated & his times in every race were spectacular, go back & look, & his beyers were nice as well.

Destin lost twice, he hasn't raced at 1 1/8 race, he's 8 weeks off, that's only 3 weeks more than Barbaro.

Yes he did break the track record, but w/o another prep before the derby & not many workouts in this 8 weeks, I think he won't hit the board.

[Psychotic Parakeet]

Has any horse won the Derby off of an 8 week layoff and/or never used a 9f prep?

[SecretAgentMan]

Originally Posted by Psychotic Parakeet

Has any horse won the Derby off of an 8 week layoff and/or never used a 9f prep?

I believe the answer is no & no, correct me if I'm wrong guys.

[dballard125]

I think he's going to struggle getting another 3/16 at Churchill and I also don't think he's fast enough to beat Nyquist.

The breakdown of this is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ezXqiZSSgKc

[boys at tosconova]

Originally Posted by PaceMasterT

And not to be "wishy-washy", I'm throwing out all of these for the win based on the current pace scenario:

Lani, Creator, My Man Sam, Brody's Cause, Mo Tom, Suddenbreakingnews, Trojan Nation, Oscar Nominated, Tom's Ready.

And those that I don't think are good enough:

Danzig Candy, Outwork, Shagaf, Mohaymen.

And the ones I'm skeptical about:

Destin.


That leaves me 6 currently that I have to analyze to key in the win position. Currently I'm leaning with Mor Spirit as far as pace/running style. I hate betting Baffert though. But, if you like Mor Spirit, you have to like Exaggerator, so I'm currently having most of my bets structured keying these two in the win place position.

i'd love to hear you try and sell playing majesto over creator,mms,brody and sbn..let alone the others. describe the race to me.

[Mc990]

Originally Posted by SecretAgentMan

Comparing Destin to Barbaro is ridiculous! Barbaro was u defeated & his times in every race were spectacular, go back & look, & his beyers were nice as well.

Destin lost twice, he hasn't raced at 1 1/8 race, he's 8 weeks off, that's only 3 weeks more than Barbaro.

Yes he did break the track record, but w/o another prep before the derby & not many workouts in this 8 weeks, I think he won't hit the board.

Not comparing Destin to Barbaro... Although Destin is faster than he was at this point in their 3yr old campaigns (especially relative to their respective crops). By the way, I bet Barbaro

The point I'm trying to make is that the narrative was that a 5 week layoff was a negative for the horse. Something very similar is happening with Destin. If the 8 week layoff is a negative, I want someone to provide me with the actual data to back it up. Otherwise it's just an assertion.

[PowerUpPaynter]

Destin is trying to do something no runner has done in the past 25 years:
hit the board in the Derby following a layoff of 45 days or more.

[Robert Fischer]

May be too cheap. This guy beat a favored stablemate twice(red flags).

He does have a high cruising speed, and an extra gear in the stretch. If he gets a good relatively forward trip and has some momentum he could keep on going and hit the board. I'm leaning towards including him.

[Valuist]

Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter

I may have already said this but before you know it Todd Pletcher is going to have multiple derby wins under his belt. With the lack of a strong field maybe he picks up a win this year.

Pletcher has burned a ton of money in the Derby. He's a reason to fade Destin, IMO.