Oil holds $40 - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

_______ · 04-18-2016, 05:51 PM

Doha failed and oil still trades above $40.

It's interesting to see that the Brent/WTI spread has widened.

I can understand that no one thought Doha would succeed and it was priced in but why would the spread widen afterwards?

The Saudi's threaten to pump more oil into an oversupplied market and that hits U.S. production harder?

Does anyone have a theory?

PaceAdvantage · 04-18-2016, 11:17 PM

Maybe the instability in the Middle East and the empowerment of Iran by the Obama administration is putting a floor into the price of oil with the anticipation of a coming shit storm...

tucker6 · 04-28-2016, 06:40 AM

https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/techni...ast-45bbl.html

WTI Crude Oil broke above $45/bbl on a mixture of factors including a weak US Dollar, strong demand out of China, and a more balanced supply and demand picture than we’ve had in nearly two years. Now that we’ve crossed above the 200-DMA, which acted as such strong resistance since crossing below in early 2014, it appears there is little looking back. This change in market sentiment is significant because a move above $50 would likely start to see the low number of active rigs, a number that declined to balance the global supply glut, could start to rise again.

tucker6 · 05-05-2016, 02:49 PM

One of my clients is in the oil and gas compression equipment supply business, and they are pumping out the proposals these days and a couple of them are starting to come in. For two years, customers have been on the sidelines. No longer. The industry is betting on higher prices.

barn32 · 05-05-2016, 04:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tucker6

One of my clients is in the oil and gas compression equipment supply business, and they are pumping out the proposals these days and a couple of them are starting to come in. For two years, customers have been on the sidelines. No longer. The industry is betting on higher prices.

They have to bet on higher prices...it's their only hope.

tucker6 · 05-05-2016, 05:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by barn32

They have to bet on higher prices...it's their only hope.

True, but when they start using real money I notice.

tanner12oz · 05-15-2016, 06:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tucker6

True, but when they start using real money I notice.

the extremes are the norm anymore..you have had a couple insane spikes and collapses in oil over the last 8 years...it wouldn't surprise me at all to see another mega spike to $100 followed by another epic crash. Wash rinse repeat.

tucker6 · 05-15-2016, 08:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tanner12oz

the extremes are the norm anymore..you have had a couple insane spikes and collapses in oil over the last 8 years...it wouldn't surprise me at all to see another mega spike to $100 followed by another epic crash. Wash rinse repeat.

I agree with you and would be very happy to have the price go to $100. Bought oil and related stocks when oil was in the low 30's and so far so good.

tanner12oz · 05-15-2016, 09:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tucker6

I agree with you and would be very happy to have the price go to $100. Bought oil and related stocks when oil was in the low 30's and so far so good.

I started buying in August and averaged down..currently green and have collect a couple dividends in the process. If we can hit a $50 handle on oil I think the majors can make it work, keep dividends in place and just grind it out. I think we are close to being out of the danger zone for the well run companies. The rogue, reckless companies though will continue to feel pain and need to be killed off

tucker6 · 05-16-2016, 06:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tanner12oz

I started buying in August and averaged down..currently green and have collect a couple dividends in the process. If we can hit a $50 handle on oil I think the majors can make it work, keep dividends in place and just grind it out. I think we are close to being out of the danger zone for the well run companies. The rogue, reckless companies though will continue to feel pain and need to be killed off

I think there were 60 oil related companies that filed for bankruptcy or receivership two weeks ago. Most people don't realize that companies going out of business is healthy for stocks and the industry as it frees up needed capital for the healthiest in the group.

tanner12oz · 05-16-2016, 12:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tucker6

I think there were 60 oil related companies that filed for bankruptcy or receivership two weeks ago. Most people don't realize that companies going out of business is healthy for stocks and the industry as it frees up needed capital for the healthiest in the group.

goldman (who are probably the biggest conmen on wallstreet) flipped there stance on oil today and believe that we are now beginning to work our way through the glut of oil. U.S., Candada, Nigeria, Venezula are all dealing with falling production numbers while OPEC countries continue to pummel the market with barrels. They said this is a sweet spot for oil cuz at $60 you'll see more projects coming back online and create another surplus

tucker6 · 05-16-2016, 12:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tanner12oz

goldman (who are probably the biggest conmen on wallstreet) flipped there stance on oil today and believe that we are now beginning to work our way through the glut of oil. U.S., Candada, Nigeria, Venezula are all dealing with falling production numbers while OPEC countries continue to pummel the market with barrels. They said this is a sweet spot for oil cuz at $60 you'll see more projects coming back online and create another surplus

Yeah, I read that. With Goldman on board, it makes me want to jettison my holdings at $55 and buy in again at $40.

At some point, the spigot will turn off in the Middle East (either voluntarily or involuntarily), and you'll want to own oil and lots of it on that day.

tucker6 · 05-25-2016, 03:23 PM

Oil is sniffing $50 this week. Ended the day at $49.39. I think it holds here (give or take) for awhile. I think it trades low/mid 60's by year end though. Time is on the side of the bulls here. If low economic growth worldwide in conjunction with a huge vast oil supply surge didn't kill off everybody, I don't see what will. There is no long term reason to short oil. None.

PaceAdvantage · 05-25-2016, 03:24 PM

Every single time oil plunges, people (like me) are left wondering how the hell they didn't load up when it was, once again, down near historical lows...

Pardon me while I go kick some sand...

tucker6 · 05-25-2016, 07:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Every single time oil plunges, people (like me) are left wondering how the hell they didn't load up when it was, once again, down near historical lows...

Pardon me while I go kick some sand...

Mike, I said the same thing after the 2008 crash when the auto industry stocks (and many others) could be purchased for pennies on the dollar. I kicked myself then, and said it wasn't going to happen to me this time with oil. Still took my broker to give me a backbone to do it. Easy to say 'buy' on a message board. Much more difficult when you have to write the check.