Jockey don't matter tho

[no breathalyzer]

just watch SA R#6 from today.... .. man handled and out finished Stewart Elliott .............. also why take 1-1 when you can get 10-1 playing the double.

[Stillriledup]

Not only do jocks matter, but they are ALL that matters. BUT not in the way you think. (And no, nothing conspiratorial)

[no breathalyzer]

Originally Posted by Stillriledup

Not only do jocks matter, but they are ALL that matters. BUT not in the way you think. (And no, nothing conspiratorial)

There are many ways a jockey matters.. i can go on and on.. but people on here don't agree it seems for the most part

[no breathalyzer]

prob. shouldn't have made this thread.. too late now

[Stillriledup]

Originally Posted by no breathalyzer

There are many ways a jockey matters.. i can go on and on.. but people on here don't agree it seems for the most part

People think that jockey matters when you 'upgrade' from a low pct jock to a leading jock, it goes far deeper IMO.

[SuperPickle]

Raffie rode the horse perfect... however I think he kind of found his friends. He had run multiple 2nd's and 3rd's at the same level. Those races had bigger fields (7-10 horses) and better horses.

So yes Raffie helps but I'll bet the figure came back about the same as the last couple of races.

[no breathalyzer]

Originally Posted by Stillriledup

People think that jockey matters when you 'upgrade' from a low pct jock to a leading jock, it goes far deeper IMO.

those the ones to stay away from everyone can see them.. heck i made some great cashes after a '' perceived top jock'' gets off when the horse pops a couple starts later on.. grated the replacement jock has to be capable........... unless its NY and its Lizzy or Dizzy then its an auto play

[no breathalyzer]

I just wanted to add alot of trainers use certain jockeys as setup jockeys meaning they will give them the mount when the horse is not quite ready for max effort ..so when the horse is ready it is like a double BOOST

[v j stauffer]

Originally Posted by no breathalyzer

I just wanted to add alot of trainers use certain jockeys as setup jockeys meaning they will give them the mount when the horse is not quite ready for max effort ..so when the horse is ready it is like a double BOOST

That happens a lot.

[burnsy]

Originally Posted by Stillriledup

People think that jockey matters when you 'upgrade' from a low pct jock to a leading jock, it goes far deeper IMO.

It is. The difference of a good jockey and a great one is probably not a lot. This is a sport, the jock is a professional athlete. Once you make it on the biggest tacks in the circuit there is only so much you can get out of changing a jockey. Now look, I'm not saying its zero, but the horse being fast and athletic is probably 85 to 95% percent of the deal. I get the feeling that some people believe that a jockey can make a horse have more talent and faster. The jock has little to do with that end of it, in fact. Yes, some are better than others but if you constantly count on that to make bets...good luck to you, I'm looking for odds and chances...probability. That's based almost solely on what I believe the horses ability is, that day, in that particular race, not who the jock is. The only time I bet every day is during the Saratoga meet, everyone of those folks can win, on the right mount, or they would not be here. You can say that about almost every big meet and I only bet those kind of meets. The jock is top notch at these places or no mounts, that simple.

They all make errors, every one does in sports, that's part of any game....it just is. Sometimes I think horse players don't give enough credit to "trip luck" as I call it. They cry, bitch and moan when they get checked, blocked or blind switched but when they win, not a peep. I'm not afraid to admit that many times I have cashed or not cashed because of blind luck. That's just another reason you want the highest price with the best chance. Because when the trips get confusing, that's why I love turf racing, you need some racing luck. That simple, if you handicap like I do. If there's a trip or "luck factor" because the field is somewhat evenly matched, why wouldn't you look for the best (prices/horses ability) and not who the jock is? At a track where almost every one of them is above capable.

SRU saying "its all that matters" is kind of foolish. You can put Jerry Bailey or Angel Cordero on "Spunky the mule" and he's still going to lose by 20 lengths. The stars of this sport is the horse. Without a good horse, you got squat......my friends.

[v j stauffer]

Originally Posted by burnsy

It is. The difference of a good jockey and a great one is probably not a lot. This is a sport, the jock is a professional athlete. Once you make it on the biggest tacks in the circuit there is only so much you can get out of changing a jockey. Now look, I'm not saying its zero, but the horse being fast and athletic is probably 85 to 95% percent of the deal. I get the feeling that some people believe that a jockey can make a horse have more talent and faster. The jock has little to do with that end of it, in fact. Yes, some are better than others but if you constantly count on that to make bets...good luck to you, I'm looking for odds and chances...probability. That's based almost solely on what I believe the horses ability is, that day, in that particular race, not who the jock is. The only time I bet every day is during the Saratoga meet, everyone of those folks can win, on the right mount, or they would not be here. You can say that about almost every big meet and I only bet those kind of meets. The jock is top notch at these places or no mounts, that simple.

They all make errors, every one does in sports, that's part of any game....it just is. Sometimes I think horse players don't give enough credit to "trip luck" as I call it. They cry, bitch and moan when they get checked, blocked or blind switched but when they win, not a peep. I'm not afraid to admit that many times I have cashed or not cashed because of blind luck. That's just another reason you want the highest price with the best chance. Because when the trips get confusing, that's why I love turf racing, you need some racing luck. That simple, if you handicap like I do. If there's a trip or "luck factor" because the field is somewhat evenly matched, why wouldn't you look for the best prices and not who the jock is? At a track where almost every one of them is above capable.

SRU saying "its all that matters" is kind of foolish. You can put Jerry Bailey or Angel Cordero on "Spunky the mule" and he's still going to lose by 20 lengths. The stars of this sport is the horse. Without a good horse, you got squat......my friends.

Superb post.

[burnsy]

Originally Posted by v j stauffer

Superb post.

Thanks, but I figure some one like you would agree with me. You don't become a good contest player by playing favorites and the "best jock" game. You become a good horse player by recognizing the ability of that horse, in that race, that day, and it is the most overwhelming factor to finding a square price........period. Yes, the jock can matter, but you can't "milk" multiple lengths of speed out of a horse, other wise some kid could enter their "riding pony", put a top jock on it and say it has a chance in hell.

[CincyHorseplayer]

In any competitive race let's just say you start with a generic oddsline where you make 4 contenders 4-1 and the rest of the probability goes to the field.

The tote opens up and everything is adjusted up or down according to the trainer and jockey. We adjust probability by things like probable pace, track profile, form interpretation etc etc and sometimes we end up on the same horses the public is betting but for vastly different reasons. Once you see this same spectacle play out at every track in the country you realize that is the only game you are playing. For every point of win probability that trainer and jockey stats add it subtracts from the payoff probability. You are just waiting for odds to be fair enough or patient enough to wait til they bet the wrong horse for the wrong reason. That's what I find the game boiled down to these days!

[Capper Al]

My analysis shows that jockeys matter over the long run. Using the jockey stat is as much art as it is science.

[Stillriledup]

Originally Posted by burnsy

It is. The difference of a good jockey and a great one is probably not a lot. This is a sport, the jock is a professional athlete. Once you make it on the biggest tacks in the circuit there is only so much you can get out of changing a jockey. Now look, I'm not saying its zero, but the horse being fast and athletic is probably 85 to 95% percent of the deal. I get the feeling that some people believe that a jockey can make a horse have more talent and faster. The jock has little to do with that end of it, in fact. Yes, some are better than others but if you constantly count on that to make bets...good luck to you, I'm looking for odds and chances...probability. That's based almost solely on what I believe the horses ability is, that day, in that particular race, not who the jock is. The only time I bet every day is during the Saratoga meet, everyone of those folks can win, on the right mount, or they would not be here. You can say that about almost every big meet and I only bet those kind of meets. The jock is top notch at these places or no mounts, that simple.

They all make errors, every one does in sports, that's part of any game....it just is. Sometimes I think horse players don't give enough credit to "trip luck" as I call it. They cry, bitch and moan when they get checked, blocked or blind switched but when they win, not a peep. I'm not afraid to admit that many times I have cashed or not cashed because of blind luck. That's just another reason you want the highest price with the best chance. Because when the trips get confusing, that's why I love turf racing, you need some racing luck. That simple, if you handicap like I do. If there's a trip or "luck factor" because the field is somewhat evenly matched, why wouldn't you look for the best (prices/horses ability) and not who the jock is? At a track where almost every one of them is above capable.

SRU saying "its all that matters" is kind of foolish. You can put Jerry Bailey or Angel Cordero on "Spunky the mule" and he's still going to lose by 20 lengths. The stars of this sport is the horse. Without a good horse, you got squat......my friends.

Good write up, but when I say a jock is all that matters, I mean something different. I'll respond later with a longer write up.