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Old 03-28-2016, 04:57 PM   #16
f2tornado
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The Future closes the day after FL Derby so that part helps. A decisive Mohaymen win this weekend might even get you better Future odds on Gun Runner than on Derby day. Keep in mind some bettors will be turned off by the slow time he won with. Agree the Bluegrass, Wood, and Ark winners will take some more money come Derby day but that does not guarantee the odds on any particular horse will be higher at that time. Some of that is already priced into the Future odds. Lots of factors like post, rider, workouts, etc. will have an impact on post time odds. There's also likely a much different betting crowd than what the Future wagers bring in. I'm expecting around 14-1 in the Future which is around where Destin and Danzing Candy finished after their 50 point prep wins in Future 3. Derby day odds should be similar barring a couple very strong wins in remaining preps.
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Old 03-29-2016, 09:15 PM   #17
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Isn't anyone concerned that he's gotten two very nice trips in a row?
Sat inside behind the same speed horse who couldn't get the distance.
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Old 03-29-2016, 09:51 PM   #18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour
Isn't anyone concerned that he's gotten two very nice trips in a row?
Sat inside behind the same speed horse who couldn't get the distance.


That's like saying Mohaymen & Nyquist got easy trips in every race. Good horses with good tactical speed with several gears make their own race happen.
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Old 03-30-2016, 08:01 AM   #19
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with all due respect fine sir, how much 'speed' does a 91 beyer carry? In my honest opinion ii think Gun Runner won because the field is pathetic and Mo Tom got stopped in his tracks twice.
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Old 03-30-2016, 01:45 PM   #20
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Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter
with all due respect fine sir, how much 'speed' does a 91 beyer carry? In my honest opinion ii think Gun Runner won because the field is pathetic and Mo Tom got stopped in his tracks twice.
For what it's worth, the Brisnet figure was a respectable 104. The pace figures good too. Seems high for such a slow race. Even if you equalize the time by track it would amount to 1:49 at Santa Anita, a figure from that has rarely lead to a Derby win. The horse has run slow 6F slits his entire career. The Derby leader will be 10 or more lengths ahead of him with 4 panels to go. All that said, hard to knock a Raise A Native sire line with conduit mare in tail female too much when all the horse has done is win. Modest improvement could at least put him in contention for exotics.
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Old 03-30-2016, 01:50 PM   #21
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Figure wise I trust CJ's assessment more than Beyer. He has Gun Runner rated at 113 which is right up there with the rest of the big dogs. Top figure is 117 on the year. I really like the pedigree on this one. The only thing that holds me back is his opposition and if this is his last race. Similar to Destin I want to see him out of Fair Grounds before the Derby, Tampa for Destin. Running away from his rivals is all the horse could do. And with his tactical speed he GIVES himself dream trips, he's not just lucky.
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Old 03-30-2016, 02:51 PM   #22
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Gun Runner is probably the only horse thus far I'm on the fence about. Last year I really liked International Star's LA prep campaign and despite knowing that American Pharoah was something special I was going to bet a few on the win and definitely use underneath in my exotics. Sadly, he scratched, but I wasn't afraid to use him despite the perceived lack of talent in those fields or the 6 week schedule others are quick to point out as being a difficult go, going into the derby. Why I like International Star so much was his ability to win from anywhere: outside post, rail post, winning move up the rail, winning move wide. etc.

Gun Runner to me is intriguing that I don't think he's had to work extensively hard for his victories and he's bred to get the distance. I am turned off about his slow times and his maturity issues in the lane, something I think may cost him, especially in a crowded derby field. He might be someone I leave off and hope that history of the 6 week break holds true.
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Old 04-18-2016, 10:48 PM   #23
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Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour
Isn't anyone concerned that he's gotten two very nice trips in a row?
Sat inside behind the same speed horse who couldn't get the distance.
I downgraded him for having two nice trips, but with the way the pace scenario is shaping up for the Derby, he may just get another.
I have changed my mind on this colt and now see him as a contender for the top slots.
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Old 04-19-2016, 12:37 AM   #24
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour
I downgraded him for having two nice trips, but with the way the pace scenario is shaping up for the Derby, he may just get another.
I have changed my mind on this colt and now see him as a contender for the top slots.
He is the stand out of the crop and will prove so. His pace numbers are far more superior than all the others. Him and Creator are top ranked on my sheet. Just from a statistical standpoint Gun Runner stands out.

RAN sire line (sire line produces high % of winners)
AWD of Sire >6.7 (12 of 16 winners)
Bris LP 96+ (14 of 16 winners)
New top Bris in last (9 of 16 winners)
Won @ mile or more @ 2 (11 of 16 winners)
E2/LP/Speed all 100+ in last

Based on data I collect the top contenders are Gun Runner and Creator

Mor Spirit, Suddenbreakingnews, and My Man Sam look strong as well.

This thing could also explode and Oscar Nominated wins.
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Old 04-19-2016, 12:49 AM   #25
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Huddy Goodjob
He is the stand out of the crop and will prove so. His pace numbers are far more superior than all the others. Him and Creator are top ranked on my sheet. Just from a statistical standpoint Gun Runner stands out.

RAN sire line (sire line produces high % of winners)
AWD of Sire >6.7 (12 of 16 winners)
Bris LP 96+ (14 of 16 winners)
New top Bris in last (9 of 16 winners)
Won @ mile or more @ 2 (11 of 16 winners)
E2/LP/Speed all 100+ in last

Based on data I collect the top contenders are Gun Runner and Creator

Mor Spirit, Suddenbreakingnews, and My Man Sam look strong as well.

This thing could also explode and Oscar Nominated wins.


Dude, the only horse that scares me as a long shot is Oscar Nominated. He will be put underneath in all my tickets, & I hope he doesn't win the race to clock my tickets.

Gun Runner is working out great, & the trainer is looking to tighten the screws on him next Monday. Asmussen will have him ready for the derby!
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Old 04-19-2016, 06:23 AM   #26
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Oscar nominated? I was tossing him. What an I missing?
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Old 04-19-2016, 09:31 AM   #27
Huddy Goodjob
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Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter
Oscar nominated? I was tossing him. What an I missing?
For me its the who can't win, but after looking closer really can win factor.

He ran a 96+ LP in last (14 of 16 winners)
Has a winning AWD
Ran a new top Bris speed in last (9 of 16)
Won @ a mile @ 2
Won by 3 lengths or more @ 2
Prep race on AW, has shown in past these horses love CH

With this crop anything can happen.

When you have the favorite running in a 7fl prep in Feb, throw a dart.
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Old 04-19-2016, 11:12 AM   #28
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bullet work yesterday morning

I just missed being there, but he went 5f 1:00 flat and Steve generally does not work his horses that fast. Do we break the LA Derby jinx this year?
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Old 04-19-2016, 12:18 PM   #29
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On Gunrunner and on Hall Of Fame nomination.

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-raci...or-partnership

Quote:
"He worked very well this morning and settled into Churchill very nicely," Asmussen said. "I was very pleased with the work; he goes over the racetrack really well. I'm obviously excited about our opportunity. "He's a tremendous individual as far as conformation, pedigree-wise. He has got a great attitude—just the whole package. He accepts what he's doing and is very energetic as far as training. He has always been very effortless over the racetrack, like his work this morning. He goes around there in a minute and does it very kindly.

"In the Derby, (with) 20 runners, I don't think they're going to all love the surface. We don't have to worry about that."

Quote:
Asmussen, who won the April 16 Arkansas Derby (gr. I) with WinStar Farm's Creator, is on the ballot for election to the National Museum of Racing's Hall of Fame. Asked if he thought about it much, the trainer said: "I'd rather win the Derby. It's a wonderful honor, but right now our focus is definitely the Derby and the Oaks. I've been dreaming about (winning the Derby) for a long time, before I ever won a race. I feel extremely fortunate to have two excellent chances at it this year."
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Old 04-19-2016, 12:31 PM   #30
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Parson
I just missed being there, but he went 5f 1:00 flat and Steve generally does not work his horses that fast. Do we break the LA Derby jinx this year?



Yes sir!
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