Is it possible that there are no real speed figs? - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

Capper Al · 03-20-2016, 07:52 PM

Everyone knows the formulas being used:

Parallel Speed Chart adjustment
Track variant
Daily variant

But consider how the speed figures are adjusted when it comes to the daily variant. If speed makers are trying to peg a daily variant the first thing they say is something like this: These $20,000 Claimers should be running this distance at 1:05(example). They ran a 1:10 so they are 5 over. Then they subtract 5 for the daily variant. (It's not exactly this simple, but overall this is what they do.) So the daily variant would be adjusted with a minus 5 to equalize. Here's the catch, with all this equalizing they are negating the actual speed and going by what the class of horses should of ran. So is it speed or is it class? The speed has been factored out of it.

cj · 03-20-2016, 08:00 PM

Maybe that is how speed figures were made in 1950. I doubt many do it that way now. I know I don't.

Flysofree · 03-20-2016, 08:02 PM

Everybody and their brother has a speed figure.What I can't figure out is why or how the "run up distances" are valuable and or needed.

cj · 03-20-2016, 08:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Flysofree

Everybody and their brother has a speed figure.What I can't figure out is why or how the "run up distances" are valuable and or needed.

Sometimes they are, sometimes they aren't. Maybe this will help:

http://timeformusblog.com/2013/12/17...on-final-time/

Capper Al · 03-21-2016, 06:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cj

Maybe that is how speed figures were made in 1950. I doubt many do it that way now. I know I don't.

Beyer's book was in the seventies. Many publications today say they do it this was.

If not, and you can say without giving away trade secrets, what are the basics of today's speed formulas?

Capper Al · 03-21-2016, 06:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cj

Sometimes they are, sometimes they aren't. Maybe this will help:

http://timeformusblog.com/2013/12/17...on-final-time/

Thanks for the link.

Run-up times can be double or more for Euro races.

cj · 03-21-2016, 09:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Capper Al

Beyer's book was in the seventies. Many publications today say they do it this was.

If not, and you can say without giving away trade secrets, what are the basics of today's speed formulas?

I was exaggerating with the 1950s comment of course. I'm not going to give away much, but I don't use pars at all. It is basically impossible at most places any longer. There are so many different conditions you would never have a big enough sample size to have anything remotely reliable.

How would you get a par, for example, for a NW3X allowance race? Are you going to go back a decade to get 15 of them? Are you going to lump circuits together? Regions?

You will also see things like this at one track for 5k claimers:

Open
NW2L
NW3L
NW4L
NW16m
NW1y

What do you do for a par for 2yo MSW? Does it matter if it is June or September? 6f or 8.5f? I could go on and on.

I think by far the best way to make variants is with projections. You look at each and every horse that ran on a card. Instead of having between 1 and 12 data points (based on surface, inner/outer, etc.), you have anywhere from 10 to 100 or more. You'll have to ignore some of them based on distance, surface, trainer changes, etc. But it is still way better than just using a class par for each race.

Elliott Sidewater · 03-21-2016, 10:36 AM

To answer the OP's original question, no it's not possible that there are no real speed figs. Some are a lot better than others, and figure makers like CJ have to work very hard at maintaining a level of consistency that is a first line priority in this craft. I made my own speed figures for 14 years, and had to give it up in the mid 90's because it was simply too much work for a recreational player. Maybe CJ will chime in on this, but back then I made some of my best and most confident bets when my figures disagreed with the Beyer Speed Figures. How often did this happen? Often enough to matter.

illinoisbred · 03-21-2016, 11:31 AM

When I 1st began making figures in 1982, I went by the book...par times,time chart. It wasn't too long,perhaps a year,before it started to sink in that my figures were too compressed. There just wasn't that great a difference between say a 5,000 claimer and a 15,000.Also, by the book,young horses presented a huge problem. I was too willing to downgrade what were truly big performances to fit a parameter. Anyways, soon I began projecting figures and it freed my figures from the chains that bound them. Projection is by far and wide the very best method to employ. I only "do" 1 circuit,and for 33 years it was Illinois..now for the past year SoCal.

CincyHorseplayer · 03-21-2016, 11:50 AM

Reads more like an editorial on disenchantment with numbers Al? There are plenty of people who use no speed/pace figures. I know many who use trainer/pedigree information and that's it. Whatever works.

Capper Al · 03-21-2016, 01:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cj

I was exaggerating with the 1950s comment of course. I'm not going to give away much, but I don't use pars at all. It is basically impossible at most places any longer. There are so many different conditions you would never have a big enough sample size to have anything remotely reliable.

How would you get a par, for example, for a NW3X allowance race? Are you going to go back a decade to get 15 of them? Are you going to lump circuits together? Regions?

You will also see things like this at one track for 5k claimers:

Open
NW2L
NW3L
NW4L
NW16m
NW1y

What do you do for a par for 2yo MSW? Does it matter if it is June or September? 6f or 8.5f? I could go on and on.

I think by far the best way to make variants is with projections. You look at each and every horse that ran on a card. Instead of having between 1 and 12 data points (based on surface, inner/outer, etc.), you have anywhere from 10 to 100 or more. You'll have to ignore some of them based on distance, surface, trainer changes, etc. But it is still way better than just using a class par for each race.

Are you saying it is more a horse to horse comparison than a horse to race rating (Class) comparison? How would one escape race rating even in a horse to horse comparison since the race rating is a composite of the horses? Not following.

cj · 03-21-2016, 01:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Capper Al

Are you saying it is more a horse to horse comparison than a horse to race rating (Class) comparison? How would one escape race rating even in a horse to horse comparison since the race rating is a composite of the horses? Not following.

You are comparing the times the horse runs to what the horse has run in the past. I look at each horse's last four races compared to what it ran today. So for each race card I can have hundreds of data points. I'm not comparing horse to horse, I'm comparing each horse to itself.

Capper Al · 03-21-2016, 01:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Elliott Sidewater

To answer the OP's original question, no it's not possible that there are no real speed figs. Some are a lot better than others, and figure makers like CJ have to work very hard at maintaining a level of consistency that is a first line priority in this craft. I made my own speed figures for 14 years, and had to give it up in the mid 90's because it was simply too much work for a recreational player. Maybe CJ will chime in on this, but back then I made some of my best and most confident bets when my figures disagreed with the Beyer Speed Figures. How often did this happen? Often enough to matter.

The discussion really is about the daily variant actually nullify the speed by adjusting to the class of the field? In the OP, there was an example of adjusting the daily variant to what a field of $20,000 claimers at a certain track are expected to run. By making this adjustment, aren't they nullifying speed?

I know it's a lot of work making your own Beyer style figures with parallel charts, track variants, and daily variants.

Capper Al · 03-21-2016, 01:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cj

You are comparing the times the horse runs to what the horse has run in the past. I look at each horse's last four races compared to what it ran today. So for each race card I can have hundreds of data points. I'm not comparing horse to horse, I'm comparing each horse to itself.

That is a very interesting alternative approach. Thanks for sharing.

Capper Al · 03-21-2016, 01:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by illinoisbred

When I 1st began making figures in 1982, I went by the book...par times,time chart. It wasn't too long,perhaps a year,before it started to sink in that my figures were too compressed. There just wasn't that great a difference between say a 5,000 claimer and a 15,000.Also, by the book,young horses presented a huge problem. I was too willing to downgrade what were truly big performances to fit a parameter. Anyways, soon I began projecting figures and it freed my figures from the chains that bound them. Projection is by far and wide the very best method to employ. I only "do" 1 circuit,and for 33 years it was Illinois..now for the past year SoCal.

Without giving away any secrets if you can, what do you project on, horse to field?