+++2016 Kentucky Derby Possible Winners+++

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by SecretAgentMan

I would bet those odds all day on that horse. He's gotta perform good in his next race tho to point him towards the derby.

Outwork has a dosage index of 11.00. Would be the highest DI winner in history of Derby (Strike The Gold was 9.00). You also have to go back to 1988 to find a Nasrullah sire line winner. Perhaps this horse will be better suited for long sprints and miles. This causes me to at least question Destin's performance in the Tampa Derby despite the triple digit BSF and record time. I think both are solid plays against at 9F and certainly 10F. Nyquist pedigree similar to Outwork. DI of 7.00 (only 4 points... no Derby winner since 1943 w/4 or less) and Nasrullah line. Both have Buckpasser-x which is possibly why these horses are looking good to 8.5F. I'm skeptical they can carry that speed much longer than this.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

Outwork has a dosage index of 11.00. Would be the highest DI winner in history of Derby (Strike The Gold was 9.00). You also have to go back to 1988 to find a Nasrullah sire line winner. Perhaps this horse will be better suited for long sprints and miles. This causes me to at least question Destin's performance in the Tampa Derby despite the triple digit BSF and record time. I think both are solid plays against at 9F and certainly 10F. Nyquist pedigree similar to Outwork. DI of 7.00 (only 4 points... no Derby winner since 1943 w/4 or less) and Nasrullah line. Both have Buckpasser-x which is possibly why these horses are looking good to 8.5F. I'm skeptical they can carry that speed much longer than this.

Orb and California Chrome go back to the Nasrullah line.

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

Outwork has a dosage index of 11.00. Would be the highest DI winner in history of Derby (Strike The Gold was 9.00). You also have to go back to 1988 to find a Nasrullah sire line winner. Perhaps this horse will be better suited for long sprints and miles. This causes me to at least question Destin's performance in the Tampa Derby despite the triple digit BSF and record time. I think both are solid plays against at 9F and certainly 10F. Nyquist pedigree similar to Outwork. DI of 7.00 (only 4 points... no Derby winner since 1943 w/4 or less) and Nasrullah line. Both have Buckpasser-x which is possibly why these horses are looking good to 8.5F. I'm skeptical they can carry that speed much longer than this.

F2T, go back to post #4 and click post link. Notate the date I first mentioned this horse, Outwork. I saw something special in this horse, along with Finnegan, who's still laid up....I rarely make these kind of comments.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by CincyHorseplayer

Orb and California Chrome go back to the Nasrullah line.

Yes, but both via Bold Ruler. It seems as if Nasrullah not via Bold Ruler is not a strong Derby sire line.

[no breathalyzer]

i bet $20 on Forevamo at 70-1

[sbcaris]

Huddygoodjob: Adventist, Suddenbreakingnews, frank conversation, and exaggerator do NOT carry Buckpasser in the X passing position.

[SecretAgentMan]

Originally Posted by sbcaris

Secret Agent Man: Here is a list of some of the horses that have raced well and actually may be on the Derby trail if they run a good race next month:

Zulu
Luna De Loco
Discreetness
Outwork
Nyquist
Mor Spirit
annual report
collected
swipe

If you are interested in any others just list them here and I will tell you whether or not they have Buckpasser in the X passing position

Of the list you typed above, Zulu is the only one that makes sense to me.

For instance, I like Mor Spirit, but don't see Baffert winning following the year he eon the triple crown. But Mor Spirit is definitely one of the most consistent horses in the derby, & if Baffert wins again, well, he's gonna go down as the best trainer ever! He's on the list already after AP's triple crown.

Nyquist is a solid horse but his dosage reeks. Real Quiet had a high dosage, & I was all over him because of Baffert was the hot trainer & Real Quiet was bout to peak. So don't know if Nyquist can get the distance, but think he already peaked, but will be watching the Florida derby in anticipation.

From your list, Zulu is the one I hope races well in his final race with nice fractions to give him the go. Nothing would be better for Pletcher than to get his 2nd KD win after seeing Baffert get his 4th & a triple crown.

[SecretAgentMan]

Only 2 horses in the past 98 years have won the KD with 4 career starts or less. Big Brown in 2008 with 3 starts & Animal Kingdom in 2011 with 4 starts, & neither ran a sprint race like Zulu or Outwork.

Lots of more angles coming!

[Huddy Goodjob]

I can see Baffert winning again, and right after looking over his shoulder to say-"It's just too easy".

He knows this race...and knows how to get a horse ready.

They have been teaching that horse in each of his races to have him ready to handle the race of his life in May.

[Huddy Goodjob]

I saw an angle about the Northern Dancer sire line...no derby winner carrying the ND sire line has won in...(long time)...amount of years or something. I can't remember where I saw it.

Anyone heard this one?

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by Huddy Goodjob

I saw an angle about the Northern Dancer sire line...no derby winner carrying the ND sire line has won in...(long time)...amount of years or something. I can't remember where I saw it.

Anyone heard this one?

The last one was Big Brown (2008) then Charismatic (1999), Sea Hero (1993), Ferdinand (1986). Raise A Native by far the best sire line the past few decades. Bold Ruler was hot in the 70's then was relatively quiet until past few years with Orb and Chrome.

[PowerUpPaynter]

if Nyquist cant beat Mohaymen in the Florida Derby he wont in the Kentucky Derby... However I can say that if he beats Mohaymen i can see Mohaymen beating him in Kentucky...

this obviously because of the Nyquist distance concerns Mohaymen looks like he can run all day, question is if he is fast enough which we have no idea truly how fast he can run because he hasnt really been pushed yet and usually being slowed toward the finish of his races

[sbcaris]

F2Tornado: Animal Kingdom, the 2011 Ky Derby winner carried the Nasrullah sire line (not going thru Bold Ruler). I still agree with your assessment in general. The Nasrullah sire line not going thru Bold Ruler has not been very good in generating Ky Derby winners.

A very interesting side note: Horses that have a dosage index of 4.00 to 5.65 that have run a fast final 3/8 of a 9 furlong prep race (37 4/5 or less) have won way more than their expected share of Derbies. I think the impact value for such a horse is around 2.00. American Pharaoh fit this above rule and won the Triple Crown. A high DI (4.00 to 5.65) does not deter a horse from winning the roses if it runs a fast final 3/8 of a 9 furlong major prep race.

[PowerUpPaynter]

Originally Posted by sbcaris

F2Tornado: Animal Kingdom, the 2011 Ky Derby winner carried the Nasrullah sire line (not going thru Bold Ruler). I still agree with your assessment in general. The Nasrullah sire line not going thru Bold Ruler has not been very good in generating Ky Derby winners.

A very interesting side note: Horses that have a dosage index of 4.00 to 5.65 that have run a fast final 3/8 of a 9 furlong prep race (37 4/5 or less) have won way more than their expected share of Derbies. I think the impact value for such a horse is around 2.00. American Pharaoh fit this above rule and won the Triple Crown. A high DI (4.00 to 5.65) does not deter a horse from winning the roses if it runs a fast final 3/8 of a 9 furlong major prep race.

what does the dosage suggest about Mohaymen?

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter

what does the dosage suggest about Mohaymen?

Mohaymen has this dosage line:
DP = 5-9-11-1-0 (26) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.69

I won't get into the gory details of the above but Mohaymen has 11 "Classic" points which is good and one "Solid" point which is extra good. His 26 total points is on par with the historical average of 31.

The long term trend line suggests the average Derby winner this decade will have a DI around 3.50. Mohaymen is right there at 3.00. CD stands for center of distribution where lower numbers suggest classic distance while higher numbers suggest a sprinter. Mohaymen at 0.69 is close to the long term trend line suggesting an average Derby winner this decade around 0.75.

Nutshell: Mohaymen satisfies the dosage angle. This has somewhat fallen out of favor but still relevant in my opinion. Roman came up with the "dual qualifier" concept to strengthen the dosage argument and Mohaymen satisfies that angle as well. This angle also falling out of favor but I believe it still has some use.

"Between 1973 and 2006 there have been 93 American classic races in which at least one DQ started. Of these, 53 (57.6%) were won by a DQ despite only 19.4% of the fields being comprised of DQs. The result is an Impact Value (IV) of 2.97" - Steven Roman

Thanks, Stanley, for the note on Animal Kingdom. Forgot about that one. Also another example of a Family 1 winner.