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Old 03-04-2016, 01:33 PM   #1
Capper Al
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Is Class Stamina?

If class is stamina then the first thing that pops into my mind is the stretch. How much juice does the horse have at the end of the race. But is this fair to a front runner that just hangs on by a nose to win at the end? Pace theory goes in depth discussing this. Early energy used is twice as asaperating as late energy. Yet doesn't common sense tell us that a horse gaining in a finish while winning at the same rate as a horse losing ground has more class then the early speed horse? How else might we look at this?
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Old 03-04-2016, 01:46 PM   #2
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Whether a horse it tiring, or flying late, depends on what the horse was asked to do during the earlier parts of the race. It isn't a function of "class". If a horse contested the early pace...then it will tire late. And if another horse was reserved well off the early lead...then this horse will appear to be charging at the end. The vast majority of the closers are tiring too...albeit at a slower rate than the front runners around them.

To me..."class" is a fine balance between a horse's brilliance, and its consistency. IMO...the "classiest" horses are the ones who run big races consistently. It doesn't matter whether they fly early or late.
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Old 03-04-2016, 01:57 PM   #3
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I do check consistency at what level a horse is doing well at. This too is a predictor of class. Stamina is the ability to hang in for what is asked.
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Old 03-04-2016, 04:31 PM   #4
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If you believe there is an innate hierarchy in horses or other animals (that "look you in the eyes" superiority--so ease off, pal), how do you factor that into stamina or similar concepts?

Also, if a horse is capable of repelling multiple challenges for the lead or slightly lesser placements (position, lengths behind), is that not a measure of relative "stamina" or "class" or "gameness?".

I don't know...there is always that intangible element to these concepts and some pretty tangible ones ,too
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Old 03-04-2016, 04:43 PM   #5
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Also, there is that idea of "seconditis", that some horses act in of races like they are fooling around and will let another consistently pass them.

Maybe that's an old-fashioned concept that says the horse has cognitive and behavioral abilities that manifest themselves regularly- regardless of their condition, inherent ability, racetrack, running surface quality, qualifying conditions for their.

Again, I just don't know if this make the existence of stamina a moot point.
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Old 03-04-2016, 05:28 PM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Capper Al
If class is stamina then the first thing that pops into my mind is the stretch. How much juice does the horse have at the end of the race. But is this fair to a front runner that just hangs on by a nose to win at the end? Pace theory goes in depth discussing this. Early energy used is twice as asaperating as late energy. Yet doesn't common sense tell us that a horse gaining in a finish while winning at the same rate as a horse losing ground has more class then the early speed horse? How else might we look at this?

Basically, yes. Regardless of the fractions, the classier horses finish better against the pace of the race than their less classier rivals, and that's why they win the photos. But, you can't just look at late-pace ratings or fast final quarters and declare all fast finishers as "classy" horses. Obviously, a lot of horses can finish well when they go slow early. But the classy horses finish well even when they're used prior to the quarter pole.

One of the best explanations of this was found in harness handicapping books written by the late Steve Chaplin. These books, Bettor's Guide To Harness Racing and Advanced Harness Handicapping, were published in the 1970's. Chaplin wrote about comparing "stretch speed" to the energy used prior to the stretch.

My new thoroughbred book will delve into this in great detail, although there's more to it, as well.
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Old 03-04-2016, 05:32 PM   #7
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I would also throw in that class includes a horse's ability to run on a variety of surfaces. We all know a horse could be classified as a dirt horse/turf horse/mudder/etc but I hold that cheaper horses actually have subsets...besides just being a dirt horse, some horses will actually only perform on harder dirt or softer sandier dirt. A classier dirt horse may hold his speed or stamina on dirt for example whether it's soft fast or hard fast.
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Old 03-04-2016, 05:34 PM   #8
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Originally Posted by deelo
I would also throw in that class includes a horse's ability to run on a variety of surfaces. We all know a horse could be classified as a dirt horse/turf horse/mudder/etc but I hold that cheaper horses actually have subsets...besides just being a dirt horse, some horses will actually only perform on harder dirt or softer sandier dirt. A classier dirt horse may hold his speed or stamina on dirt for example whether it's soft fast or hard fast.

I agree with that, and I also agree with Thaskakos assertion that classy horses are more consistent. That's why when evaluating horses, it's more reliable to use several pacelines rather than just one.
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Old 03-04-2016, 05:40 PM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pandy
Basically, yes. Regardless of the fractions, the classier horses finish better against the pace of the race than their less classier rivals, and that's why they win the photos. But, you can't just look at late-pace ratings or fast final quarters and declare all fast finishers as "classy" horses. Obviously, a lot of horses can finish well when they go slow early. But the classy horses finish well even when they're used prior to the quarter pole.

One of the best explanations of this was found in harness handicapping books written by the late Steve Chaplin. These books, Bettor's Guide To Harness Racing and Advanced Harness Handicapping, were published in the 1970's. Chaplin wrote about comparing "stretch speed" to the energy used prior to the stretch.

My new thoroughbred book will delve into this in great detail, although there's more to it, as well.
What is the new book?
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Old 03-04-2016, 05:45 PM   #10
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I think I'm going to call it, Power Pace, or something like that. I ran tests on my website, amazing results. I started writing it. With this method, you only bet on horses that are likely to have something left for the stretch run in this particular race, and, most of the time they'll be in good striking position, which is important. It will be the best book on Spot Play handicapping ever published.
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Old 03-04-2016, 09:09 PM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pandy
I think I'm going to call it, Power Pace, or something like that. I ran tests on my website, amazing results. I started writing it. With this method, you only bet on horses that are likely to have something left for the stretch run in this particular race, and, most of the time they'll be in good striking position, which is important. It will be the best book on Spot Play handicapping ever published.
Be careful. I think Barry Burkin sold something with that name back in the 90s...and he might still hold the copyright to the title.
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Old 03-04-2016, 09:21 PM   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pandy
I think I'm going to call it, Power Pace, or something like that. I ran tests on my website, amazing results. I started writing it. With this method, you only bet on horses that are likely to have something left for the stretch run in this particular race, and, most of the time they'll be in good striking position, which is important. It will be the best book on Spot Play handicapping ever published.
^ I think you just found your title ^
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Old 03-04-2016, 09:28 PM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Capper Al
If class is stamina then the first thing that pops into my mind is the stretch. How much juice does the horse have at the end of the race. But is this fair to a front runner that just hangs on by a nose to win at the end? Pace theory goes in depth discussing this. Early energy used is twice as asaperating as late energy. Yet doesn't common sense tell us that a horse gaining in a finish while winning at the same rate as a horse losing ground has more class then the early speed horse? How else might we look at this?
No, class is not stamina because class is nonparametric whereas stamina is parametric.

However stamina is a function of class, but class is not a function of stamina because there are horses that have the stamina to get the race distance, but they don't have the class to win the race.
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Last edited by Cratos; 03-04-2016 at 09:42 PM.
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Old 03-04-2016, 09:53 PM   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pandy
I think I'm going to call it, Power Pace, or something like that. I ran tests on my website, amazing results. I started writing it. With this method, you only bet on horses that are likely to have something left for the stretch run in this particular race, and, most of the time they'll be in good striking position, which is important. It will be the best book on Spot Play handicapping ever published.
I've been seeking this method for years. Please let us know when available.
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Old 03-04-2016, 11:13 PM   #15
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Quote:
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IMO...the "classiest" horses are the ones who run big races consistently. It doesn't matter whether they fly early or late.
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