Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > General Handicapping Discussion
User Name
Password



Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Rating: Thread Rating: 6 votes, 5.00 average.
Old 03-03-2016, 08:28 PM   #61
NorCalGreg
 
NorCalGreg's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 4,397
vCash: 400
Quote:
Originally Posted by green80
Those are sharp players at Delta, any horse that figures and wins is a heavy chalk favorite.


So when do we get to see you capping skills in action--so far, you talk a good game....and how extremely difficult it is to pull off a betting coup---while I contend it happens everyday, with the same trainers....at the same tracks.
They don't make enough to pay the bills, and have anything left for themselves.

The connections that CANT "win on demand"....two or 3 times a year, end up having to get "day jobs" So while you're explaining all that to this simpleton....give me an example of YOUR skill and knowledge in action....mmmmkay?

It's easy to stand on the sidelines and talk---get in the game. son.
NorCalGreg is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-03-2016, 10:36 PM   #62
green80
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Benton, La.
Posts: 1,025
vCash: 400
Quote:
Originally Posted by NorCalGreg
So when do we get to see you capping skills in action--so far, you talk a good game....and how extremely difficult it is to pull off a betting coup---while I contend it happens everyday, with the same trainers....at the same tracks.
They don't make enough to pay the bills, and have anything left for themselves.

The connections that CANT "win on demand"....two or 3 times a year, end up having to get "day jobs" So while you're explaining all that to this simpleton....give me an example of YOUR skill and knowledge in action....mmmmkay?

It's easy to stand on the sidelines and talk---get in the game. son.


ok, here is what I am playing tomorrow

Oaklawn Park



1) OUR DOC TANNER

2) AUNT MARYANN

3) HOLLYWOOD ICE

4) ICE BLUE VISION

5) DOC GALORE

6) DOUBLE DARE

7) ZONED IN

8) PLEASANT TALES

9) WOLF MAN ROCKET

I set my odds for the bet to go in at 4/1 or better at 0 min to post.
green80 is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-04-2016, 12:15 AM   #63
Winger
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 786
vCash: 400
Quote:
Originally Posted by Winger
Current Bankroll: $327.20 (+$127.20 - 8 Races)
Wager = $9 Win (2.5% of day's starting bankroll, rounded up, $2 min)
Condition: 2/1 minimum odds at 0 MTP

Today's Selections:
CTX-2 Im A Littl Shy (3/1)
CTX-6 Divine Way (15/1)
DED-8 Smoking Donna (4/1) & I Hope (8/1) - Dutch & ExBox
FGX-4 Good Enough Said (6/1)
FGX-9 La Majestique (6/1)
GGX-1 Adriatic Skye (8/5)
GPX-1 Good Genes (7/2)
OPX-1 Misty Journey (2/1)
OPX-6 Silken Wildcat (20/1)
PEN-1 One Hot Cat (6/1)
PEN-2 El Viejo Verde (5/2)
PEN-3 Charleston Pier (2/1)
PEN-7 Don Tito (2/1)



CTX-2 Im A Little Shy (3/1) 1st... 6.40 (28.80)
FGX-4 Good Enough Said (6/1) Didn't meet odds requirement
FGX-9 La Majestique (6/1) 1st... 24.00 (108.00)... But, this one didn't actually meet the method requirements, so I'm not counting it.
GPX-1 Good Genes (7/2) 1st... 6.20 (27.90)
OPX-1 Misty Journey (2/1) Didn't meet odds requirement
PEN-1 One Hot Cat (6/1) Scratched
PEN-3 Charleston Pier (2/1) Didn't meet odds requirement
PEN-7 Don Tito (2/1) Didn't meet odds requirement
Winger is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-04-2016, 01:15 AM   #64
Winger
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 786
vCash: 400
Current Bankroll: $311.90 (+$111.90 - 16 Races)
Wager = $8 Win (2.5% of day's starting bankroll, rounded up, $2 min)
Condition: 2/1 minimum odds at 0 MTP

Today's Selections:
CTX-3 Dipped In Pearls (9/5)
CTX-7 BlisteredAndBroke (10/1)
DED-6 Hook (9/2)
DED-10 Delta Code (15/1)
FON-4 Conbradulations (3/1)
FON-8 Minimal Risk (5/1)
GGX-1 Heliacal (7/2)
HOU-1 Wildcat Shoals (4/1)
HOU-6 PromiseAPhoneCall (9/2)
HOU-8 Swift Raven (15/1)
LAX-2 Flew Flicker (8/1)
OPX-3 E M Maximus (6/1)
OPX-7 Georgie My Boy (12/1)
SAX-6 One More Rll (6/1)
TAM-1 Let It Be Famous (20/1)
TAM-4 BootsOnTheGround (5/2)
TAM-9 Chi Town Rose (8/1)
TUP-2 Uncle Tickles (7/2)
TUP-4 Red Hot Plot (9/2)
TUP-9 Fujita Five (4/1)
Winger is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-04-2016, 01:26 AM   #65
NorCalGreg
 
NorCalGreg's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 4,397
vCash: 400
Quote:
Originally Posted by NorCalGreg
Lassie Lynn----XX-OUT-XX ----no need to keep watching~this one's done
Notes scratched 1/27 good pace #s RTW $$ b1X
Activity type 8-1 ML
Activity date 03-03-2016
Track Fair Grounds
Surface Dirt
Distance 6 Furlongs
Race number 6
Post position 3
Jockey Torres F C


*NOTE --The next two are running in the same (6th) race @ Penn--I usually take the highest odds to win--and reverse them in exacta


Secret Score>>>3RD❇

Notes --1/13 Penn claimed 14-1 ran 3rd -stayed away from rail@turn
Activity type 8-1 ML
Activity date 03-03-2016
Track Penn National
Surface Dirt
Distance 5 1/2 Furlongs
Race number 6
Post position 10
Jockey Sanchez M J


Erase the Deficit-- ----OUT--->>>keep watching

Notes Penn *CFN* @ 8-1 for 8K 1/29-CLAIMED FOR NOTHING ANGLE
Activity type 12-1 ML
Activity date 03-03-2016
Track Penn National
Surface Dirt
Distance 5 1/2 Furlongs
Race number 6
Post position 11
Jockey Felix J M Jr


Hidden Pearl-- -->>> $9.80 $5.40 $4.00


Notes scratched out of race vs monster--looking for easier spot RTW-
-then scratched again--will give one chance only
Activity type 9/2 ML
Activity date 03-03-2016
Track Penn National
Surface Dirt
Distance 5 1/2 Furlongs
Race number 8
Post position 9
Jockey Guzman P



Lightnin Fast Girl----OUT-->>>keep watching

Notes Laurel CFN 9-1 no effort b-2x-CLAIMED FOR NOTHING ANGLE
Activity type 4-1 ML
Activity date 03-03-2016
Track Charles Town
Surface Dirt
Distance 6 1/2 Furlongs
Race number 6
Post position 5
Jockey Toledo J


🎲NCG
NorCalGreg is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-04-2016, 06:03 AM   #66
NorCalGreg
 
NorCalGreg's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 4,397
vCash: 400
*HTW 03/03

-Son of Sang

Notes M horse prepping for win--RTW B-2X
Activity date 03-04-2016

Track ---**Golden Gate Fields**7/2 ML
Distance 6 Furlongs
Race number 7
Post position 1
Jockey Martinez C



--Wraith

Notes--2/11 englehart 12-1 *CLAIMED FOR NOTHING ANGLE*
Activity date 03-04-2016

Track **Aqueduct**5-1 ML
Race number 5
Post position 3
Jockey Ortiz J



--Jeremy's Song

Notes ---Exploded final sub .24 1/4th--scratched for this spot?
Activity date 03-04-2016

Track **Aqueduct **5-1ML
Race number 9
Race type Maiden Claiming
Post position 3
Jockey Franco M



--Meet in Khartoum

Notes --1/28 AQ had pace figs--should have won--bet 1X only @ 4-1+
Activity date 03-04-2016

Track **Aqueduct**20-1 ML
Race number 8
Post position 4
Jockey Alvarado J



--Cruise Director

Notes --2/4 claimed @ 6-1 *CLAIMED FOR NOTHING ANGLE*

Activity date 03-04-2016

Track**Penn National**10-1 ML
Race number 1
Post position 4
Jockey Flores E



--It's My Perogative

Notes-- claimed@12-1 Laurel -closed into hot 1/16th *CLAIMED FOR NOTHING ANGLE*
Activity date 03-04-2016

Track **Charles Town **2-1 ML
Race number 2
Race type Claiming
Post position 8
Jockey Toledo J



🎲NCG
NorCalGreg is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-04-2016, 06:20 AM   #67
NorCalGreg
 
NorCalGreg's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 4,397
vCash: 400
Quote:
Originally Posted by NorCalGreg
So when do we get to see you capping skills in action--so far, you talk a good game....and how extremely difficult it is to pull off a betting coup---while I contend it happens everyday, with the same trainers....at the same tracks.
They don't make enough to pay the bills, and have anything left for themselves.

The connections that CANT "win on demand"....two or 3 times a year, end up having to get "day jobs" So while you're explaining all that to this simpleton....give me an example of YOUR skill and knowledge in action

It's easy to stand on the sidelines and talk---get in the game son.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


green80
ok, here is what I am playing tomorrow

Oaklawn Park



1) OUR DOC TANNER

2) AUNT MARYANN

3) HOLLYWOOD ICE

4) ICE BLUE VISION

5) DOC GALORE

6) DOUBLE DARE

7) ZONED IN

8) PLEASANT TALES

9) WOLF MAN ROCKET

I set my odds for the bet to go in at 4/1 or better at 0 min to post.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


*To show an example of your handicapping skills---you post software picks?

If I was asked for my best handicapping--I would refer them to the HTW
post above....this reflects my handicapping, not my computer's.


To quote the perpetually-befuddled SRU..."you're better than that" greenie

Anyway---hope there's no hard feelings

🎭 NCG
NorCalGreg is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-04-2016, 10:01 AM   #68
NorCalGreg
 
NorCalGreg's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 4,397
vCash: 400
Pace/Spot plays--03/04

These should be pretty solid--they've all been screened for
basic handicapping rules--in addition to Pace.

Whose basic handicapping rules? Mine


GGF

6th 3 GOLDEN DYNAMO 5-1

TPX

6TH 4 HOT FRENCH FRIES 5/2
8TH 5 IN MY BOOK 10-1

AQ

2ND 2 SWEET PURSUIT 10-1

HOU

8TH 10 RUBY CASCADE 6-1

PENN

6TH 8 PREORDAINED 5/2

TAMP

10 3 EDDIE G 3-1


-NCG☮
NorCalGreg is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-04-2016, 10:16 AM   #69
NorCalGreg
 
NorCalGreg's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 4,397
vCash: 400
PRIME PLAY

Quote:
Originally Posted by NorCalGreg
Here we go...Bankroll is $500--base wager is $50.00 + square root of profits. These are the wagers I personally play--when they present themselves, usually 3 or 4 a week.


--TURF PARADISE

7TH RACE LUCKY TO STAY HOME 8-1 ML


*LUCKY TO STAY HOME did not win


Bankroll currently $450...$50 Win-todays Prime Play:


--GULFSTREAM

11TH RACE TWIST 'N BAKE 15-1 ML


🎲NCG
NorCalGreg is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-04-2016, 10:45 AM   #70
NorCalGreg
 
NorCalGreg's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 4,397
vCash: 400
EARLY-LATE SPOT PLAY

I spend a lot of time going over new methods and spot plays--if you like stats and horse racing--these are a lot of fun. Like Winger, I check them out first--if they show potential--I test them here.
I like to fully explain the method I'm testing, so the reader knows what the thought process is--to come up with the method.

RULES:

*4-1 + ODDS

*1 MILE, AND ALL SPRINTS 6F OR LESS


*TOP E-1 PACE FIG OF EACH RACE ON CARD-so every race--regardless of distance...has one horse that has the top early pace figure--this is our horse.

*OF THE HORSES--WE LOOK AT THEIR LATE PACE FIGURE.

*THE TOP LATE PACE FIGURE HORSE--IS OUR SELECTION--SO FAR

*IF THE HORSE ISN'T RUNNING IN A RACE @ OUR REQUIRED DISTANCE--WE PASS THE RACE.

*IF THE HORSE IS AT OUR REQUIRED DISTANCE--

*MUST BE BACK IN 30 DAYS

*TRAINER MUST WIN 5% MIN

The thinking behind this is, we want a fast horse, in an accepted sprint distance--or 1 mile...who shows what might be a powerful LATE runner, as well. The trainer 5% win--is just to keep out trainers that never win, basically. And of course, the recency of 30 days, and 4-1 odds to insure we don't (hopefully) get any 1-5 shots. Remember--the selection MUST HAVE the highest LATE PACE FIG--of ALL HORSES that are top E-1'S.


Sorry, I know this is confusing right now--any questions post them up right here.

Here they are:

AQ 5TH 6 WILLIAM'S LUCKY GREY 12-1

DD 9TH 7 GREEN JUICE 6-1

FG 2ND 6 CITY SAGE 9/2

GPX 1ST 1 DANGEROUS BREW 6-1

PENN 7TH 7 TAPESPRIT 9/2

SUN 7TH 2 LEE'S GOLD 5-1


have a good day

🎲NCG
NorCalGreg is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-04-2016, 02:01 PM   #71
green80
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Benton, La.
Posts: 1,025
vCash: 400
*To show an example of your handicapping skills---you post software picks?

If I was asked for my best handicapping--I would refer them to the HTW
post above....this reflects my handicapping, not my computer's.


To quote the perpetually-befuddled SRU..."you're better than that" greenie

Anyway---hope there's no hard feelings

🎭 NCG


Accused of using software picks in this thread?


I'll have a no way software horse for you next Thursday at Delta.
I'll bet EMD4ME can tell you what it is.


Last edited by green80 : 03-04-2016 at 02:08 PM.
green80 is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-04-2016, 03:17 PM   #72
NorCalGreg
 
NorCalGreg's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 4,397
vCash: 400
Quote:
Originally Posted by green80
*To show an example of your handicapping skills---you post software picks?

If I was asked for my best handicapping--I would refer them to the HTW
post above....this reflects my handicapping, not my computer's.


To quote the perpetually-befuddled SRU..."you're better than that" greenie

Anyway---hope there's no hard feelings

🎭 NCG


Accused of using software picks in this thread?


I'll have a no way software horse for you next Thursday at Delta.
I'll bet EMD4ME can tell you what it is.




Don't get all defensive, greenie. It's not that big a deal--relax, man.
Besides...waiting a week for a horse to run doesn't really show much in the way of handicapping skills. If you have a good thing going next Thurs, hell....let Me know about it. I like to make money, too.
NorCalGreg is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-04-2016, 03:36 PM   #73
green80
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Benton, La.
Posts: 1,025
vCash: 400
Quote:
Originally Posted by NorCalGreg
Don't get all defensive, greenie. It's not that big a deal--relax, man.
Besides...waiting a week for a horse to run doesn't really show much in the way of handicapping skills. If you have a good thing going next Thurs, hell....let Me know about it. I like to make money, too.


Hey, I never said I was a good handicapper, just know a little about the game. As a matter of fact, I am not a good handicapper because I haven't been able to quit my day job.

I'll post on the horse next week, after I see how she feels that day and how she makes the trip.

Had scratch R7 Op. Zoned in scratched, play is CHARISMATIC PULPIT
green80 is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-04-2016, 11:49 PM   #74
NorCalGreg
 
NorCalGreg's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 4,397
vCash: 400
This is from an article by Randy Giles, @ his PaceAppraiser site. I think this method was "State of the Art" --back in the 1930's. It's basically a 2-factor method. It's titled:

More Ways to Bring Home the Bacon



One of the biggest bookmakers in the country passed away in 1936. Horse and Jockey magazine wasted no time publishing his secret system. The March 1937 issue revealed for posterity the Bookmaker's Under-Cover System - "he would certainly get a big chuckle thinking about the consternation of the remaining bookmakers".

Here's the results of a week's play at Arlington (November 14-20, 1936): "On a ten dollar flat bet......$480.00 total bet. My comeback was $1,036.00, leaving a neat profit of $556.00".

Without further ado:

The Bookmaker's Under-Cover System

1. Eliminate all horses that won their last race. (Winners repeat, but try and show a profit by betting them to repeat).

2. Determine the horse that went to the post the shortest price his last race and failed to win. (You may have a few stiffs but it will be a very small percentage as horses bet down to a short price are usually ready to win with average racing luck).

3. If two or more went to the post at the same price, your play is the horse that takes off the most weight.

4. Should more than one still remain, your play is the horse that has been running with the highest class company in recent races.

5. An added rule is necessary in the following cases. If any of the horses in the race you are figuring ran in the field or as one of an entry their last start go back to the previous race or the last race the horse ran uncoupled. (The price quoted on a horse coupled in an entry is no true indication of the regard in which the horse in question is held by the moneyed bettor).

So there you have it again. Straight from the grave of a bookmaker. Now you have no excuse not to bring home the 1936 bacon. We all know that systems do not work. Each horse race is an independent event of a multitude of factors that no single formula can conquer consistently. But it doesn't keep us from trying...on and on. In a way, it's an admirable pursuit. After all, hope springs eternal.


---I suppose the difference between a METHOD-and a SYSTEM...a method has fewer "rules" than a system. They both have rules, though....with a method, they aren't as clearly defined, but they're there. Even Randy's PACE "situations".

Here's the link to his site--interesting stuff

http://www.paceappraiser.com

-NCG
NorCalGreg is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-05-2016, 02:09 AM   #75
Winger
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 786
vCash: 400
Quote:
Originally Posted by Winger
Current Bankroll: $311.90 (+$111.90 - 16 Races)
Wager = $8 Win (2.5% of day's starting bankroll, rounded up, $2 min)
Condition: 2/1 minimum odds at 0 MTP

Today's Selections:
CTX-3 Dipped In Pearls (9/5)
CTX-7 BlisteredAndBroke (10/1)
DED-6 Hook (9/2)
DED-10 Delta Code (15/1)
FON-4 Conbradulations (3/1)
FON-8 Minimal Risk (5/1)
GGX-1 Heliacal (7/2)
HOU-1 Wildcat Shoals (4/1)
HOU-6 PromiseAPhoneCall (9/2)
HOU-8 Swift Raven (15/1)
LAX-2 Flew Flicker (8/1)
OPX-3 E M Maximus (6/1)
OPX-7 Georgie My Boy (12/1)
SAX-6 One More Rll (6/1)
TAM-1 Let It Be Famous (20/1)
TAM-4 BootsOnTheGround (5/2)
TAM-9 Chi Town Rose (8/1)
TUP-2 Uncle Tickles (7/2)
TUP-4 Red Hot Plot (9/2)
TUP-9 Fujita Five (4/1)


CTX-3 Dipped In Pearls (9/5) Didn't meet odds requirement
DED-10 Delta Code (15/1) Scratched
FON-4 Conbradulations (3/1) Cancelled, can't bet at Twinspires
FON-8 Minimal Risk (5/1) Cancelled, can't bet at Twinspires
HOU-1 Wildcat Shoals (4/1) Didn't meet odds requirement
SAX-6 One More Rll (6/1) 1st... 9.40 (37.60)
TPX-2 Uncle Tickles (7/2) 1st... 11.60 (46.40)
Winger is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply

« Previous Thread | Next Thread »



Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump



All times are GMT -4. The time now is 05:35 PM.



Powered by: vBulletin Version 3.0.5
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright 1999 - 2016 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved -- Best Viewed @ 1024x768 Resolution Or Higher