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Old 02-27-2016, 11:57 AM   #16
johnhannibalsmith
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For the record I always check the HTW and will be stopping here now too if this is where the 'methodology' substance can be found. I like seeing people's picks, but really enjoy seeing the rationale or even trying to decipher the rationale based on the clues. Maybe it's a Sun Tzu sort of mentality, although he probably would have benefited from it. Anyway, keep it up, these sort of threads kind of kickstart my thinking (actually in general but specifically...) about the races in the morning.
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Old 02-27-2016, 12:32 PM   #17
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For proof, just look at their 1990's era website---old information, dead links, failure to upgrade even the simplest areas.


I thought you were talking about the DRF Simulcast Daily!
I have reported dead links and bad files for years and everyone of them is still the same. How can yo have any respect for a company that has none for their customers? they are a joke. Mike Warren had more integrity than DRF.
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Old 02-27-2016, 06:35 PM   #18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom
I thought you were talking about the DRF Simulcast Daily!
I have reported dead links and bad files for years and everyone of them is still the same. How can yo have any respect for a company that has none for their customers? they are a joke. Mike Warren had more integrity than DRF.


Bris is so complacent...they literally DON'T CARE. You really shouldn't insult Mike Warren like that, though


**NOTE to johnhannibal: thanks ---and please, post up your thoughts and plays, as well. I enjoy reaing your in-depth analysis--plus you're long-winded like me hahaha
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Old 02-28-2016, 09:07 AM   #19
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*HTW 2/28

Time to resume the HTW --on a new thread. You guys that were posting up your HORSES TO WATCH --please continue to do so right here in our new, state of the art location.

***Hidden Pearl

Notes scratched out of race vs monster--looking for easier spot --convinced this trainer is going for it today--RTW
Activity 8-1 ML
Activity date 02-28-2016
Track Parx Racing
Surface Dirt
Distance 5 Furlongs
Race number 2 Post position 6
Jockey Gonzalez S

***Aridus

Notes-Laurel *CFN* This horse qualifies for the profitable CLAIMED FOR NOTHING angle--the claimer= JAMIE NESS
Activity 10-1 ML
Activity date 02-28-2016
Track Parx Racing
Surface Dirt
Distance 1 Mile
Race number 8 Post position 2
Individual claim price $7,500
Race type Claiming
Jockey Gomez K

***Boston Charley

Notes --2/10 TUP had #s to wire--not much effort--should see improvement today
Activity 9/2 ML
Activity date 02-28-2016
Track Turf Paradise
Surface Dirt
Distance 4 1/2 Furlongs
Race number 6 Post position 6
Individual claim price $3,000
Race type Claiming
Jockey Beauregard S

***Life in Shambles

Notes--claimed for Ausmussen -could be $$$
Activity type 8-1 ML
Activity date 02-28-2016
Track Aqueduct
Surface Inner track
Distance 6 Furlongs
Race number 8 Post position 2
Individual claim price Not Entered for Tag
Race type Allowance Optional Claiming
Jockey Ortiz J L
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Old 02-28-2016, 10:34 AM   #20
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**AQUEDUCT CARD

***The lotto $1 straight superfecta:AQUEDUCT~Race-6 -->> 3-5-8-4


Lately been studying Pace--especially as it relates to Speed. I used to say I'm a speed handicapper--well pace is a function of speed. If you're a speed capper, such as myself...and pretty much ignore pace...as I did--you're only getting a piece of the puzzle, a narrow dimension.

Mainly I've started to become a disciple of Randy Giles--I'll post his link up later-- in case you want to find Randy. He has a little program called "Pace Lab"....that you can use to isolate some of his particular pace situations. One of his ideas is something he calls PACE PRESSURE GAUGE
That is a perfect name for it, too. Gauging the amount of pace pressure--it's just that.
Naturally, I figured a real quick "gauge"....it's absolutely fascinating, this subject. I mentioned I have a little software program I had a programmer make up for me...based on something I had noticed long ago---an amazing amount of winners showed early speed (within 2.5 lengths of the lead--1st call) within their last 2 races. So my little program ONLY shows-- position and lengths--of the e-1 calls of a horses last 2 races. Also, it shows the Bris pace figs--all 3 calls--of a horses very last race. That's all I want to see--THE LAST RACE.
Purists will say "Oh no, I've got to go back half a dozen races" --well that's all good and well, but I don't need more than the last race. Furthermore, I don't even had the final speed rating--don't need it. It shows Trainer-Jockey W% and days since last race.
What I've done on paper---and what I hope my programmer can do for me..out of just that limited info--I've devised a "speed gauge". Now, I added my own version of "Pace Pressure"--still on paper--need to get that added to my program, as well.

What this tells me is--whether this particular race is PACE-BIASED against EARLY or LATE. This is where my speed gauge shines--if the race is extremely biased against LATE...my speed gauge totals will tell me if there is a speed stand-out. Today's 5th race @ Delta...there was such a stand-out--#3 PRINCE ART. Yes, he scored at a huge price for me. I used this method and nothing else--and hit the pick-4 in the RDSS contest, also yesterday.

You really ought to check Giles out..in his video turorials--he has this Texas Twang, sorta like Raybo sounds in his videos--he's not flashy or flambouyant-I like that about him also.

Anyway if you don't know about pace pressure, bias, etc...you really need to.
It will bring your capping to another level, trust me.

http://www.paceappraiser.com


Here's what I have for Aqueduct today---I use Quirin to figure pace pressure--and my own software as I mentioned. When I've found what I think is an extreme bias--I'll note it.

***AQUEDUCT


--1ST MIDNITE TRACE 5-1 W HUNTER'S STRIKE

--3RD --EXTREME EARLY BIAS-- ESKENDULCE 6-1 W COLLINS SMILE & DAD'Z LAUGH


--4TH ALEANDAR 2-1 W GANADOR & REAL EASTATE RICH


--5TH LIANA STAR 4-1


--6TH EXTREME LATE BIAS CAPTAIN TOEWS 15-1 W
YAKOV & KOWBOY BOOTS


--7TH ENTRY 1-1A 4-1 ML ❇ best bet


--8TH EIGHTY THREE 5/2 W ANGRY MOON


--9TH EXTREME EARLY BIAS BONITA LUNA 5/2 W IS SHE HOT & AMULAY


We'll see how this goes today....I know I haven't perfected anything, or reinvented pace analysis. It's a lot of fun trying, though BTW....read the e-book "Extreme Pace" by Randy Giles--it's 10 bucks. Do not consider the Pace Lab--until you've read this.

have a good day

-NCG

Last edited by NorCalGreg : 02-28-2016 at 10:39 AM.
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Old 02-28-2016, 08:57 PM   #21
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NorCalGreg
Time to resume the HTW --on a new thread. You guys that were posting up your HORSES TO WATCH --please continue to do so right here in our new, state of the art location.

***Hidden Pearl-- SCRATCHED

Notes scratched out of race vs monster--looking for easier spot --convinced this trainer is going for it today--RTW
Activity 8-1 ML
Activity date 02-28-2016
Track Parx Racing


***Aridus --SCRATCHED


Notes-Laurel *CFN* This horse qualifies for the profitable CLAIMED FOR NOTHING angle--the claimer= JAMIE NESS
Activity 10-1 ML
Activity date 02-28-2016
Track Parx Racing


***Boston Charley 2ND

Notes --2/10 TUP had #s to wire--not much effort--should see improvement today
Activity 9/2 ML
Activity date 02-28-2016
Track Turf Paradise


***Life in Shambles-- XXXX

Notes--claimed for Ausmussen -could be $$$
Activity type 8-1 ML
Activity date 02-28-2016
Track Aqueduct


2 SCRATCHES, 1 2ND, 1 OUT
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Old 02-28-2016, 11:26 PM   #22
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Here's a new method that I'm testing. Back testing has been very positive, therefore it will fall on its face.

Current Bankroll: $200
Wager = $5 Win (2.5% of day's starting bankroll, rounded up, $2 min)
Condition: 2/1 minimum odds at 0 MTP
Today's Selections:
MVR-7 Cinder Tyme (5/1)
TUP-2 Photo Shopped (3/1)
TUP-4 Bounced (9/2)
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Old 02-28-2016, 11:55 PM   #23
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Winger
Here's a new method that I'm testing. Back testing has been very positive, therefore it will fall on its face.

Current Bankroll: $200
Wager = $5 Win (2.5% of day's starting bankroll, rounded up, $2 min)
Condition: 2/1 minimum odds at 0 MTP
Today's Selections:
MVR-7 Cinder Tyme (5/1)
TUP-2 Photo Shopped (3/1)
TUP-4 Bounced (9/2)



WINGER! Was wondering if you guys were mad at me, or something. Glad you finally made it. I've been fooling with some methods--same deal--work great on paper--goes down the tubes when I post.
That's a good reason to post it up---gives it a "live" feel, whether you bet it or not. I'm devoting my time to this pace thing, so we'll see how that goes.
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Old 02-29-2016, 12:04 AM   #24
johnhannibalsmith
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Winger
...
TUP-4 Bounced (9/2)


I have one in this race on my mental HTW list. I wish he had drawn outside and I have yet to really look the race over, but I think he might be able to get the lead here without getting cooked based on a cursory glance of the field on the overnight. Needed the first back for sure. Probably needed the most recent as well and once it was obvious he wasn't going anywhere, he wasn't used up to run second last instead of dead last. Morning line of 20-1 is, I think, a bit of a dream. Still going to be decent I think, but would be no surprise to see him open a lot lower and drift upwards.

Taylor Ridge
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Old 02-29-2016, 08:29 AM   #25
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HTW 2/29

The Grand Aqueduct Experiment went okay, I suppose. I didn't get the pick-4.....like probably a lot of forumites, I needed BONITA LUNA to win the finale. It wouldn't have paid much, but I was hoping to keep my win streak alive---unfortunately the streak ended at ONE. I'm not the type of player that can do well in multi-race "horizontals"...my forte is waiting for a spot--when an opportunity presents itself, for my kind of handicapping. It's hard enough to win one race LOL.

Horses to Watch for today: I could write a book on how good these PARX horses look today...The first one shows very subtle trainer manuevering, but the trainer can't hide those +15'S pace figs--this one has been setting or pressing those up. 'SpeedLimit is dropping down, trainer is switching to a jock whose basically just a warm body. When this horse wins today--I want jockey-worshipping SRU to explain how this trainer intentionally got a cadaver to ride his horse, and win.




--Overthespeedlimit

Notes --RTW ...see above comments
Activity type 5-1 ML
Activity date 02-29-2016
Track Parx Racing
Surface Dirt
Distance 1 Mile
Race number 3 Post position 4
Race type Claiming
Jockey Llagas W E (sorry about the "cadaver" comment, jockey Llagas)-

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The 2nd horse just happened to catch my eye--well actually Trainer White's situational stats are eye-popping. This trainer is rather ho-hum, nothing to write to mama about--but like all veteran, slightly obscure trainers--he's got an angle---a situation or two, where he excels..he makes his money on. He's doesn't make it on purses---none of them do, at this level. Check his stats \i/

***2015-2016 237 6% 23% +0.19

***+1st start w/trn 30 27% 43% +2.22--- This is from a 6% trainer--unbelievable

***Shipper 85 8% 27% -0.79

***Maiden Clming 273 5% 20% -1.06



--Saratoga Angel

Notes -...see above comments
Activity type 15-1 ML
Activity date 02-29-2016
Track Parx Racing
Surface Dirt
Distance--5F
Race number Post position 2
Race type-Maiden Claiming

let me make sure I get the trainer's name correCt--DONALD WHITE
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

---Classic Giacnroll

Notes --comes back to the level he was claimed at, after trying much tougher--his trainer is sharp, so the fact he thought enough of this one to try him way up in class--says alot. Top-rider aboard, as well

activity type 15-1 ML
Activity date 02-29-2016
Track Parx Racing
Surface Dirt
Distance 1 Mile
Race number 8 -Post position 1
Purse $54,000
Claim price $40,000
Race type Allowance Optional Claiming
Jockey Acosta J D

Hmmm...thought I would have a Turf Paradise horse today--to give johnhannibal something to ponder--but that's it--if you have one--post that bad boy.

-NCG
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Old 02-29-2016, 09:33 AM   #26
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**PACE SPOT PLAYS 2/29

***The lotto $1 straight superfecta:PARX~Race-6 -->> 1-3-6-10

--HOUSTON

7TH AH HUN 15-1

--MAHONING

6TH VIGILANTE LAW 7/2 (thanks Gib)

--TURF PARADISE

8TH GRAY ELIXER 20-1

*These horses pertain to a very specific, profitable pace spot-play---out of all the entries today--these were selected. 3 horses.

have a good day

-NCG
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Old 02-29-2016, 10:59 AM   #27
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NorCalGreg
The Grand Aqueduct Experiment went okay, I suppose. I didn't get the pick-4.....like probably a lot of forumites, I needed BONITA LUNA to win the finale. It wouldn't have paid much, but I was hoping to keep my win streak alive---unfortunately the streak ended at ONE. I'm not the type of player that can do well in multi-race "horizontals"...my forte is waiting for a spot--when an opportunity presents itself, for my kind of handicapping. It's hard enough to win one race LOL.

Horses to Watch for today: I could write a book on how good these PARX horses look today...The first one shows very subtle trainer manuevering, but the trainer can't hide those +15'S pace figs--this one has been setting or pressing those up. 'SpeedLimit is dropping down, trainer is switching to a jock whose basically just a warm body. When this horse wins today--I want jockey-worshipping SRU to explain how this trainer intentionally got a cadaver to ride his horse, and win.




--Overthespeedlimit

Notes --RTW ...see above comments
Activity type 5-1 ML
Activity date 02-29-2016
Track Parx Racing
Surface Dirt
Distance 1 Mile
Race number 3 Post position 4
Race type Claiming
Jockey Llagas W E (sorry about the "cadaver" comment, jockey Llagas)-

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The 2nd horse just happened to catch my eye--well actually Trainer White's situational stats are eye-popping. This trainer is rather ho-hum, nothing to write to mama about--but like all veteran, slightly obscure trainers--he's got an angle---a situation or two, where he excels..he makes his money on. He's doesn't make it on purses---none of them do, at this level. Check his stats \i/

***2015-2016 237 6% 23% +0.19

***+1st start w/trn 30 27% 43% +2.22--- This is from a 6% trainer--unbelievable

***Shipper 85 8% 27% -0.79

***Maiden Clming 273 5% 20% -1.06



--Saratoga Angel

Notes -...see above comments
Activity type 15-1 ML
Activity date 02-29-2016
Track Parx Racing
Surface Dirt
Distance--5F
Race number Post position 2
Race type-Maiden Claiming

let me make sure I get the trainer's name correCt--DONALD WHITE
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

---Classic Giacnroll

Notes --comes back to the level he was claimed at, after trying much tougher--his trainer is sharp, so the fact he thought enough of this one to try him way up in class--says alot. Top-rider aboard, as well

activity type 15-1 ML
Activity date 02-29-2016
Track Parx Racing
Surface Dirt
Distance 1 Mile
Race number 8 -Post position 1
Purse $54,000
Claim price $40,000
Race type Allowance Optional Claiming
Jockey Acosta J D

Hmmm...thought I would have a Turf Paradise horse today--to give johnhannibal something to ponder--but that's it--if you have one--post that bad boy.

-NCG

I like Overthespeedlimit in the 3rd and Classic Giancnroll in the 8th.
I will add the Twenty Percent in the 9th.

I am testing out at Parx, no betting yet.
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Old 02-29-2016, 02:37 PM   #28
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Quote:
Originally Posted by azeri98
I like Overthespeedlimit in the 3rd and Classic Giancnroll in the 8th.
I will add the Twenty Percent in the 9th.

I am testing out at Parx, no betting yet.



Hey AZ..welcome aboard
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Old 02-29-2016, 05:17 PM   #29
johnhannibalsmith
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Quote:
Originally Posted by johnhannibalsmith
...

Taylor Ridge


Naturally the rail draw strikes again and he gets left five at the start. Criminy. Might have been in a little too tough again but one of these days...
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Old 03-01-2016, 01:19 AM   #30
Winger
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Winger
Here's a new method that I'm testing. Back testing has been very positive, therefore it will fall on its face.

Current Bankroll: $200
Wager = $5 Win (2.5% of day's starting bankroll, rounded up, $2 min)
Condition: 2/1 minimum odds at 0 MTP
Today's Selections:
MVR-7 Cinder Tyme (5/1)
TUP-2 Photo Shopped (3/1)
TUP-4 Bounced (9/2)


MVR-7 Cinder Tyme (5/1) - 1st... 14.40 (36.00)
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