Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > General Handicapping Discussion


Reply
 
Thread Tools Rating: Thread Rating: 23 votes, 3.52 average.
Old 09-21-2016, 07:45 PM   #1501
REBel
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: WEST DES MOINES, IA
Posts: 90
Rep Power: 17 REBel is on a distinguished road
LAD

The 9 shown above broke 3rd, in 4th entering lane chasing the speed and had nothing left for the drive. 5/1
REBel is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-21-2016, 08:33 PM   #1502
green80
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Benton, La.
Posts: 1,507
Rep Power: 13 green80 is on a distinguished road
top power in the 8th @ PID $23.80.
green80 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-22-2016, 02:09 AM   #1503
NorCalGreg
 
NorCalGreg's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 6,043
Rep Power: 10 NorCalGreg is on a distinguished road
Par Method

Been doing some thinking on a quick and dirty speed rating par. Forumite bobphilo mentioned something interesting in that crazy bias thread. He was talking about even pace figs--in a horse's running line--I believe he said he liked to see even pace figs----87- 88- 87, for example.

I've always considered that a BIG POSITIVE myself; the horse handled the pace very well, as opposed to common pacelines as 84- 94- 62...70 -67 -90.....or even worse: 92 -105 -60... if the horse with a paceline like that last doesn't figure to be alone up front--he's tossed immediately.
Like he said, it's a "quick and dirty" way to look for a possible standout.

I like to use speed ratings as another quick and dirty "qualifier". Damn near everything I do in handicapping is quick and dirty, so why stop now? Randy Giles--in his fascinating studies of pace-boxes, mentions using speed ratings as a qualifier. Why waste time on horses that very probably have no chance at all--especially at the lower levels? If we can eliminate them---"trim the fat" so to speak, we have less horses to worry about. Even their probable pace contribution if any, doesn't worry me. What this does is open up the race and give me a clearer picture, when I'm only considering 4 or 5 horses.

The race below I've included, because with my quick and dirty speed par method I'm proposing--made it crystal clear (okay NOTHING in handicapping is CRYSTAL CLEAR)..made it clear a longshot may have something to say in the end.

Here's the SPEED PAR METHOD: the Bris speed showing in Pace View is, of course--the best of last two. I take the average of the top three, which in this 8th race @ ALB--we have a top-3 of 93--90--88. About a 90 AVG . My idea is to just eliminate any horse that hasn't come withing 10 of that figure.
So any horse that doesn't show at least an 80 is out. That eliminates 5 horses right there.

The race is a lot more clear now, isn't it? They're all E/P types--but of the 5 left--one horse with a huge late-pace fig stands out--EASY TOPPER @ 20-1. He's no lock to win with the info at hand--but doesn't he definitely look worth a bet at a possible huge price? He's coming off a layoff---which I don't like at all, but his trainer shows a +$1.30 ROI on layoff horses.

With all the speed in the race, a trainer that can win with a rested horse--showing a huge late pace fig, and 20-1 ML--adds up to a sweet wager. Maybe I'll get something like a 'SPEED PAR' into the "Trainer Moves" program that may be next--it's so easy to calculate in your head-- it may not be necessary if we need room for other info.

EASY TOPPER paid $30 to win...one of the eliminated horses--SILENT DEHERE ran 2nd....but we aren't playing exactas here, so who cares?

Something to think about--NCG
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Attached Images
File Type: png EASY TOPPER.png (230.8 KB, 253 views)
__________________
.
.


*Newsletter sign-up
https://tinyletter.com/NorCalGreg


.

*As seen on PaceAdvantage.com, Phillips Racing Newsletter, Horseplayer Monthly, EastCoast PonyPicks... and the laptops of horseplayers everywhere!
NorCalGreg is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-22-2016, 01:32 PM   #1504
NorCalGreg
 
NorCalGreg's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 6,043
Rep Power: 10 NorCalGreg is on a distinguished road
BELMONT TOP 1--2 POWER

Wonder if our mojo is still working @ Belmont---one way to find out:


----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Attached Images
File Type: png belmont.png (190.6 KB, 212 views)
__________________
.
.


*Newsletter sign-up
https://tinyletter.com/NorCalGreg


.

*As seen on PaceAdvantage.com, Phillips Racing Newsletter, Horseplayer Monthly, EastCoast PonyPicks... and the laptops of horseplayers everywhere!
NorCalGreg is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-22-2016, 02:48 PM   #1505
green80
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Benton, La.
Posts: 1,507
Rep Power: 13 green80 is on a distinguished road
top power is having a good day at FL so far, 3 of the 1st 4, 9.10, 6.80, 3.30
green80 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-22-2016, 05:23 PM   #1506
green80
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Benton, La.
Posts: 1,507
Rep Power: 13 green80 is on a distinguished road
at FL top power 6 wins out of 9 races.
green80 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-22-2016, 06:28 PM   #1507
NorCalGreg
 
NorCalGreg's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 6,043
Rep Power: 10 NorCalGreg is on a distinguished road
Quote:
Originally Posted by green80
at FL top power 6 wins out of 9 races.

That's great--even a couple decent prices @ FLX. You know PV Pro nailed all 9 winners @ FLX one day.

"DUCKS" are doing great this week: I know we had a $40 and a couple $30 already this week--nailed another at APX today. I haven't looked at the remaining cards except CDX--see one there-- RUBY RUMBA.

If you don't know how we go "duck hunting"...GET THE SCRATCHES FIRST---then click the #1POWER. Any horse in double digit ML odds? There's your DUCK. Power Number is designed to select the most likely winner--that's all.
Sometimes that "most likely winner" is 10-1+

This was the DUCK at Arlington:

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Attached Images
File Type: png apx duck.PNG (47.7 KB, 196 views)
__________________
.
.


*Newsletter sign-up
https://tinyletter.com/NorCalGreg


.

*As seen on PaceAdvantage.com, Phillips Racing Newsletter, Horseplayer Monthly, EastCoast PonyPicks... and the laptops of horseplayers everywhere!
NorCalGreg is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-22-2016, 10:52 PM   #1508
green80
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Benton, La.
Posts: 1,507
Rep Power: 13 green80 is on a distinguished road
Has anybody kept a running tab on these "ducks" to see if they win often enough to keep you in the + column? I see another job coming
green80 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-23-2016, 02:03 AM   #1509
NorCalGreg
 
NorCalGreg's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 6,043
Rep Power: 10 NorCalGreg is on a distinguished road
Quote:
Originally Posted by green80
Has anybody kept a running tab on these "ducks" to see if they win often enough to keep you in the + column? I see another job coming
It's not completely that simple--some tracks RARELY have any. Those are the best, in my experience. Some tracks have half-dozen a day---those are the ones to avoid--like the recent KD meet.

Ducks aplenty @ KD--lot's of longshots won, they just weren't "ours". My theory on that is you have horses coming from all over for those fat purses--Several races would have 2 or 3 at once. I tried to be very selective--use common sense.....didn't work for me there. I would bet one of two in a race---the OTHER one would win...stuff like that.

What I'm getting at---be a little suspicious if you see more than 1 or 2. And tracks like FLX or LRC, etc---that never have ANY...usually the DUCK will be a maiden race with little info on most of the starters. Sort of a "false duck"

What I know about LAST RACE PACE LINES, TOP POWER, etc...comes from looking at maybe 10K of these races, lined up in this manner. If you look at anything long enough--patterns emerge. Some are unprogrammable because the "pattern" is a series of unconscious events--that you know exactly what it is, but you simply can't put this "situation" onto software. Hell....you probably can't even write it down, perfectly.

I'd still be interested in an overall view of these plays---tomorrow is Friday--I'll post 'em up when I can.

I was thinking about the "100-race" testing....what does a good longshot player have for a strike rate? 5%? 10%? 15%? Probably somewhere in
there. It depends on our definition of what a "longshot" is. Mine is a payoff of $20+. If we averaged a $25.00 mutual--we need 8% to break even.
100 races...8 winners @ $25 = $200. Exactly what we wagered on those 100 races.

These wagers HAVE to be made after scratches--not sure why, but when the big scary favorite is scratched--and a DUCK is moved into the top spot, they seem to win more than their fair share. Happened today @ APX.

So I'll keep a record--won't be able to post them AFTER SCRATCHES sometimes...if not I'll just skip the day or skip that track, whatever. What gets posted will all be legit plays.

It will take a while to get to 100--

Let's see what happens--NCG
__________________
.
.


*Newsletter sign-up
https://tinyletter.com/NorCalGreg


.

*As seen on PaceAdvantage.com, Phillips Racing Newsletter, Horseplayer Monthly, EastCoast PonyPicks... and the laptops of horseplayers everywhere!
NorCalGreg is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-23-2016, 07:03 PM   #1510
NorCalGreg
 
NorCalGreg's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 6,043
Rep Power: 10 NorCalGreg is on a distinguished road
TWO DUCKS IN THE POND

Thanks to PV aficionado Ron (REB)

Coming up

RPx 7th Race IMALITTLEHAZY @ 15-1

ALB 6th Race DREAMCATCHER 10-1

Keep in mind we're shooting for 10% strike rate on these....

Also I see a chance to put my SPEED PAR METHOD to work

ALB 3rd Race ALMOSTEVENWITHEVAN...not a big price, just an example of how "trimming the fat" shows a different race. All of a sudden this 7-2 shot looks dominant. You can go over entire cards at lower tier tracks to find these:
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
EDIT: I just scratch the horses that don't "qualify" ---there are other horses in this race, they just appear in here as scratched--ncg

Attached Images
File Type: png ALB3rd.PNG (164.4 KB, 135 views)
__________________
.
.


*Newsletter sign-up
https://tinyletter.com/NorCalGreg


.

*As seen on PaceAdvantage.com, Phillips Racing Newsletter, Horseplayer Monthly, EastCoast PonyPicks... and the laptops of horseplayers everywhere!

Last edited by NorCalGreg; 09-23-2016 at 07:06 PM.
NorCalGreg is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-24-2016, 03:40 AM   #1511
NorCalGreg
 
NorCalGreg's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 6,043
Rep Power: 10 NorCalGreg is on a distinguished road
Quote:
Originally Posted by NorCalGreg
Thanks to PV aficionado Ron (REB)

Coming up

RPx 7th Race IMALITTLEHAZY @ 15-1

ALB 6th Race DREAMCATCHER 10-1 $9.60

Keep in mind we're shooting for 10% strike rate on these....

Also I see a chance to put my SPEED PAR METHOD to work

ALB 3rd Race ALMOSTEVENWITHEVAN...not a big price, just an example of how "trimming the fat" shows a different race. All of a sudden this 7-2 shot looks dominant. You can go over entire cards at lower tier tracks to find these:
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
EDIT: I just scratch the horses that don't "qualify" ---there are other horses in this race, they just appear in here as scratched--ncg

ALB 3rd race ALMOSTEVENWITHEVEN ----late scratch

One of the 2 DUCKS won but paid a paltry $9.60---we'll need a lot more than that to reach profitability.

Where are the EXOTIC beta-testers, with the fascinating feedback on how to go about making an exotics program out of PV info???

It may not have been that great an idea--but I do have a cool logo for it.
Just can't slap something together and sell it---may just go in another direction with TRAINER MOVES.

The deal with this logo is---I can change it in a heartbeat, from EXOTIC to TRAINER MOVES....I was thinking about making a show parlay program--since LIGHT is a professional show bettor, he could be my spokesman --
thinking of calling it:

Pace View ~ SHOW 'NUFF.

What ya think, LIGHT? I know you read every single word I type up here

Let me know--NCG
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Attached Images
File Type: png 3X3EXOTIC.png (14.8 KB, 111 views)
__________________
.
.


*Newsletter sign-up
https://tinyletter.com/NorCalGreg


.

*As seen on PaceAdvantage.com, Phillips Racing Newsletter, Horseplayer Monthly, EastCoast PonyPicks... and the laptops of horseplayers everywhere!
NorCalGreg is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-24-2016, 02:01 PM   #1512
NorCalGreg
 
NorCalGreg's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 6,043
Rep Power: 10 NorCalGreg is on a distinguished road
NEW SPOT PLAY

This is a TRAINER MOVES spot play--see how it does
---------------------------------------------------------

Attached Images
File Type: png SPOT PLAY.png (249.1 KB, 91 views)
__________________
.
.


*Newsletter sign-up
https://tinyletter.com/NorCalGreg


.

*As seen on PaceAdvantage.com, Phillips Racing Newsletter, Horseplayer Monthly, EastCoast PonyPicks... and the laptops of horseplayers everywhere!
NorCalGreg is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-24-2016, 02:42 PM   #1513
NorCalGreg
 
NorCalGreg's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 6,043
Rep Power: 10 NorCalGreg is on a distinguished road
* TOP ABILITY / STAKES RACES @ PARX

7TH GRANNY'S KITTEN 7-2

8TH CYRUS ALEXANDER 6-1

9TH KLINGON WARRIOR 20-1

10TH SONGBIRD 1-2

11TH NYQUIST 5-2
__________________
.
.


*Newsletter sign-up
https://tinyletter.com/NorCalGreg


.

*As seen on PaceAdvantage.com, Phillips Racing Newsletter, Horseplayer Monthly, EastCoast PonyPicks... and the laptops of horseplayers everywhere!
NorCalGreg is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-24-2016, 02:47 PM   #1514
NorCalGreg
 
NorCalGreg's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 6,043
Rep Power: 10 NorCalGreg is on a distinguished road
Duck Hunting 9/24

ALB

3RD HOMER'S WHISKEY GAL 15-1

4TH GOLD RUNNER WHO 10-1

LRL

5TH INVOLUNTARY 10-1

7TH HE'LL PAY 10-1

RPX

1ST DIANNE CANT RETIRE 10-1

8TH DREAMING BLUE 12-1


good luck today-NCG
__________________
.
.


*Newsletter sign-up
https://tinyletter.com/NorCalGreg


.

*As seen on PaceAdvantage.com, Phillips Racing Newsletter, Horseplayer Monthly, EastCoast PonyPicks... and the laptops of horseplayers everywhere!
NorCalGreg is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-24-2016, 03:29 PM   #1515
jim michalak
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jul 2014
Posts: 13
Rep Power: 0 jim michalak is on a distinguished road
Wink race 2 belmont 9/24/16

#1 in ability points (+38) in race 2 devilish grin placed at 25/1 paying $17.60. $2 box exacta with favorite #5 glennevan paid $132.00.

Last edited by jim michalak; 09-24-2016 at 03:35 PM.
jim michalak is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply




Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
» Current Polls
Which handicapping software has given you the best ROI?
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 06:10 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2018, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2018 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved -- Best Viewed in a modern browser @ 1280x720 Resolution Or Higher
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.