Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > General Handicapping Discussion


Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread
Old 04-21-2018, 03:09 PM   #1
gabe
Registered User
 
gabe's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2017
Posts: 97
Rep Power: 2 gabe is on a distinguished road
First time starters, teach me what to look for.

Let's talk "First-time starters". When looking at first time starters what do you look for? I could definitely use a refresher on what to look for with firsters.

I have been handicapping since I was 7 years old. But I don't think I've been approaching first time starters the wrong way.
gabe is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-21-2018, 03:35 PM   #2
Baron Star Gregg
Registered User
 
Baron Star Gregg's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2015
Posts: 60
Rep Power: 3 Baron Star Gregg is on a distinguished road
The barn, the pedigree and the works (relative to the trainer). All of this needs to be viewed relative to the field. That probably doesn't help much but it is the starting point.
Baron Star Gregg is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-21-2018, 03:38 PM   #3
dav4463
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: denton. tx
Posts: 2,951
Rep Power: 19 dav4463 is on a distinguished road
8/1 or less on the morning line.
__________________
david stewart
dav4463 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-21-2018, 03:38 PM   #4
GMB@BP
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 1,996
Rep Power: 18 GMB@BP will become famous soon enoughGMB@BP will become famous soon enough
I dont try to figure them out.

I either find a horse with 2 3 or 4 starts that I prefer.

Its a guess, even from top barns. If you buy workout reports, then maybe.

If its a race that I hate the experienced horses I am spreading but usually passing. Guessing has not worked at all for me over the years.

First time starters are almost always overbet.
GMB@BP is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-21-2018, 04:05 PM   #5
headhawg
Registered User
 
headhawg's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: Virtual Reality hell
Posts: 2,881
Rep Power: 17 headhawg is on a distinguished road
1 and 1a. -- trainer stats and sire stats with FTS. I know you can lie with statistics, but used correctly they will put you on live FTS.

2. Morning line. I'm not sure if 8-1 is the magic number as has been suggested, but I think that it is important. Look for an ML in the lowest three or four (depending on field size). I would add that the tote board can help here as well.

3. A competent jockey at the very least. What trainer would want a slug riding a good maiden?

4. (optional) Yeah, if you know the workout pattern of the trainer it's certainly helpful, but the trainer win% is good enough for me.

I don't have recent stats, but FTS are up against it. I would pass on playing one unless the top three above are a go. And when in doubt, just pass the race entirely.
headhawg is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-21-2018, 04:31 PM   #6
thaskalos
"Awake!"
 
thaskalos's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 20,100
Rep Power: 39 thaskalos is a name known to allthaskalos is a name known to allthaskalos is a name known to allthaskalos is a name known to allthaskalos is a name known to allthaskalos is a name known to all
When half the field is comprised of firsters...then I don't give the race a second look. In the other cases, the quality of the more "experienced" competition will decide how I will approach the remaining firsters. The more accomplished the experienced horses look...the more I will doubt the winning chances of even the well-regarded firsters. If the field looks below average ability-wise, then I will include a "well-connected" firster in my horizontal wagers...but I never have enough confidence to wager on such a horse to win. I mean...even Secretariat lost his first race.
__________________
"It frustrates me to be wrong when I know I'm right."
-- Moliere
thaskalos is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-21-2018, 04:40 PM   #7
Tom
Registered User
 
Tom's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 83,627
Rep Power: 108 Tom is a splendid one to beholdTom is a splendid one to beholdTom is a splendid one to beholdTom is a splendid one to beholdTom is a splendid one to beholdTom is a splendid one to beholdTom is a splendid one to behold
What does the rest of the field look like?
Are they a bunch with multiple tries and speed figures below the norm for MSW winners?

If the field looks weak, the FTS might have a good chance.
Of course considering trainer/owner records, odds, and pedigree.

I don't find many FTS worth a bet due to odds too low.
there are lot of other races coming up in 10 minutes for me to waste a lot of time on a firster.

Iwill sooner play a full field of M30,000 NYBs with dozens of tries.
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
Tom is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-21-2018, 05:49 PM   #8
jay68802
Registered User
 
jay68802's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 6,116
Rep Power: 20 jay68802 is a glorious beacon of lightjay68802 is a glorious beacon of lightjay68802 is a glorious beacon of lightjay68802 is a glorious beacon of lightjay68802 is a glorious beacon of light
And one thing that does not appear in the form, Blinkers.
jay68802 is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-21-2018, 09:52 PM   #9
BlueChip@DRF
Random Numbers Generator
 
BlueChip@DRF's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: In the grandstand looking under the seats for tickets
Posts: 1,782
Rep Power: 18 BlueChip@DRF is on a distinguished road
I usually play 2nd time starters, but in open MSW only.
__________________
KEEP CALM AND BET THE BOMB

BlueChip@DRF is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-21-2018, 10:57 PM   #10
HalvOnHorseracing
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2015
Location: Denver
Posts: 3,296
Rep Power: 6 HalvOnHorseracing is on a distinguished road
o One thing I look for in a first time starter is a fast workout early in the workout sequence and then evenly spaced works for no more than 6-8 weeks. I toss horses that worked a long time before racing. That tells me there is a problem.

o Watching the board can be helpful. I look for the horse to get a couple of big betting infusions.

o Some sires, like Storm Cat, have a lot of precocious progeny. Those sires are good to know.

o At Saratoga, Pletcher first timers win 40% of the 6 furlong 2 YO maiden dirt sprints. Chad Brown is great with first time fillies on the turf. And 2 YO state-bred maidens are impossible to figure out consistently.
HalvOnHorseracing is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-22-2018, 08:51 AM   #11
Whosonfirst
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: USA
Posts: 772
Rep Power: 10 Whosonfirst will become famous soon enoughWhosonfirst will become famous soon enough
Quote:
Originally Posted by HalvOnHorseracing View Post
o One thing I look for in a first time starter is a fast workout early in the workout sequence and then evenly spaced works for no more than 6-8 weeks. I toss horses that worked a long time before racing. That tells me there is a problem.

o Watching the board can be helpful. I look for the horse to get a couple of big betting infusions.

o Some sires, like Storm Cat, have a lot of precocious progeny. Those sires are good to know.

o At Saratoga, Pletcher first timers win 40% of the 6 furlong 2 YO maiden dirt sprints. Chad Brown is great with first time fillies on the turf. And 2 YO state-bred maidens are impossible to figure out consistently.
I'm the same way with horses out of First Dude, especially in maiden sprints.
__________________
Predicting the outcome of a horse race is an activity that exerts continuing appeal to the extraordinarily opulent. It is intellectually lucrative albeit fiscally ruinous.-Richard Epstein
Whosonfirst is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-22-2018, 10:03 AM   #12
BELMONT 6-6-09
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: New York
Posts: 1,197
Rep Power: 15 BELMONT 6-6-09 will become famous soon enough
I like to see some good gate works 4 F or 5F. Workouts under 4 furlongs are not as effective as the longer works. Watch the FTS that is holding his odds steady late in the betting when the top 3 or 4 choices are being bet hard. At Saratoga it is amazing to see top trainers win with FTS at 10/1 or higher while the crowd hammers the top trainers lower priced FTS.
BELMONT 6-6-09 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-22-2018, 10:45 AM   #13
Dave Schwartz
 
Dave Schwartz's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Reno, NV
Posts: 13,751
Rep Power: 33 Dave Schwartz is a jewel in the roughDave Schwartz is a jewel in the roughDave Schwartz is a jewel in the rough
Personally, I skip FTS races because there are so many other fish in the see.

However, I could play them. The strategy I employ is to wait until the end of the handicapping, after the final contenders have been selected.

Then I look at a single "object" (i.e. 5 factors weighted together) that are all "FTS friendly" so the entire field can be handicapping on an even basis.

Factors such as jockey, trainer, best workout rating in last 45 days, days since last race RaceOrWork will do.

Any FTS who comes in ranked within 1 pt of my 2nd-best contender qualifies.
Dave Schwartz is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-22-2018, 11:33 AM   #14
Ruffian1
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Posts: 709
Rep Power: 5 Ruffian1 has a spectacular aura aboutRuffian1 has a spectacular aura about
There are a lot of really solid angles in here to use IMO. Some great advice. All I would add would be to not play it with the same monetary emphasis as other types of races if you play it .

Many horses are very well intended but some just need a race, or even a couple of races to get themselves mentally together. Especially those without a high early turn of foot and solid gate ethic. Secretariat comes to mind. Yikes.
Ruffian1 is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-22-2018, 12:26 PM   #15
Track Phantom
Registered User
 
Track Phantom's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Austin, Tx
Posts: 2,522
Rep Power: 13 Track Phantom is on a distinguished road
First off: If anyone in this forum wants to try my handicapping sheets for free today, just email me and I'll send them to you (thephantom@trackphantom.com).

As far as 1sters go, I don't think there is a "catch-all" approach. It really depends on how the horses in the field you have run look. If they are weak compared to par for the level, then it opens up for a first timer.

Trainer intent is first and foremost the thing to flush out. Some trainers give their runners an out before they are tight and others look to win right away. I use DRF Formulator to identify this.

Secondly, if a trainer is live first out, I'll expand the filter in DRF Formulator to include all workouts and review his winners to see if the patterns are similar.

I also will review clocker reports where I can. Not a bad idea to see some speed and win early pedigree in the bloodlines.
__________________
www.trackphantom.com
full card analysis
Track Phantom is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply




Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
» Current Polls
What Will Sports Betting offered at Tracks/via ADW do to your play?
I will bet a lot more sports, less racing - 16.15%
21 Votes
I will bet some sports, but racing is number one to me - 30.77%
40 Votes
It won't affect my play at all - 53.08%
69 Votes
Total Votes: 130
Non-members may not vote on this poll.
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 01:31 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2018, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2018 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved -- Best Viewed in a modern browser @ 1280x720 Resolution Or Higher
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.