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Old 04-20-2018, 12:17 PM   #1
andicap
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So why do people keep playing

As I debate whether to jump back into this sport, I can only wonder why so many people on this board complain so much about how difficult it is to win these days -- what with the small fields, whales, odds drops, drugs, etc. -- but yet they keep on playing.

My question with all earnestness -- and I'm not trying to be snarky -- is why?
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Old 04-20-2018, 12:43 PM   #2
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Because I still feel the game is beatable.

I will have no problem stopping if I change my mind.

BTW, nice to see your name here again!

Hope all is well.
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Old 04-20-2018, 12:55 PM   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by andicap View Post
My question with all earnestness -- and I'm not trying to be snarky -- is why?
I think it's psychologically much like being in a bad relationship -- the devil you know.
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Old 04-20-2018, 01:02 PM   #4
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I keep playing because old habits are tough to break. I have invested a great deal of time and effort in this game, to the point where it has become a major component of who I am...and to give it up would be akin to denying that a substantial part of myself still exists. For the ultra-serious player, this isn't just a "game"...it's a LIFESTYLE...and changing "lifestyles" is very hard when you've reached an "advanced" age. A sudden lifestyle-change of this magnitude, at my age, might prove to be a great shock to my system.
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Old 04-20-2018, 01:08 PM   #5
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Really no way to know , but I'd love the see the stat on what % of player wins today, vs 20 or 30 years ago.

Might not be as big a diff as you think. Then again....
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Old 04-20-2018, 01:12 PM   #6
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Originally Posted by andicap View Post
As I debate whether to jump back into this sport...
Please let us know how your internal "debate" turns out.
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Old 04-20-2018, 01:17 PM   #7
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Originally Posted by andicap View Post
As I debate whether to jump back into this sport, I can only wonder why so many people on this board complain so much about how difficult it is to win these days -- what with the small fields, whales, odds drops, drugs, etc. -- but yet they keep on playing.

My question with all earnestness -- and I'm not trying to be snarky -- is why?
I dont, simple as that

I play in contest now. I am at a 1.8 ROI so far this year, though I am into the big money qualifiers now so I suppose that will go down quite a bit until I hit a big one.

I wagered 1.1 million in 2002, my biggest year ever, all through windows with no rebate.

Last year I bet 25k.

This year I might not top 10k.

But the tracks got their CRW teams, I aint gonna pay their wages.
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Old 04-20-2018, 01:42 PM   #8
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Since parimutuel wagering is a Dutch Book, a proposition aimed to favor the house, consistent bettors must be irrational actors spurred on by a subjective feeling, a belief. This belief hinges on a feeling that we know more than our peers. Why? Because we know, analogize is a better term, that the other bettors are like us and also irrational. Even the last-second-posting algo's are designed by men and those men are fallible. Hence the wonderfully contradictory nature of the parimutuel system: it is both invincible and vulnerable, it repels and attracts.

Every time I bet, I am stating I am better (in this race, I know something you don't) and no better (in this game, we are all acting on a belief) than my peers. No machine can think this way. By betting I affirm my humanity and come closer to understanding what may transcend it.
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Old 04-20-2018, 02:21 PM   #9
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Believe me Thaskalos you are not of an "advanced" age. Your other points are well taken. Good luck to you. Always a pleasure reading your posts.
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Old 04-20-2018, 02:27 PM   #10
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Believe me Thaskalos you are not of an "advanced" age. Your other points are well taken. Good luck to you. Always a pleasure reading your posts.
Much obliged for your kind words...and I wish you all the best as well.
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Old 04-20-2018, 02:40 PM   #11
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I keep playing because old habits are tough to break. I have invested a great deal of time and effort in this game, to the point where it has become a major component of who I am...and to give it up would be akin to denying that a substantial part of myself still exists. For the ultra-serious player, this isn't just a "game"...it's a LIFESTYLE...and changing "lifestyles" is very hard when you've reached an "advanced" age. A sudden lifestyle-change of this magnitude, at my age, might prove to be a great shock to my system.
Extremely well said and I totally agree... But if i knew then what I know now, I might not have made the commitment.
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Old 04-20-2018, 02:46 PM   #12
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Extremely well said and I totally agree... But if i knew then what I know now, I might not have made the commitment.

You're supposed to be having fun.

I didn't know this was a form of torture, though at times......
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Old 04-20-2018, 03:09 PM   #13
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I will make this answer very personal and pretty long .

Should have, would have and could have. When you play as many pick 4's, pick 5's, pick 6's and super high 5 (with carryovers) as I do, and you are constantly right there to huge money (just off the top of my head I can name a $50,000 rainbow six, 2 mohawk harness pick 5's that nobody hit (so at least $50,000 each) a $13,000 super high five at Hawthorne Harness that I absolutely should have hit last year (not even would have or could have). This year I must have played about 30 rainbow sixes and would say that I had 5 of 6 on about 20 of them (if only so and so would have won I would have won $15,000 or if so and so would have won $8000 etc, yawn). The ones that I do hit I end up being 10 deep in a key race and watch the 8/5 win like a 1/5 shot and i get back about $500.

With wps betting, if you keep records it is really hard to delude yourself away from the truth. If I bet 500 or 700 win or win/place bets a year and am losing 10% or 15% on the dollar, nothing rational can convince me that anything other than being outplayed by better competition is to blame. My long term probability is the sum of each bets's short term probability and if isn't positive, I am doing something wrong. But if I am losing 10% on super exotics but can name so many close calls for large sums of money, then the it takes a lot longer for reality to slap me in the face or for a couple of scores to actually turn the tables and put me into the black.

All this being said, my performance the last 3 years, while not great helped me maintain hope. I actually felt like I had legitimate hope to cross the line into profits. However, my performance in 2018 has been absolutely dreadful. Whether it is pressure, bad decision making, battle scars, bad luck, short term bad spell, or me regressing to a pretty weak mean, if things do turn around pretty significantly, my betting will likely be reduced to just superexotics. Either you grind or you get grinded and all indications to me are that I for the most part (with the exception of the superexotics) am getting grinded (much more so in thoroughbred then in Harness where I am still very confident in my abilities but for some reason the pick 4's, pick 5 are the only places I can seem to make any traction.I have even sucked on those in 2018 yet I am still well in the black on those bets.

IF I lose $10,000 chasing a legitimate chances of hitting a 40,000 to $50,000 scores that is acceptable and rational to me If. I lose the same $10,000 trying to grind on straight bets (only to get grinded) and this continues to happen, then I would be pretty darn stupid to persist in that behavior. Now on the other hand if the $10,000 lost chasing superexotics becomes, $15,000, $20,000, $25,000, then I would just be getting grinded there as well and would have to give those up as well. Only time can tell.

Bottom line is record keeping is paramount, but ultimately unless we are surviving this game, or are loaded with cash, many will ultimately continue to drop out of this game. For me time will tell. Worse case scenario, is that I am attacking the 20 cent pick 4's and pick 5's at Mohawk Harness, more likely I will be chasing pick 4 and pick 5 carryovers and even pick 6's at the thoroughbreds as well. To be honest not sure I am able to make money straight betting (win, place, exactas, trifectas) any of them anymore. I haven't waved the white flag, just yet, but it is sitting right next to me ready for action.

I just see too many horses that look good to me, that are completely ignored in the betting and run to how they are bet (then when they do win the whales knock them down from 54-1 to 28-1 after the bell). Even at the harness races, I like a longshot, he gets a dream 2 hole trip (I have him boxed with the favorite he is sitting behind) I feel like I am completely home and he just goes backwards in the lane. I can stare at the past performances for an hour after the race and my opinion doesn't really change. The money seems to know things that are not apparent to me. It is not an every race happening, but it certainly happens too darn often. Unfortunately this is not an ingredient for success. I need horses that I make 5-1 that are 20-1 to at least run like 10-1 shots, not like they are true 40-1 shots as too many do.
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Old 04-20-2018, 03:26 PM   #14
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For the same reason that golfers who can't break 100 still play: because they enjoy PLAYING even though they may lose money.

Golf isn't cheap either.

Just sayin'.
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Old 04-20-2018, 03:37 PM   #15
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For the same reason that golfers who can't break 100 still play: because they enjoy PLAYING even though they may lose money.

Golf isn't cheap either.

Just sayin'.
I usually bust a solid 2-3k on golf a year

On racing since I break even I am out the cost of some data products, maybe 500 bucks. I spend 5x more time on racing.
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