Future Pool 2

[PowerUpPaynter]

Good Day,


Can't wait to see the odds this week. What you guys looking for in pool 2? Im curious as to what the odds will be on Moheyman and Nyquist and depending how Nyquist looks saturday how it effects the odds. I usually never like a favorite in future pools bur man, Mohaymen looks something special... Love to get 9-1 for $100.

I think the pts system has to change the way we think about the Derby. I think due to the fact that all the pts races are routes that it will eliminate the sprinter type horse who runs up the fractions in the derby thus creating a longshot/ or closer winner. The pts system should keep the best horses winning the race. So now its like if i can get 9-1 on a favorite that will be 3-1 derby day thats a solid bet.

[Raider]

I think that is true. Look at the place winners of 2013 and 2014,both over 30-1 odds. So now instead of looking for a longshot winner, think I will be looking for the longshot to come in second or third

[sbcaris]

Just another way of looking at the results: In 2012 Bodemeister set the pace in a suicidal 109 4/5 for 6 furlongs in the Derby and lasted for second behind Ill Have Another. He was a good middle distance horse who won the Ark Derby by a big margin. The new point system would never stop Bodemeister from being a pronounced frontrunner. He was not just a sprinter but a miler and perhaps a 9 furlong horse. He just could not last the 10 furlongs of the Derby when setting such a wicked pace.

Horses that win these early routes like the Robert E Lewis or Tampa Bay Derby or Fountain of Youth can be early speedsters who just do not want to go 10 furlongs. Very often early speedsters that run well in major 9 furlong prep races on the front end or very close to it, do not win the roses come Derby Day. Examples: Peace Rules in 2003, Lion Heart in 2004, Hard Spun in 2007, Bob Black Jack in 2008, Shackleford in 2011, Bodemeister in 2012, and Dortmund in 2015 were all front-running types that could not last the Derby distance. Each of these horses above were not just sprinters and would get into the Derby on the present point system. Yet they were not true 10 furlong horses.

Main point: The modern point system does not stop a horse from winging some fast fractions on the front end of the run for the roses. Its quite possible that this years Derby will have a winner of a major prep race on the front end actually be the pacesetter in the run for the roses. Often the pacesetter in the Derby does not hit the board at all.

[HorsemenHeist]

I'm on the Brody's Cause bandwagon for now. Really liked his Keeneland races considering the short stretch there. His race at Churchill, he closed the final quarter in 23 flat going a mile. The long stretch at Churchill and the 10 furlongs might be up his alley. Think he is a serious horse for a trainer that has had horses run well in the Derby. Believe he is pointing for the Tampa Derby. If he's 25/1 or so, I'll plunge.

[Ghostzapper04]

Originally Posted by sbcaris

Just another way of looking at the results: In 2012 Bodemeister set the pace in a suicidal 109 4/5 for 6 furlongs in the Derby and lasted for second behind Ill Have Another. He was a good middle distance horse who won the Ark Derby by a big margin. The new point system would never stop Bodemeister from being a pronounced frontrunner. He was not just a sprinter but a miler and perhaps a 9 furlong horse. He just could not last the 10 furlongs of the Derby when setting such a wicked pace.

Horses that win these early routes like the Robert E Lewis or Tampa Bay Derby or Fountain of Youth can be early speedsters who just do not want to go 10 furlongs. Very often early speedsters that run well in major 9 furlong prep races on the front end or very close to it, do not win the roses come Derby Day. Examples: Peace Rules in 2003, Lion Heart in 2004, Hard Spun in 2007, Bob Black Jack in 2008, Shackleford in 2011, Bodemeister in 2012, and Dortmund in 2015 were all front-running types that could not last the Derby distance. Each of these horses above were not just sprinters and would get into the Derby on the present point system. Yet they were not true 10 furlong horses.

Main point: The modern point system does not stop a horse from winging some fast fractions on the front end of the run for the roses. Its quite possible that this years Derby will have a winner of a major prep race on the front end actually be the pacesetter in the run for the roses. Often the pacesetter in the Derby does not hit the board at all.

Bodemeister wouldn't have set that wicked pace without sprinter Trinniberg in the race. The latter would no longer qualify to start in the Derby.

[Ghostzapper04]

Say a horse had the points and was progressing nicely to the Derby at this time. What would be the odds you'd bet that the horse will even make it to the starting gate?

I wouldn't touch anything less than 7:2.

[PowerUpPaynter]

Originally Posted by HorsemenHeist

I'm on the Brody's Cause bandwagon for now. Really liked his Keeneland races considering the short stretch there. His race at Churchill, he closed the final quarter in 23 flat going a mile. The long stretch at Churchill and the 10 furlongs might be up his alley. Think he is a serious horse for a trainer that has had horses run well in the Derby. Believe he is pointing for the Tampa Derby. If he's 25/1 or so, I'll plunge.

25/1 id take all day on Brody's Cause


But i really think this Moheyman is really special.... like really special... Maybe im a sucker for the winter breakout horse but man he looks worth every penny of the 2.2 mil he was purchased for

[PowerUpPaynter]

Originally Posted by Ghostzapper04

Bodemeister wouldn't have set that wicked pace without sprinter Trinniberg in the race. The latter would no longer qualify to start in the Derby.

that is a great point. so true

[f2tornado]

I really like Mohaymen and am hoping for better than 5-1. If I do like a favorite in the Future Wager then I tend to play more in the exacta department. In this case I might do a $10 box Mohaymen/All Others. This covers the Golden Soul and Commanding Curve types or an under the radar winner. The other nice thing with the Future exacta is your horse doesn't necessarily have to finish in the first two. It just has to be better than the rest. I'll probably use Airoforce, Brody, and GPC at least underneath as well.

[sbcaris]

Ghostzapper: You said, Bodemeister would not have set that wicked pace if Trinniberg was not in the race. That is true but you missed my main point which is as follows:

The modern day point system does not deter a horse from setting a fast pace in the Derby. Bodemeister who won the Ark Derby certainly had enough points to enter the Derby and was a pronounced frontrunner. If Trinniberg was not in the race maybe Bodemeister sets a slower pace but then again maybe not. Perhaps Bodemeister goes 6 furlongs in 109 4/5 regardless of who is in the race simply because thats his running style. There is no way of knowing what would have prevailed if Trinniberg did not run in that Derby.

Another interesting example was in 2013 when Palace Malice who gained enough points to enter the Derby by running second in the Blue Grass set an unrealistic pace of 109 and change over the sloppy track. Palace Malice was another horse who set a wildly fast pace and certainly wasn't a sprinter type who did not belong in the Derby as evidenced by his Belmont stakes win a few weeks later.

Main point: The modern day point system does not deter quality frontrunners from entering the Derby.

[PowerUpPaynter]

1. Airoforce 20-1

2. Awesome Banner* 30-1

3. Brody's Cause 30-1

4. Cherry Wine* 50-1

5. Cocked and Loaded 50-1

6. Collected* 30-1

7. Danzing Candy* 30-1

8. Discreetness* 50-1

9. Exaggerator 20-1

10. Gettysburg* 50-1

11. Gift Box 30-1

12. Greenpointcrusader 20-1

13. Gun Runner 50-1

14. Mo Tom* 50-1

15. Mohaymen 8-1

16. Mor Spirit 15-1

17. Nyquist 12-1

18. Shagaf* 30-1

19. Smokey Image* 30-1

20. Tom's Ready* 50-1

21. Vorticity* 50-1

22. Whitmore* 50-1

23. Zulu* 30-1

24. Mutuel Field (All Others) 4-5



Odds ill be watching

Airoforce - Ill be buying over 25-1

Brody's Cause - 30-1 im in but i have a feeling those odds will drop

Cherry Wine - 50-1 is worth a few bucks just based on the wise guy buzz iv been hearing

Discreetness - 50-1 worth a few bucks

Exaggerator - anything north of 30-1 im in

Moheyman - 8-1 is so tempting only because he is so good... like sooooo good. but man 8-1 in February is such a suckers bet... I might be a sucker

Nyquist - 12-1 is interesting, lets see how he runs saturday. really what im hoping for is a romp by him which throws money his way and bumps Moheyman up a little.

Shagaf - 30-1 worth a few bucks if the 30-1 holds

Smokey Image - 30-1 im a sucker for visually impressive wins in January.. sue me.. lol

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter

Odds ill be watching

Cherry Wine - 50-1 is worth a few bucks just based on the wise guy buzz iv been hearing- Currently 75-1 at William Hill

Discreetness - 50-1 worth a few bucks- Currently 100-1 at William Hill

Nyquist - 12-1 is interesting, lets see how he runs saturday. really what im hoping for is a romp by him which throws money his way and bumps Moheyman up a little.-Currently 15-1 at William Hill

Smokey Image - 30-1 im a sucker for visually impressive wins in January.. sue me.. lol- Currently 40-1 at Wynn

Bolded above, here are some better prices at the Big 2 future books in Vegas.....

[PowerUpPaynter]

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

Bolded above, here are some better prices at the Big 2 future books in Vegas.....

I guess id have to actually go to vegas to make that bet tho?

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter

I guess id have to actually go to vegas to make that bet tho?

Depends on how much you want to bet. Just giving you a barometer of value.....Good Luck.

[f2tornado]

8-1 would be a gift for Mohaymen, February be damned. I will bet at 6-1. The California contingent getting a lot of play, at least among casual fans. Perhaps Nyquist and the others end up underplays. Was hoping to see Lani on there. Maybe the next one after Dubai.