Most Morning Lines are just Wrong

[ebcorde]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

Not following your meaning, Al.....picking "after" the race. I can pick 10 out of 10 winners "after" the race---so I'm sure I'm not understanding. Explain?

I can pick 10 out of 10 winners "after" the race

[Capper Al]

The public isn't bad with their odds over 10,000 races. But not so in today's race.

[ebcorde]

The odds maker getting it wrong R2 at AQU the #7 was better than 20-1.

Was the classiest Horse in that 10k field, came in 2rd in his last race.

[Capper Al]

Here's probably where the confusion comes in. Capper's believe that they are on top of understanding a game that they are wrong in 2 out of 3 times. They do analysis and falsely conclude that a horse in a certain niche scenario will win one out of four times. Sounds mathematically certain doesn't it? How many times have you said something like early speed is going to fold as you watch the winner go wire to wire? We are in the dark as to today's scenario as much as we are in the dark about today's winner. And yes, I do analysis and create scenarios also. As handicappers we have no other way, but be aware of the dangers.

[RXB]

Whoever makes the morning line at Sam Houston clearly doesn't have a clue. They might as well let a monkey pick odds lines out of a hat.

6/1 on in the 2nd race today.

9/2 on entry in the 4th race.

And it's every day like this.

[RXB]

So the looked like the obvious and legitimate favourite by itself had it been decoupled, and the looked like the second best horse in the race. The wins easily and the finishes second. At 1/5 odds. And the Sam Houston ML for that entry was 9/2. That is the worst morning line I have ever seen. Ever. No doubt about it.

[Capper Al]

Originally Posted by RXB

So the looked like the obvious and legitimate favourite by itself had it been decoupled, and the looked like the second best horse in the race. The wins easily and the finishes second. At 1/5 odds. And the Sam Houston ML for that entry was 9/2. That is the worst morning line I have ever seen. Ever. No doubt about it.

That's bad.

[raybo]

Originally Posted by RXB

Whoever makes the morning line at Sam Houston clearly doesn't have a clue. They might as well let a monkey pick odds lines out of a hat.

6/1 on in the 2nd race today.

9/2 on entry in the 4th race.

And it's every day like this.

In the 2nd, I have the 2 ranked 3rd in "class" and 4th in my Power Form Velocities rating, and I have 2 horses with a running style/early speed points calculation of "E6" (the 2 and 5) and another horse with an "E3" (the 4), and another horse with an "E/P4" (the 1). Based on those running styles and possible pace battles, the 2 and 5 looked like they might hook up early and fade late. So, a 6/1 morning line didn't look completely out of line to me.

In the 4th race, the 1 ranked 2nd in "Class" with the 1A being ranked 1st, and in Power Form Velocities the 1 ranked 1st and the 1A ranked 3rd (coming off a 60 day layoff, in which the trainer does not do well). Based on that, the 1 at 9/2 appeared too high (although moving up from 6f to 7f with low late pace figures may have been a consideration for the M/L creator) and probably should have been the M/L favorite, but the 1A might have been a 9/2 odds horse. Danny Pish had the 5 so that probably carried some weight regarding its 7/2 M/L, but I fail to see where the 5/2 M/L came from on the 7.

I didn't play the card (Texas resident and can't bet Texas tracks) so I haven't done a full analysis of those 2 races, just posted some basics that may have contributed to the M/Ls.

[RXB]

I follow Sam Houston and the proof is in the pudding from both the final odds and the results that the morning line is frequently bonkers. (The ML maker is also the track announcer.)

[raybo]

Originally Posted by RXB

I follow Sam Houston and the proof is in the pudding from both the final odds and the results that the morning line is frequently bonkers. (The ML maker is also the track announcer.)

Maybe you should apply for the M/L job? Just time stamp your M/Ls at least a day before each race day, for about a year, and bring them to the interview. Should be a slam dunk.

[Dave Schwartz]

Maybe you should apply for the M/L job? Just time stamp your M/Ls at least a day before each race day, for about a year, and bring them to the interview. Should be a slam dunk.

Is it really only a day early? I thought it was more like 2 days?

Your point, of course, is without Past Performances, right?

[raybo]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

Is it really only a day early? I thought it was more like 2 days?

Your point, of course, is without Past Performances, right?

Yeah, it's probably at least 2 days prior, and yes, before the PPs and late scratches, current weather and surface conditions, etc.. But, I was giving him a bit of a break.

[RXB]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

Is it really only a day early? I thought it was more like 2 days?

Your point, of course, is without Past Performances, right?

I can see why people might wonder if he's making the ML without PP's, but that's not the case. I can already access PP's for next Monday's card at Sam Houston-- that's six days from now.

Today's 3rd race, an 1/9 Asmussen horse that totally and utterly outclassed the field, won by about 10 lengths which is pretty much how much faster it had ran in several races compared to the hopeless lot that it was facing today, and paid the absolute minimum $2.10 to win. It was the 3/1 second choice on the ML.

[Capper Al]

The biggest problem that I have with MLs is in the belief that the total card is understandable. We are lucky if we can pick the winner. It isn't science. It's gambling.

[Dave Schwartz]

I can see why people might wonder if he's making the ML without PP's, but that's not the case. I can already access PP's for next Monday's card at Sam Houston-- that's six days from now.

May I ask where you get PPs 6 days in advance?

Is this common access for line makers?