Today in SoCal

[ultracapper]

#7 Zip N Bayou $11.80W $4.40P


$26.80 & $10.00
Out
Out (show)
$0 & $8.00
Out
$10.60 & $4.80
$11.80 & $4.40

$28 bet
$76.40 return

[azeri98]

You are on a roll UC

[ultracapper]

azeri98 Thank you very much. I hope I'm right when I say I'm feeling a little groove coming on. They can stop on a dime though, as I'm sure you know.

[ultracapper]

5th at SA

#7 Miz Graycee

By the looks of her early career, she was expected to route on the turf. Her first turf run was better than it looks on paper. She has shown a knack to get rolling after she straightens for home and settles on a straight run to the wire, so the key for her is being as forwardly placed as possible. In this spot, she should be first flight without much expending of energy. She looks like she's grown in the year she took off, and has grown into her stride.

6/1 1MTP

[ultracapper]

The Carava straight took it to them. You definitely wanted to be forward in that race.

$26.80 & $10.00
Out
Out (show)
$0 & $8.00
Out
$10.60 & $4.80
$11.80 & $4.40
Out

$32 bet
$76.40 return

[ultracapper]

1st at SA

#1 Out Ofthe Ordinary

I normally would not only not post a horse like this, but definitely not bet a horse at this price. She is 2/1 with about 20 MTP and she may very well end up at 3/2 or 8/5, something like that. But I am because this is one of those angle plays that is real powerful for bankroll building, and every now and then, you can even get some serious business done when the connections are weak and the betting public ignores the horse for those reasons. But the angle here is one that is no secret to anybody, cutting back to the hill after a strong, forward trip route. This filly's form right now is the poster girl for this angle. She proved herself down the hill 8Oct15 by positioning herself in perfect striking distance in 21.4 and 44.2. As the first flight moved away from the trailers crossing the dirt, she was able to go with them, and then finish positively, picking up ground on the winner while the race went the final pole in 6.1. She then followed it up with TWO routes that scream cutback to the hill. Forwardly placed through the first 3/4 of a mile and then taking the lead at the 1/8th pole and finishing evenly to the wire.

She debuted on the turf, tipping the barn's intentions for her early career. She went to the hill in her 3rd start and showed Koriner what he had to be looking for. She's run two solid races routing on the turf. She wasn't stressed a great deal to run forward in those routes, and since her last race she put in the perfect work 24Jan for this race. She's picture perfect here for this race.

The rub is the price. Not much you can do with her in the W/P pools without exposing your bankroll unnecessarily to potential damage. You just can't make a lot of hay at 2/1, never mind 8/5. This is a horse race. The potential at anytime is for a horse at 8/1 to top the board, and you have to have the bullets when that happens. You can't risk them on something that won't add some real pop to your bankroll. You use bullets to kill, not to buy more bullets. I have a betting grid and a goal spreadsheet, and I have a schedule to follow with my bets, obviously taking price into consideration. Horses at this price I can use to move up a step or two on the staircase, but they won't get me to the next floor. I'm certainly not going to let a horse at this price let me fall down the elevator shaft. However, horses that show this form are regular winners at this trip, but there is no winner in horse racing that can overcome 2/1 on a regular basis.

The #5 and #2 in this race are interesting horses because they look like they may become win types in the near future. #2 particularly has a great back story developing on her form. I'm not real concerned about either today, but if I've read the #5 wrong, she could surprise, but I really think she is asking for more ground. I don't see how she is asking for a different surface. I think she will be expected to run well here, but I think the connections are really looking to stretch out, maybe as early as next race.

#1 Out Ofthe Ordinary

[ultracapper]

If I was trying to teach a lesson here, I would have been rooting for this horse to lose, because the real lesson about this race is that a horse race is a horse race, and there is nothing guaranteed. A perfect form Even money slam dunk just got beat handily, and the LAST THING you want to do in that case is hurt yourself financially. There just wasn't much to win, but if you would have had to pick a horse in that race, just one horse, it would have been #1. And you would have been right, maybe 3 or 4 times out of 10. But the times you're wrong won't make up for those times you're not, not in the way higher priced horses can clean up mistakes. I lost a few bucks, but it didn't even knock me off stride in the bigger picture. If she would have won, she would have given me a little more leverage on my next bet, but it wouldn't have even paid the utilities.

Surprised how flat she was at the top of the stretch. Quinonez really asked her also as they leveled out, and she just didn't answer. She was right where she needed to be, I watched the jock let out the reigns and shake her hard, and she just didn't answer. Who knows.

$26.80 & $10.00
Out
Out (show)
$0 & $8.00
Out
$10.60 & $4.80
$11.80 & $4.40
Out
Out

$36 bet
$76.40 return

[ultracapper]

3rd @ SA

#3 Makena would have destroyed that field in her last race is she could have stretched her legs at all between the 5/16 and 1/16 pole. This field may be a bit better than that one, depending on how well the FTS run, but Makena is a proven entity that will run a solid race if she doesn't encounter any poor "racing luck"

#3 Makena 5/2 2MTP

[ultracapper]

Makena $0W $3.60P

$26.80 & $10.00
Out
Out (show)
$0 & $8.00
Out
$10.60 & $4.80
$11.80 & $4.40
Out
Out
$0 & $3.60

$40 Bet
$80 Return

10 races
3 winner
2 place

[ultracapper]

8th @ SA

#4 Maid Easy

She's been off for over a year, and the race she was last in may have been what put her on the shelf. She was forward in a crowded pace, as they were entering the far turn, the horse to her outside came down to dive into the turn, cutting Maid Easy off a little, and Stra had to kind of slow her down a little. It looked as though she may have taken a funny step, though she ran on pretty well through the turn and the stretch.

This race, to me, is a dart toss. Maid Easy was bet down to 5/1 against state-bred MSW at LosAl in her debut. For the first 1/4 of that race, she looked the part. They've waited a long time to bring her back, and then it's right to the basement, but, if she's alright, this is where she'd probably be competitive at thjis time in her career.

#4 Maid Easy 5/1 8MTP

[ultracapper]

First 10 bets at Socal since opening of winter 2016 SA meet
10 races
3 winner
2 place

2nd 10 races this year in Socal.

Out



Total Bets and Returns for Socal since opening of winter 2016 SA meet

$44 Bet
$80 Return

[ultracapper]

3rd @ SA

#2 Cool Green

Wait, wait, over the top. Need a patient ride early from DVD, start moving at the 3/8 pole, and finish strong. FT blinkers, good move.

#2 Cool Green 7/2ML

[ultracapper]

Damn, key was waiting until the 1/4 pole. Flattened out just when he needed that last bit of steam. Bet down too much, even if he would have got there.

First 10 bets at Socal since opening of winter 2016 SA meet
10 races
3 winner
2 place

2nd 10 races this year in Socal.

Out
Out



Total Bets and Returns for Socal since opening of winter 2016 SA meet

$48 Bet
$80 Return

[ultracapper]

5th @ SA

#7 Seedsandstemsagain

I had no intention of playing today initially, but remembered this horse from last spring, and there was a point where I thought this horse was on the verge of getting a win down the hill. He looks to be primed for a good run here, and the field doesn't look overly frightening, so a play I will make today. This is the one. Should be forward, has solid foundation under him since the lay off, and comes out of a couple races that were much tougher than this. He wanted to run early in the 1 1/8 race he came out of, and the new jock should cut him loose early in here.

#7 Seedsandstemsagain 7/2 @ PT

[ultracapper]

$8.80W $4.00P

First 10 bets at Socal since opening of winter 2016 SA meet
10 races
3 winner
2 place

2nd 10 races this year in Socal.

Out
Out
$8.80 & $4.00



Total Bets and Returns for Socal since opening of winter 2016 SA meet

$52 Bet
$92.80 Return