Today in SoCal

[ultracapper]

1st at SA

If anybody can wire this race, it's #4 Mr. Count On Me. He's simply the fastest horse for 100 to 125 yards. Hopefully he uses the speed early and never looks back. Clear in the first 100 yards, relax, 22 flat, 45 flat and they'll never catch him. Heck of a workout Dec18.

[ultracapper]

$26.80W $10.00P

I think I'm gonna dance.

[iceknight]

Originally Posted by ultracapper

$26.80W $10.00P

I think I'm gonna dance.

This is a good call. too bad I did nt see it at all, nice one!

[judd]

Great call

[ultracapper]

Originally Posted by iceknight

This is a good call. too bad I did nt see it at all, nice one!

Thank you sir.

[ultracapper]

Originally Posted by judd

Great call

And Thank You also Mr. Judd.

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by ultracapper

1st at SA

If anybody can wire this race, it's #4 Mr. Count On Me. He's simply the fastest horse for 100 to 125 yards. Hopefully he uses the speed early and never looks back. Clear in the first 100 yards, relax, 22 flat, 45 flat and they'll never catch him. Heck of a workout Dec18.

You literally paced this out "manually"---excellent work uc. You took a leap of faith with the trainer, but definitely didn't luck into this one.

[ultracapper]

Thanks Silver and Black. Marsha Schwizer is a decent horsewoman. Her last 36 starters, all on the SoCal circuit, are 3-1-5. That's not bad for a small, lightly funded, hobby-type operation. Indicates that if she has the horse, she knows how to take care of it, and then it comes down to proper placement. Every indication going into this race showed she had handled the horse as well as anybody could have. I wasn't worried about the connections at all.

The ultimate pace setter broke from the gate much better. The jock on this horse rode him perfect. Gave the lead to the pace setter, took up a clear, untroubled second, relaxed to the 5/16ths pole, then asked for that 125 yard burst the horse showed in the replays of his previous races, and bang, 3 length lead at the 3/16ths pole. Perfect ride.

[whodoyoulike]

Originally Posted by ultracapper

1st at SA

If anybody can wire this race, it's #4 Mr. Count On Me. He's simply the fastest horse for 100 to 125 yards. Hopefully he uses the speed early and never looks back. Clear in the first 100 yards, relax, 22 flat, 45 flat and they'll never catch him. Heck of a workout Dec18.

Nice call for the race. And, nice pace calls. I take it you made a w/p wager based on your follow up post which were very nice payouts.

[ultracapper]

Originally Posted by whodoyoulike

Nice call for the race. And, nice pace calls. I take it you made a w/p wager based on your follow up post which were very nice payouts.

If I post something in this section, I bet it, and it'll always be a weighted W/P wager unless noted. No sense in posting it if you're not unless you're doing something like a number of these guys with services are doing. Like the guy from Nevada that grades a number of tracks a day. It's obvious what he's doing, and when his top pick comes in third he doesn't give himself a bunch of red numbers with payoffs and thumbs up and backslaps and insults and intimations about his greatness. He's a guy you'd listen to if he came out once in awhile and said "hey, this one looks particularly good." Right or wrong, you know he has integrity.

HAHA!! Maybe it's just me. It sure the hell wouldn't be the first time.

[whodoyoulike]

Originally Posted by ultracapper

If I post something in this section, I bet it, and it'll always be a weighted W/P wager unless noted. No sense in posting it if you're not unless you're doing something like a number of these guys with services are doing. Like the guy from Nevada that grades a number of tracks a day. It's obvious what he's doing, and when his top pick comes in third he doesn't give himself a bunch of red numbers with payoffs and thumbs up and backslaps and insults and intimations about his greatness. He's a guy you'd listen to if he came out once in awhile and said "hey, this one looks particularly good." Right or wrong, you know he has integrity.

HAHA!! Maybe it's just me. It sure the hell wouldn't be the first time.

I'm not understanding your response to my post. I wasn't certain you made a w/p wager which is the reason I asked. You were correct in your assessment of the pace (I thought it was spot on) and that your selection would never be caught and yet you also bet him to place. I wasn't criticizing you. If you had handicapped a scenario of a stretch duel or something similar, I can see you making and justifying a place bet.

Originally Posted by ultracapper

1st at SA

If anybody can wire this race, it's #4 Mr. Count On Me. He's simply the fastest horse for 100 to 125 yards. Hopefully he uses the speed early and never looks back. Clear in the first 100 yards, relax, 22 flat, 45 flat and they'll never catch him. Heck of a workout Dec18.

[whodoyoulike]

Another thing, I believe that you're the same who posted earlier this year another winner several days before the race and said you were going to make a $600 wager which went off at 3-1. Actually, this is when I started paying attention to your posts. If I recall correctly it was also a starter allowance race.

I usually avoid them so I appreciate your ability with these types of races.

[ultracapper]

Originally Posted by whodoyoulike

Another thing, I believe that you're the same who posted earlier this year another winner several days before the race and said you were going to make a $600 wager which went off at 3-1. Actually, this is when I started paying attention to your posts. If I recall correctly it was also a starter allowance race.

I usually avoid them so I appreciate your ability with these types of races.

I always bet W/P. Just my thing. I don't think I'm the one that posted the $600 wager. I'm pretty careful about not posting $. I don't see any advantage to it or any constructive purpose to it. There was an Ellis-trainee named Crux in a StAl that I discussed for a couple days here that went off at 6-1 and won. That may be the one you're thinking of and the 6-1 may have evolved into $600 because of the funny games that memory can play on all of us.

[whodoyoulike]

Originally Posted by ultracapper

I always bet W/P. Just my thing. I don't think I'm the one that posted the $600 wager. I'm pretty careful about not posting $. I don't see any advantage to it or any constructive purpose to it. There was an Ellis-trainee named Crux in a StAl that I discussed for a couple days here that went off at 6-1 and won. That may be the one you're thinking of and the 6-1 may have evolved into $600 because of the funny games that memory can play on all of us.

This was the race I was thinking about. I was incorrect in what happened price wise (went off at 6-1) but, it was when I first started noticing your posts. I have a problem to make sure my memory is not failing me so I had to check up on it which wasn't very difficult with the search function.

From a 10-28-2014 post .....

Originally Posted by ultracapper

Purely an example.

Crux is 6-1 morning line. Let's say he goes off at that. Purely an example remember. Let's say you have $300 on him and he wins. $1800. Is that worth a week's work? If that's all you did, all week, would it be worth it? It would to a lot of people on this board, and in the real world in general.

Purely an example. Same as above, but Crux loses. Patience, patience, patience. Sunday, another 6-1, and this one wins. $1500 profit for the week. Is it worth it for a week's work? To a lot of people on this board, and in the real world, sure is.

I'm sure there are lots of people on this board that start out with $600 a week. Everyone of them, if they are so disposed, can try to do it this way with no more exposure than they presently have.

Some people tick different than others. I wouldn't be as effective handicapping 80 races a week as I am 8 a week. Others would get so bored and bogged down the way I do it that they'd end up hating the game. You have to behave in a way that optimizes your effectiveness. Getting back to the initial comment that got this rolling. There are many reasons for inactivity. I initially felt like your statement that fear was the reason came across as the only reason for inactivity. I may have responded a bit strongly, but I don't think it should be a blanket statement, or even a general statement. I'm sure it's true for some, but it certainly isn't true for all.

Originally Posted by ultracapper

Totally replay action. In about 5 of his 7 races he had been passed by a horse at the top of the stretch only to re-pass that horse inside the 1/16th pole. He had all the look of a first flight/engine in this one and I felt if he was side by side at the 1/16th, he'd out finish the other horse. Without watching the replays, you never would have known his inclination to let a horse come to him and/or pass him, only to re-rally and outfinish him. If you would have asked me before the race what I would have thought his margin of victory would be, I would have confidently said a hard earned head.

I loved the comments below the pps in the form. The commentator questioned his stamina. Totally wrong. Entirely wrong. He'd lost his last 2 because he'd been outrun, not because he'd faded/stopped.

Thanks RR. You know where to find the gold. It's on the screen.

The horse won paying 14.40 7.40 4.00. And, it was also a starter allowance race.

[ultracapper]

I can see where your memory of things may have run together and come out with the idea I bet $600 on him. Those were numbers for example purposes. I remember the discussion we were having that brought up that first post you quoted.


Hey, thanks for reading. We all want to be part of the discussion. That's why we're here.