Elimination rules vs Pace figs

[Capper Al]

This poll reminds me of voting in Chicago or Florida. Vote early, vote often.

[ultracapper]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

"I find it interesting that both you and NoCalGreg question my betting. In fact, NoCalGreg doesn’t seem to recognize the difference between a posted selection and a play! My posted “selections” have never been announced as my wagers! How he arrived at that conclusion is beyond me! Perhaps the confusion is caused because I’m one of the few on the Selection forum who actually posts the results of my selections and what they potentially produce (Win or Lose !)"

This has to be the funniest line of your ridiculous post, Nitro. I know people like to go online and be something they aren't---in reality. You have chosen the role of big-time professional horse bettor, far superior to the silly regulars of this dump. Nothing to be ashamed of, it's common. I've seen others playing your role, that I'm surprised to find don't even have the financial smarts to have valid internet credit.

If you were or are, a winning horseplayer of the magnitude you claim...you would quietly go about your business, with little fanfare, not drawing much attention to yourself...and certainly not spending hours online on a forum such as this.
Does that describe you, Nitro? No? You come on here, typing in Giant Bold Ass letters, announcing every race...NEVER how much you bet, but ALWAYS how much the payoff was and on and on.

So Nitro....excuse me if I thought the numbers you put up IN BIG ASS BOLD TYPE was your selection.

BTW.....if you were going to sum up your nonsense with "go read a book on toteboard wagering" --save us all some time & just say that in the first place.

later
-NCG

They are his selections. They may not necessarily be his wagers.

I've followed along with Nitro some of those nights when the insomniac in me wins the battle, and he definitely has his moments. No idea what his handicapping method is because he just posts his selections with no commentary, but his method of betting is very apparent by the way he posts his selections. It's obvious he's approaching the race with a double key and secondary selections to complete vertical exotics.

[Pick 'em Charlie]

Elimination rules are handicapping. Everything else is stats. Generally, using just stats, gets one about 25% to 35% of the winners. But handicapping gets one the long shots. With little difference between figures over the long run for speed, class, etc -- I'd take elimination rules. One can use anyone's figs. These figs are available to the public. The know how is in the elimination rules.

[pandy]

I'm not a fan of elimination rules because there are a lot of horses that don't look good on paper for various reasons but are actually good bets because the odds are so high.

Several years ago on my Meadowlands harness selections (which are published free on ustrotting.com), I picked a longshot that was coming off a layoff. The horse did nothing. A gentleman emailed me and chastised me, saying, "Pandy, you should know better, in harness racing, you never bet horses coming off layoffs. I eliminate all layoff horses."

I explained to this guy that I don't believe in rules like that because even though the win percentage of harness horses coming off layoffs is low, there are situations when they can be a very good bet. (And I know three professional harness bettors I can think of who agree with me and bet horses off layoffs when the situation is right).

Just a few days later I picked, and bet, a horse at the Meadowlands that was coming off a similar layoff and it won and paid over $40. I made a nice score on it.

[Capper Al]

Pansy,

In your example, I would agree with you because you are using a single factor to eliminate. Had the trainer's win percentage been under 7% with returning horses from a layoff then I might consider eliminating him. Single factors don't make it in my R&D. And if in doubt, don't eliminate or demand a third factor.

[biggestal99]

Given the choice, ill take elimination rules

I have some favorite ones that i use

I would hate to give those up in favor of pace only.

Allan

[Capper Al]

Originally Posted by biggestal99

Given the choice, ill take elimination rules

I have some favorite ones that i use

I would hate to give those up in favor of pace only.

Allan

Thanks for your input. I agree with you. There's nothing like eliminating a favorite.

[Capper Al]

Originally Posted by Capper Al

Pansy,

In your example, I would agree with you because you are using a single factor to eliminate. Had the trainer's win percentage been under 7% with returning horses from a layoff then I might consider eliminating him. Single factors don't make it in my R&D. And if in doubt, don't eliminate or demand a third factor.

Sorry Pandy. I just caught the typo with your name.

[Capper Al]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

How many "eliminations" does this rule get you?

Like I have said, I do need to hit on more than one rule for a horse to eliminate them. In my research for an elimination rule to last, it minimally needs a success rate of 85% or better when combined with other elimination rules. Most of my rules are in the 90 to 95% range. A couple of them are at 98%, but these don't occur too frequently.

[Dark Horse]

Originally Posted by Capper Al

Fortunately no one has to choose between elimination rules and pace figs. Both have their place and are valuable tools in a handicapper's arsenal. But if one had to choose between the two, what would you choose? Remember now- you still have class, speed and connection data whichever way you choose. But in this case, any elimination rule cannot include pace. I would choose elimination rules.

Everything should be included; but that does require a streamlined program, because without computer power there is too much to remember, and not enough time to do indepth calculations. I have a toss-out feature that allows for auto-tosses as well as manual tosses, based on values in a trip projector (that itself includes a number of separate key values). Tossing out horses determines if you're looking at a positive or negative playing field. It's an extremely valuable skill. If you can trim down the field to three horses, for instance, there can be tremendous value on the table. For 10 bucks, or multiples thereof, you can then play: 1-2/1-2-3 with 1-2-3/1-2 with 1/2-3/2-3. An effective program should include overlays, so you could limit your bets to big overlays, producing very high payouts.

Pace is a separate issue. The pace is set up, but not set, by the most forwardly placed favorite (odds 2/1 or lower), who serves as the ‘weight’ for the field to gravitate towards. The pace is then set by the manner in which the speed horses, or in their absence stalkers, react to that most forwardly placed favorite. I verified this with my mentor, and he concurred. This theory correctly identifies three extreme pace scenarios, that will determine the outcome of a race. Other pace scenarios are not too important.

What are the extreme speed scenarios? Speed Duel, Solo Speed (walk the dog), and Severely Slowed. Everyone will be familiar with the speed duel. If a big favorite is among the speeds, there's much greater incentive to put pressure on him early. There's no point betting on him, but plenty of value is instantly created if he's tossed out; he'll often win the duel, but lose the war and finish off the board. A solo speed is exactly that, and the field will tend to let him go as long as he's a longshot, because they expect him to come back. When he doesn't, the value is already build in. Severely Slowed pace is created by speed horses that slow things down to a crawl, and can do so because the favorite is a closer. The stalkers have no interest in pressing the speeds, because the closer's chances are reduced significantly with a slow pace. The speed duel favors the closers, the solo speed favors the solo speed, and the severely slowed pace favors the speeds who can save all their energy. So when my program identifies one of these three, I have to go outside of the normal approach and make that the first consideration. Of course, the lesson was learned the hard way.

[Capper Al]

The vast majority of lessons are learned the hard way in this game.