Elimination rules vs Pace figs

[Capper Al]

One good thing about elimination rules is eliminating False Favorites and, therefore, making higher value horses more pronounced prior to wagering.

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by Capper Al

Fortunately no one has to choose between elimination rules and pace figs. Both have their place and are valuable tools in a handicapper's arsenal. But if one had to choose between the two, what would you choose? Remember now- you still have class, speed and connection data whichever way you choose. But in this case, any elimination rule cannot include pace. I would choose elimination rules.

Well Al I can certainly agree with your opening sentence, but beyond that I personally would consider the entirety of the so-called handicapper’s arsenal as pure fiction. I’ve been fortunate enough to not only come to ignore those factors, but ALL traditional handicapping methods altogether (Other then of course Money Management). I know most on this forum don’t want to hear it, because of the inordinate amount of time and effort they’ve put into this game by trying to scrutinize every aspect and angle imaginable. As a result, you can actually sense their frustrations from many of the posts here (and on other threads as well).

I’ve learned that it’s just a Game as has to be treated as such. I’ve also come to accept that you can’t consistently rationalize or forecast the results of events in this game by using an exact science like Math. In the end, it forces the typical handicapper into making many subjective assertions because there are just too many variables to consider; some of which are completely unknown to players at all levels. As I’ve mentioned before when you come to the realization that you’re an outsider playing an insider’s game, it actually clarifies many of its idiosyncrasies and perhaps even explains why the vast majority of players are losers. Yes, that’s a fact. In spite of countless years of indoctrination to using handicapping methods (both old & new) that obviously don’t produce the desired result: Profits!

I expect that some may want to dispute my comments, but I feel the proof is in the pudding. As evidence of my game I’ll post selections. Until I see others who make all kinds of claims do the same and get similar results, the credibility of their commentary in my mind remains questionable.
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[Maximillion]

Originally Posted by Nitro

As evidence of my game I’ll post selections.
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I would be interested in you giving us a sample of this....if in addition to your "selections" you tell us exactly how you are betting the races.

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by Nitro

I expect that some may want to dispute my comments, but I feel the proof is in the pudding. As evidence of my game I’ll post selections. Until I see others who make all kinds of claims do the same and get similar results, the credibility of their commentary in my mind remains questionable

Interesting you question anyone's credibility, Nitro. I have watched you...over and over, while you play HK, OZ, US tracks, announce your wagers such as

// okay so far

then you'll announce WINNER!!! $2 SUPERFECTA - - - $2,144 $2 TRI - - $560 EXACTA - $98

Maybe I'm ignorant, but playing the 3,9 over 2,4,8,11 doesn't win you any 11,2,9,3 superfecta--what am I missing Nitro? And how much would that $2 "BOX" have cost, if in fact that's what you did?

On the HTW thread, we sort of have a tradition of posting our ADW printout line for the particular monster hit such as this one:

COMPLETED:b134d-b7af1 PRX #3 $5 Win 2none$5.00$298.00+$293.00

No one is asking you to show your winning ADW line---I'm just wondering if you actually have any. Tell me what I'm missing, because just saying you won, without plainly announcing your exact play---means nothing. If you have an explanation, and turns out I truly am ignorant---my apologies.

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by Maximillion

I would be interested in you giving us a sample of this....if in addition to your "selections" you tell us exactly how you are betting the races.

I will offer a couple of my recent “Selection” threads for reference:
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...d.php?t=127727
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...d.php?t=127598

I find it interesting that both you and NoCalGreg question my betting. In fact, NoCalGreg doesn’t seem to recognize the difference between a posted selection and a play! My posted “selections” have never been announced as my wagers! How he arrived at that conclusion is beyond me! Perhaps the confusion is caused because I’m one of the few on the Selection forum who actually posts the results of my selections and what they potentially produce (Win or Lose !).

Unless I’m missing something, I was under the impression that this”Factor Elimination” thread was related to the selection process. After all, I think most would agree that no matter how you play the game, you can’t make a bet without first having one or more selections in mind. I also try to post my selections with ample time before the gate opens, so that anyone following along might be able to compare what I’m suggesting to their own ideas about the race.

But let’s not mince words! I’m going to call an ace an ace and say that there are those in the handicapping community who simply have varying levels of repulsion for the way players like me are able to “eliminate” the pretenders from the contenders. If you’re among those what can I say, except that we believe there’s a better means to reach a profitable end. I prefer to follow the money by using a sophisticated tote analysis to first and foremost determine which entries are viable for playability. These are what I post, but that doesn’t mean I make every possible bet that’s available or even play the race at all! So there’s no reason for an apology because I realize that sometimes there’s difficulty or even an unwillingness to assimilate certain concepts.

Most will agree that there are 2 sides to this game and personally I believe that the betting side is actually more significant. Why? Well because the selections made offer a specific value. If they don’t offer enough value then why take the risk of playing them? So from that perspective I will examine their immediate odds and determine if a play is worth the risk. I can’t say exactly what type of bet I’m going to make for each and every situation, but the idea is to try and make a profitable play no matter what type of bet it is.

You might have noticed from the Selection forum thread links (above) that the format for posting selections amounts to a very simple guideline: Determine the 2 most significant Key entries and use them if necessary with other preferences for any available exotic wagers. I may simply Dutch win bet the 2 Keys. But I do enjoy playing exotics and while it may seem expensive to those unfamiliar with the most effective ways of making an exotic wager with 1 or 2 Keys, I’m not going offer detailed instructions on how to structure every such wager.

I will say that with Hong Kong for instance that unfortunately there is no Super bet available right now through the stateside ADW’s. Without mentioning names, it’s apparent that some don’t even recognize the basic value of the Quinella bets there. I post 2 Keys and 4 others (from a 14 horse field) and immediately the uniformed are bewildered. In fact making such a bet is often very lucrative, especially when the 4 others show significant value. Keying 2 with 4 others amounts to just (9) $2 Quinella bets ($18 for those with math difficulties). Of course there’s nothing wrong with a $10 or $20 Quinellas either. So if you can determine that the value of your selections will produce a greater then a basic $18 return, then obviously there’s an excellent chance for profitability. I also like this bet because the likelihood of a “signer” is minimized. If the $2 Triple combinations are too rich for your blood then the $1 variety are also offered.

When I use Keys in Triple bets I may use the Keys as Win only, Win/Place only and sometimes even go 3 deep when there are significant odds available.
As a “Key Win only” there are only (40) combinations involved with 2 Keys on top. (1K w/5O x 4O = 20 combos x 2 Keys = 40 combos)
As a “Key Win/Place only” there are (80) combinations with 2 Keys in the top 2 spots, and if the Keys finish 1-2 the Triple is hit twice!

If this explanation is not satisfactory then I suggest reading a book on structuring exotic wagers when and only when there’s potential for a profitable return through the recognition of individual selection value.

BTW, in case anyone is interested, and perhaps silly enough to make $2 Quinella bets on ALL (10) races at HK Sunday morning without consideration for value and using my aforementioned format the return was $409 for $180 wagered. At Gulfstream a week ago Sat. I posted 8 races and again assuming all 8 were indiscriminately played as $2 Exacta boxes with the 2-Key format the return was $454.20 for $256 wagered. Statements like this may have little or no meaning to those who don’t understand what accountability or credibility means. I’ll leave it at that, but as far as I’m concerned if others who spew out all these handicapping techniques want to gain some credibility I think they ought to demonstrate their so-called handicapping prowess.
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[NorCalGreg]

"I find it interesting that both you and NoCalGreg question my betting. In fact, NoCalGreg doesn’t seem to recognize the difference between a posted selection and a play! My posted “selections” have never been announced as my wagers! How he arrived at that conclusion is beyond me! Perhaps the confusion is caused because I’m one of the few on the Selection forum who actually posts the results of my selections and what they potentially produce (Win or Lose !)"

This has to be the funniest line of your ridiculous post, Nitro. I know people like to go online and be something they aren't---in reality. You have chosen the role of big-time professional horse bettor, far superior to the silly regulars of this dump. Nothing to be ashamed of, it's common. I've seen others playing your role, that I'm surprised to find don't even have the financial smarts to have valid internet credit.

If you were or are, a winning horseplayer of the magnitude you claim...you would quietly go about your business, with little fanfare, not drawing much attention to yourself...and certainly not spending hours online on a forum such as this.
Does that describe you, Nitro? No? You come on here, typing in Giant Bold Ass letters, announcing every race...NEVER how much you bet, but ALWAYS how much the payoff was and on and on.

So Nitro....excuse me if I thought the numbers you put up IN BIG ASS BOLD TYPE was your selection.

BTW.....if you were going to sum up your nonsense with "go read a book on toteboard wagering" --save us all some time & just say that in the first place.

later
-NCG

[Capper Al]

handicapper’s arsenal as pure fiction

It's always how you play your arsenal, and how you bet it that counts. My way is to use relative factors and more than just one from my arsenal.

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by Capper Al

It's always how you play your arsenal, and how you bet it that counts. My way is to use relative factors and more than just one from my arsenal.

Hey Al you’re right about that. No matter how you choose to play the game a full arsenal of mental weaponry has to be used. Mine just happens to include something that’s generally considered outside the box of the typical handicapper.

And talking about "Mental", I also wanted to apologize for taking your thread a bit off topic by even bothering to respond to the previous posts. As you can see the trash talk abounds and is coming from an obviously indignant and arrogant SOB. Fortunately there’s an “Ignore” list here, so I won’t be duped into responding to any more track manure.

GL no matter how you attack it!
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[Capper Al]

Originally Posted by Nitro

Hey Al you’re right about that. No matter how you choose to play the game a full arsenal of mental weaponry has to be used. Mine just happens to include something that’s generally considered outside the box of the typical handicapper.

And talking about "Mental", I also wanted to apologize for taking your thread a bit off topic by even bothering to respond to the previous posts. As you can see the trash talk abounds and is coming from an obviously indignant and arrogant SOB. Fortunately there’s an “Ignore” list here, so I won’t be duped into responding to any more track manure.

GL no matter how you attack it!
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You stayed on the topic. That mental magic is what both Pittsburgh Phil and Andy Beyer both have talked about. It's being in the zone and seeing the wagers. It's amazing. the same data day in and day out, and on some days we can sparkle and others days we flop.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Capper Al

You stayed on the topic. That mental magic is what both Pittsburgh Phil and Andy Beyer both have talked about. It's being in the zone and seeing the wagers. It's amazing. the same data day in and day out, and on some days we can sparkle and others days we flop.

It's called VARIANCE, Al...and there is nothing "amazing" about it. They call it "gambling", for a reason.

[Capper Al]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

It's called VARIANCE, Al...and there is nothing "amazing" about it. They call it "gambling", for a reason.

That's right! Hopefully, when we sparkle we get odds.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

"I find it interesting that both you and NoCalGreg question my betting. In fact, NoCalGreg doesn’t seem to recognize the difference between a posted selection and a play! My posted “selections” have never been announced as my wagers! How he arrived at that conclusion is beyond me! Perhaps the confusion is caused because I’m one of the few on the Selection forum who actually posts the results of my selections and what they potentially produce (Win or Lose !)"

This has to be the funniest line of your ridiculous post, Nitro. I know people like to go online and be something they aren't---in reality. You have chosen the role of big-time professional horse bettor, far superior to the silly regulars of this dump. Nothing to be ashamed of, it's common. I've seen others playing your role, that I'm surprised to find don't even have the financial smarts to have valid internet credit.

If you were or are, a winning horseplayer of the magnitude you claim...you would quietly go about your business, with little fanfare, not drawing much attention to yourself...and certainly not spending hours online on a forum such as this.
Does that describe you, Nitro? No? You come on here, typing in Giant Bold Ass letters, announcing every race...NEVER how much you bet, but ALWAYS how much the payoff was and on and on.

So Nitro....excuse me if I thought the numbers you put up IN BIG ASS BOLD TYPE was your selection.

BTW.....if you were going to sum up your nonsense with "go read a book on toteboard wagering" --save us all some time & just say that in the first place.

later
-NCG

This was quite an unwarranted reply considering what Nitro wrote. Don't bother arguing this point with me.

[mrroyboy]

I do post my selections in the harness forum. No tricks or ulterior motives. Just hope some people will make some money with them.

[Capper Al]

Mystery voters without comments?

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by Capper Al

Mystery voters without comments?

I was the "mystery voter" Al...I commented earlier w/out voting so, was just completing the process.