Elimination rules vs Pace figs

[jasperson]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

What sort of "elimination rules"? Stuff like..."throw out any horse that hasn't raced in 30 days"...or, "eliminate any horse that hasn't finished at least in the money in its last three races"?

My race track crony has a list of 18. He download every track that is running and gets about 3 or 4 bets a day.
They include
no turf
no 2yr
no 5f or 5.5f
no 7f
no off tracks
no long lay offs
no early pace
no first time front bandages
And the list goes on.
He then handicaps what is left.

[Capper Al]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

I don't even know why the elimination rules are still around. They are a relic from a different, less sophisticated age. In the pencil-and-paper age...it made sense to lighten the handicapping workload by eliminating certain horses at the very start of the handicapping process. Exotics betting was a rarity then...and no real harm could be done by excluding the worst horses in the race from the very beginning.

But now the horseplayer is using advanced tools...and handicapping is no longer a time-consuming chore. Winning horseplayers have testified that they can handicap races effectively in mere SECONDS. And the exotics have evolved to a point where even the 4th-place finisher of a race has become a serious handicapping concern. What purpose do the elimination rules serve in today's "computer age"?

Handicapping is not an exact science. Numbers generated are estimations of reality and all mixed up with confounded elements within themselves and are not to be thought of as a formula of answers. Most have lost this insight in the computer age. The P&P handicapper had to deal with inaccuracy right up front. The computer handicapper mistakenly thinks it's a game of better numbers and, therefore, is blinded to the art of handicapping. Actually, in the end, elimination rules are handicapping and the generated numbers are only for separating contenders.

[Capper Al]

Here's an excellent essay on elimination rules:

Netcapper Elimination Rules (link)

[Sinner369]

Originally Posted by cj

In my opinion, elimination rules don't work. All they do is exclude potential winners. With rare exception, every horse has some chance to win. It is just a matter of if they offer value or not.

Any veteran handicapper knows that there are no such things as "hard and fast rules" when it comes to handicapping........they are just guidelines to help one reduce the number of horses.........there are always exceptions to the rule.

I was interested in seeing some new "rules" that I have not seen before but I guess Al was (is) not interested in sharing his "rules" (but he was the one who raised the question in the first place).

[Capper Al]

Originally Posted by Sinner369

Any veteran handicapper knows that there are no such things as "hard and fast rules" when it comes to handicapping........they are just guidelines to help one reduce the number of horses.........there are always exceptions to the rule.

I was interested in seeing some new "rules" that I have not seen before but I guess Al was (is) not interested in sharing his "rules" (but he was the one who raised the question in the first place).

Did you read post #18?

Netcapper Elimination Rules (link)

[Sinner369]

Originally Posted by Capper Al

Did you read post #18?

Netcapper Elimination Rules (link)

Al are you Netcapper?...........I said I was interested in "YOUR RULES" since you raised the question.

And yes I have seen Netcapper's rules before. I have a whole set of "rules" myself but they are for the harness horses only.

[PICSIX]

Eliminate a horse that goes from juicer to non-juicer if not running back before the juice wears off

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

In my opinion the only elimination rule of merit is to eliminate wagering on undervalued horses in the win pool...it is like getting your pocket picked in broad daylight!! ha ha

[Sinner369]

Originally Posted by jasperson

My race track crony has a list of 18. He download every track that is running and gets about 3 or 4 bets a day.
They include
no turf
no 2yr
no 5f or 5.5f
no 7f
no off tracks
no long lay offs
no early pace
no first time front bandages
And the list goes on.
He then handicaps what is left.

jasperson....Can you list the other ten or so "rules" that your friend has .....the ones you listed are good but most I have seen before........I am interested in seeing ones that are new to me.

Thanks in advance!

[classhandicapper]

Technically, I don't use elimination rules. But I do have categories of horses that I know lose significantly more than the track take as a group. I rarely bet one of them.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by PICSIX

Eliminate a horse that goes from juicer to non-juicer if not running back before the juice wears off

That's a pretty good one.

I've never studied it, but it's an insight I incorporated into my own thinking based on observation and intuition. Naturally, I don't like a huge negative trainer change. But I have seen enough examples of horses that came back very quickly off the change that ran well for one race and then fell apart next out to be aware of it.

[dasch]

I voted elimination rules but misunderstood what that implies. I thought I was voting on what would more accurately be described as elimination FACTORS. I don't EVER just throw a horse for any particular "rule". Heck, I would play a 12 year old off a 5 year layoff if the horse was with a decent trainer who did well with very long layoffs and the horse was training well.

I didn't see a way to change my vote as pace will always be more important to me than any rule.

[Capper Al]

Using days since last raced in certain combinations still works in contrast to its being touted as not working anymore.

[whodoyoulike]

Originally Posted by dasch

... I don't EVER just throw a horse for any particular "rule". Heck, I would play a 12 year old off a 5 year layoff if the horse was with a decent trainer who did well with very long layoffs and the horse was training well.

I didn't see a way to change my vote as pace will always be more important to me than any rule.

You would???

Btw, I think I know what you're getting at.

But, just in case I'm wrong which tracks do you wager at?

[DRIVEWAY]

Originally Posted by Capper Al

Using days since last raced in certain combinations still works in contrast to its being touted as not working anymore.

An activity indicator which includes DSLR, Workouts and DSLR for race two/three back, will help identify horses in condition/contention. The greater the number of activities within 30/45/60 days versus the competition, the stronger a horse will contend. Splash a little value on top and you'll be resurrecting DSLR.