|
View Poll Results: If you could only use one, which one would you choose?
|
|
Elimination rules(not to include pace)
|
   
|
24 |
47.06% |
|
Pace
|
  
|
27 |
52.94% |
 |
|
12-08-2015, 10:18 AM
|
#1
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: MI
Posts: 6,330
|
Elimination rules vs Pace figs
Fortunately no one has to choose between elimination rules and pace figs. Both have their place and are valuable tools in a handicapper's arsenal. But if one had to choose between the two, what would you choose? Remember now- you still have class, speed and connection data whichever way you choose. But in this case, any elimination rule cannot include pace. I would choose elimination rules.
__________________
"The Law, in its majestic equality, forbids the rich, as well as the poor, to sleep under bridges, to beg in the streets, and to steal bread."
Anatole France
Last edited by Capper Al; 12-08-2015 at 10:23 AM.
|
|
|
|
12-08-2015, 12:47 PM
|
#2
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2007
Posts: 1,915
|
I choose elimination rules too.
|
|
|
|
|
12-08-2015, 01:02 PM
|
#3
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,548
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Capper Al
Fortunately no one has to choose between elimination rules and pace figs. Both have their place and are valuable tools in a handicapper's arsenal. But if one had to choose between the two, what would you choose? Remember now- you still have class, speed and connection data whichever way you choose. But in this case, any elimination rule cannot include pace. I would choose elimination rules.
|
Elimination rules are totally USELESS to me...and I laugh whenever I see these simplistic rules compared with the pace figures in terms of "handicapping effectiveness". The proper use of pace figures can negate the need for "elimination rules"...but the use of elimination rules can never replace the need for accurate pace figures...especially in sprints.
For many years, I have been reading that the handicapper should use "pace handicapping" on only the "contenders" of today's race...for fear that rating the NON-CONTENDERS may lead to a distorted pace picture of the race. It's been more than 30 years...and I still don't know what that means.
__________________
Live to play another day.
|
|
|
|
|
12-08-2015, 01:12 PM
|
#4
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Canada
Posts: 539
|
Al can you..............???
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Capper Al
Fortunately no one has to choose between elimination rules and pace figs. Both have their place and are valuable tools in a handicapper's arsenal. But if one had to choose between the two, what would you choose? Remember now- you still have class, speed and connection data whichever way you choose. But in this case, any elimination rule cannot include pace. I would choose elimination rules.
|
Al can you gave examples of elimination rules so as to clarify what exactly do you mean?
__________________
Lotteries & Horse Racing....Difference between a Mindless Gamble & an Intellectual Pursuit!
|
|
|
|
|
12-08-2015, 01:16 PM
|
#5
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: MI
Posts: 6,330
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Sinner369
Al can you gave examples of elimination rules so as to clarify what exactly do you mean?
|
Without giving away the farm, something like hasn't raced in over 180 days.
__________________
"The Law, in its majestic equality, forbids the rich, as well as the poor, to sleep under bridges, to beg in the streets, and to steal bread."
Anatole France
|
|
|
|
|
12-08-2015, 01:21 PM
|
#6
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: MI
Posts: 6,330
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by thaskalos
Elimination rules are totally USELESS to me...and I laugh whenever I see these simplistic rules compared with the pace figures in terms of "handicapping effectiveness". The proper use of pace figures can negate the need for "elimination rules"...but the use of elimination rules can never replace the need for accurate pace figures...especially in sprints.
For many years, I have been reading that the handicapper should use "pace handicapping" on only the "contenders" of today's race...for fear that rating the NON-CONTENDERS may lead to a distorted pace picture of the race. It's been more than 30 years...and I still don't know what that means.
|
This is an interesting observation after I made a thread about my 13 weekend winning streak using only pace figures. But I still stand with elimination rules and go with narrow down the contenders first. Eliminations worked better over the long run.
__________________
"The Law, in its majestic equality, forbids the rich, as well as the poor, to sleep under bridges, to beg in the streets, and to steal bread."
Anatole France
|
|
|
|
|
12-08-2015, 01:23 PM
|
#7
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,548
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Capper Al
This is an interesting observation after I made a thread about my 13 weekend winning streak using only pace figures. But I still stand with elimination rules and go with narrow down the contenders first. Eliminations worked better over the long run.
|
What sort of "elimination rules"? Stuff like..."throw out any horse that hasn't raced in 30 days"...or, "eliminate any horse that hasn't finished at least in the money in its last three races"?
__________________
Live to play another day.
|
|
|
|
|
12-08-2015, 01:24 PM
|
#8
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,548
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Capper Al
Without giving away the farm, something like hasn't raced in over 180 days.
|
How many "eliminations" does this rule get you?
__________________
Live to play another day.
|
|
|
|
|
12-08-2015, 01:28 PM
|
#9
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: MI
Posts: 6,330
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by thaskalos
How many "eliminations" does this rule get you?
|
I'm not qualifying on how one uses elimination rules or uses pace. I'm just asking what is more important in their handicapping.
__________________
"The Law, in its majestic equality, forbids the rich, as well as the poor, to sleep under bridges, to beg in the streets, and to steal bread."
Anatole France
|
|
|
|
|
12-08-2015, 01:30 PM
|
#10
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,548
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Capper Al
I'm not qualifying on how one uses elimination rules or uses pace. I'm just asking what is more important in their handicapping.
|
Al...do you think that the elimination rules and the pace figures perform the same handicapping function? Why did you pick the PACE figures to compare with the elimination rules in this thread?
__________________
Live to play another day.
|
|
|
|
|
12-08-2015, 01:42 PM
|
#11
|
|
@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,828
|
In my opinion, elimination rules don't work. All they do is exclude potential winners. With rare exception, every horse has some chance to win. It is just a matter of if they offer value or not.
|
|
|
|
|
12-08-2015, 01:45 PM
|
#12
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: Winnipeg
Posts: 1,114
|
Any ML above 20/1 (even 15/1 really, can tell within 10 seconds if I skip the 15/1) has resulted in quick eliminations without ever regretting it.
|
|
|
|
|
12-08-2015, 01:54 PM
|
#13
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,548
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by cj
In my opinion, elimination rules don't work. All they do is exclude potential winners. With rare exception, every horse has some chance to win. It is just a matter of if they offer value or not.
|
I don't even know why the elimination rules are still around. They are a relic from a different, less sophisticated age. In the pencil-and-paper age...it made sense to lighten the handicapping workload by eliminating certain horses at the very start of the handicapping process. Exotics betting was a rarity then...and no real harm could be done by excluding the worst horses in the race from the very beginning.
But now the horseplayer is using advanced tools...and handicapping is no longer a time-consuming chore. Winning horseplayers have testified that they can handicap races effectively in mere SECONDS. And the exotics have evolved to a point where even the 4th-place finisher of a race has become a serious handicapping concern. What purpose do the elimination rules serve in today's "computer age"?
__________________
Live to play another day.
|
|
|
|
|
12-08-2015, 04:10 PM
|
#14
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: MI
Posts: 6,330
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by thaskalos
Al...do you think that the elimination rules and the pace figures perform the same handicapping function? Why did you pick the PACE figures to compare with the elimination rules in this thread?
|
Just happens to be where I'm at in my coding.
__________________
"The Law, in its majestic equality, forbids the rich, as well as the poor, to sleep under bridges, to beg in the streets, and to steal bread."
Anatole France
|
|
|
|
|
12-08-2015, 04:12 PM
|
#15
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: MI
Posts: 6,330
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by cj
In my opinion, elimination rules don't work. All they do is exclude potential winners. With rare exception, every horse has some chance to win. It is just a matter of if they offer value or not.
|
I demand two hits or more to make a horse not to win(NTW). I found using any one rule doesn't work.
__________________
"The Law, in its majestic equality, forbids the rich, as well as the poor, to sleep under bridges, to beg in the streets, and to steal bread."
Anatole France
|
|
|
|
|
|
Posting Rules
|
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts
HTML code is Off
|
|
|
|
|
