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11-24-2015, 02:14 PM
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#1
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2014
Posts: 224
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KY Derby Future Wager Thoughts
Nyquist is 10-1 in the ML, Uncle Mo his is 20-1 in the sire ML. Seems like you get Nyquist and others at a better price with Uncle Mo. Why would you be Nyquist at all????
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11-24-2015, 02:47 PM
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#2
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2014
Posts: 4,520
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Bigadam119
Nyquist is 10-1 in the ML, Uncle Mo his is 20-1 in the sire ML. Seems like you get Nyquist and others at a better price with Uncle Mo. Why would you be Nyquist at all????
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Uncle Mo will go off shorter than Nyquist, its guaranteed.
Allan
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11-24-2015, 06:16 PM
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#3
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 4,284
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STICKSTATELYDUDE
__________________
"Just because she's a hitter and a thief doesn't mean she's not a good woman in all the other places" Mayrose Prizzi
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11-24-2015, 08:50 PM
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#4
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2010
Posts: 1,458
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I'm betting the green monkey
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11-26-2015, 02:45 PM
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#5
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Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 25,607
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The field in the sire portion is a horrendous bet, people don't understand that it's not the same as the horses field, there's no proof you'll even get ONE horse in the gate.
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11-26-2015, 03:33 PM
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#6
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Out-of-town Jasper
Join Date: Nov 2009
Posts: 2,364
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I think they are both horrendous bets. This far out, I'm not sure any horse is an overlay at less than 100/1.
__________________
“If you want to outwit the devil, it is extremely important that you don't give him advanced notice."
~Alan Watts
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11-26-2015, 04:56 PM
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#7
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broken-down horseplayer
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: Portland, OR area
Posts: 2,090
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Stillriledup
The field in the sire portion is a horrendous bet, people don't understand that it's not the same as the horses field, there's no proof you'll even get ONE horse in the gate.
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That's a good point. It's almost the reverse of the "field" wager on the individual horses, where the odds of getting a contender from an unlisted sire certainly don't reflect the chances of a late developing individual horse winning the Derby. However, since it's a new wager, I think it's worth considering if there is any value in it.
The OP brings up a great point - if you're going to see value in an individual horse, it would obviously make sense to bet the sire instead if the odds are higher. Currently, Nightquist is 8-1, Uncle Mo is now 11-1.
__________________
Playing SRU Downs - home of the "no sweat" inquiries...
Defying the "laws" of statistics with every wager.
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11-26-2015, 05:13 PM
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#8
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Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 25,607
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Hoofless_Wonder
That's a good point. It's almost the reverse of the "field" wager on the individual horses, where the odds of getting a contender from an unlisted sire certainly don't reflect the chances of a late developing individual horse winning the Derby. However, since it's a new wager, I think it's worth considering if there is any value in it.
The OP brings up a great point - if you're going to see value in an individual horse, it would obviously make sense to bet the sire instead if the odds are higher. Currently, Nightquist is 8-1, Uncle Mo is now 11-1.
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I think people are so used to betting the field that they're not thinking that the games top sires are all taken. If you hit the field in the sire portion you deserve 50-1 or more.
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11-26-2015, 07:06 PM
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#9
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Boston+Ocala
Posts: 23,759
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the futures bets put out by Churchill are all parimutuel.
does anyone know what happens to the money that got bet on dead horses that don't make it to the race?
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11-26-2015, 11:37 PM
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#10
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2009
Posts: 188
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You answered your own question regarding those who don't make it. This is a pari-mutuel pool.
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11-27-2015, 12:08 AM
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#11
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 22,647
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by egreen
You answered your own question regarding those who don't make it. This is a pari-mutuel pool.
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yes, but in most parimutual pools, late scratches are refunds. These 'future pools' are closed once betting closes.
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11-27-2015, 12:14 PM
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#12
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Out-of-town Jasper
Join Date: Nov 2009
Posts: 2,364
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by lamboguy
the futures bets put out by Churchill are all parimutuel.
does anyone know what happens to the money that got bet on dead horses that don't make it to the race?
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The same thing that happens to the money bet on the horses that race but don't win. In a normal race, when there is a late scratch, the price of all the other horses declines to reflect the money leaving the pool, but in the futures pool there is no refund so the prices stay the same.
__________________
“If you want to outwit the devil, it is extremely important that you don't give him advanced notice."
~Alan Watts
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11-27-2015, 07:00 PM
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#13
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2014
Posts: 224
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Does Pioneerof the Nile have anything that looks like it could be remotely close to the derby next year? He's currently 12-1 in the future wager.
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