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11-07-2015, 06:43 PM
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#46
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Veteran
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 3,428
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by pandy
Ernie got a lot of these plays from horses adding mud caulks, and in New York they banned mud caulks years ago.
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Wasn't aware of them banned but, are they banned everywhere?
My point was this angle should otherwise still be good since it's not a well known factor.
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11-08-2015, 02:46 PM
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#47
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 1,506
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?
Quote:
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Originally Posted by pandy
Ernie got a lot of these plays from horses adding mud caulks, and in New York they banned mud caulks years ago.
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Yes. But the point I was making by citing Ernie, was that a shoe change
is a very plausible explanation (imho the most plausible) of why this horse might have won this race, as you said in the post I quoted.
BTW, interesting thread from a couple of years ago which you may remember, in which Ernie discusses the banning of traction shoes and turndowns in NY.
http://216.92.33.211/forum/showthrea...3&page=1&pp=15
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11-08-2015, 03:02 PM
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#48
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 1,506
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by whodoyoulike
Wasn't aware of them banned but, are they banned everywhere?
My point was this angle should otherwise still be good since it's not a well known factor.
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It should still be good. I get the sense from what Ernie said in the thread in the PA link in my previous post, that little or no shoe information is the norm rather than the exception. And contrary to what I said earlier, it seems that the NY circuit still publishes only limited information. Would be interesting to see some stats on shoe changes by someone who plays this angle and has detailed information.
As pondman has posted many times, niche play can be very profitable. It certainly seems like less fun for the average recreational handicapper, but this is true of any kind of play where the primary intent is profit.
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11-08-2015, 05:05 PM
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#49
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Veteran
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 3,428
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Thanks for providing the older link. I don't recall seeing it the first time around.
And, another thank you to both DSB and Mr. Dahlman for their insights on the value of just shoe changes. Too bad neither of them have posted in quite awhile since I'd like to ask some additional questions esp., Mr. Dahlman (not handicapping related). He's an interesting handicapping personality at least to me.
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11-08-2015, 09:20 PM
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#50
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 1,506
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No prob
Quote:
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Originally Posted by whodoyoulike
Thanks for providing the older link. I don't recall seeing it the first time around.
And, another thank you to both DSB and Mr. Dahlman for their insights on the value of just shoe changes. Too bad neither of them have posted in quite awhile since I'd like to ask some additional questions esp., Mr. Dahlman (not handicapping related). He's an interesting handicapping personality at least to me.
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After all this re shoes, I really think the best way to have approached this race might have been to just follow TLG - an outstanding public handicapper. The guy who did cashed.
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11-09-2015, 06:28 AM
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#51
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2010
Posts: 5,005
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by lansdale
After all this re shoes, I really think the best way to have approached this race might have been to just follow TLG - an outstanding public handicapper. The guy who did cashed.
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11-09-2015, 10:50 AM
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#52
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,828
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I always get a kick out of people that pick apart longshots and why they were bad bets. Um...they are longshots for a reason. There isn't much going for them on paper or they wouldn't be longshots.
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11-09-2015, 10:59 AM
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#53
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,887
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Agree.
the whole purpose of what I was doing is looking at races without relying on pace of speed figures, just looking for non-number things that might point out horses speed and pace won't.
We had a guy at HTR years ago, Carl, who posted here, too, that like to find spot plays and always put in a step to make the horse look bad. Ugly horses pay more.
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
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11-09-2015, 11:13 AM
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#54
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: Norfolk VA
Posts: 6,246
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Quote:
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Ernie got a lot of these plays from horses adding mud caulks, and in New York they banned mud caulks years ago.
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As I recall, Bobby Frankel was one trainer that used mud caulks or turn downs on horses he recently claimed - and with much success.
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11-09-2015, 11:58 AM
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#55
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Veteran
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: NEW YORK CITY
Posts: 3,670
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Did anyone mention "track bias" ?
Opening day at track...Would you know how it plays?
Of course not.....watch a few races, see that horses no more than running 3rd and no more than 2 lengths behind are winning....
Now you have an idea that speed is better ....the favorite closer is now a vulnerable play....the longshot is one of the better early horses in this terrible field (NW 2 lifetime)..
Would you now say he has a chance?
Mike
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11-09-2015, 12:06 PM
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#56
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,569
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by mikesal57
Did anyone mention "track bias" ?
Opening day at track...Would you know how it plays?
Of course not.....watch a few races, see that horses no more than running 3rd and no more than 2 lengths behind are winning....
Now you have an idea that speed is better ....the favorite closer is now a vulnerable play....the longshot is one of the better early horses in this terrible field (NW 2 lifetime)..
Would you now say he has a chance?
Mike
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IMO...the biggest joke at the track is the guy who struts in after the third race, walks up to the TV where others are watching the replay...and asks in a conspiratorial tone: "Is speed any good?"
__________________
"Theory is knowledge that doesn't work. Practice is when everything works and you don't know why."
-- Hermann Hesse
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11-09-2015, 12:18 PM
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#57
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Veteran
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: NEW YORK CITY
Posts: 3,670
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by thaskalos
IMO...the biggest joke at the track is the guy who struts in after the third race, walks up to the TV where others are watching the replay...and asks in a conspiratorial tone: "Is speed any good?"
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yes , it is a joke if they are watching replays of Churchill Downs not Aqu.... 
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11-09-2015, 12:29 PM
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#58
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,569
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by mikesal57
yes , it is a joke if they are watching replays of Churchill Downs not Aqu.... |
You don't need to watch the replays at Aqueduct. With the six horses in the field...you can see all there is to see while the race is running live.
__________________
"Theory is knowledge that doesn't work. Practice is when everything works and you don't know why."
-- Hermann Hesse
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11-09-2015, 04:43 PM
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#59
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Veteran
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 3,428
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by delayjf
As I recall, Bobby Frankel was one trainer that used mud caulks or turn downs on horses he recently claimed - and with much success.
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How do you find this type of info before a race?
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11-09-2015, 04:58 PM
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#60
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,828
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by thaskalos
IMO...the biggest joke at the track is the guy who struts in after the third race, walks up to the TV where others are watching the replay...and asks in a conspiratorial tone: "Is speed any good?"
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I love this info. As soon as a bias is pronounced just bet the closers. I don't frequent OTBs much at all any more, but Twitter is like the online OTB.
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