Breeders Cup 2015-PA Version of the Legendary Trips and Traps

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by Saratoga_Mike

Welcome back. Post some BC picks once PPs are out.

Thanks Saratoga Mike...

Yes, I'll be sure to post the losers of the day so you have more horses to throw out !!!

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by Lemon Drop Husker

The Effinex line was a bit tongue in cheek to be honest.

I know Tonalist is better than Effinex.

My biggest problem with Tonalist is that in big fields, in big races, there always seems to be excuses as to why he doesn't win.

Take away his Belmont Stakes win (which the field looks to be pretty suspect now when one looks at it), and he consistently comes up short against his best rivals, and even some of his supposed lessers.

I hear you pal. However, he's never really let me down.

BCC 2014, joke of a race and pace. Boat race on a speed track. Was the only horse to move in the BCC of 2014 and was rallying real well into no flow against the grain.

JV massacred him 3x this year. JV let the connections down, Tonalist let no one down.

Could happen again (JV screwing up) in the 2015 BCC too. Ya never know.

I wish Rosario was riding Tonalist. It's a shame he is not.

[PaceAdvantage]

Welcome back EMD...and to those who might think I'm being sarcastic, I assure you I am not...

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Originally Posted by EMD4ME

I hear you pal. However, he's never really let me down.

BCC 2014, joke of a race and pace. Boat race on a speed track. Was the only horse to move in the BCC of 2014 and was rallying real well into no flow against the grain.

JV massacred him 3x this year. JV let the connections down, Tonalist let no one down.

Could happen again (JV screwing up) in the 2015 BCC too. Ya never know.

I wish Rosario was riding Tonalist. It's a shame he is not.

One thing that you cannot deny on Tonalist, that guy shows up to run every time out and puts in a solid effort.

Not gonna get into the whole JV thing with you, but yes, a change of Jock probably wouldn't hurt.

Tonalist really "fits" with how Keeneland is playing right now. A big time stalker that just needs the right trip. He will be on a lot of my tickets if he gets to the gate.

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Welcome back EMD...and to those who might think I'm being sarcastic, I assure you I am not...

Thanks PA! I'l try and keep the complaints down to a minimum

[Bigadam119]

Originally Posted by EMD4ME

I hear you pal. However, he's never really let me down.

BCC 2014, joke of a race and pace. Boat race on a speed track. Was the only horse to move in the BCC of 2014 and was rallying real well into no flow against the grain.

JV massacred him 3x this year. JV let the connections down, Tonalist let no one down.

Could happen again (JV screwing up) in the 2015 BCC too. Ya never know.

I wish Rosario was riding Tonalist. It's a shame he is not.

Why did they take Rosario off him in the first place?

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by Bigadam119

Why did they take Rosario off him in the first place?

Baffles my brain.................

[Stillriledup]

Originally Posted by EMD4ME

Baffles my brain.................

It's just possible Joel had a conflict and when they got johnny he said he would commit to the horse, either that or they're just listing JV and he's not picking against.

Lets look back to the first race w JV to see if JR had a mount in that race.

[CosmicWon]

I'm glad you're doing this. Sometimes a have a great feel on one race but no grasp on another.

HUGE Tonalist fan here and have always felt HC was a but overrated. I get so much grief for my Honor Code stance but whatevs, I know I'm correct

That said I'm not so fond of Clement still screwing around with the blinkers and wraps AGAIN. Wasn't aware until recently my Tony Toni Tonelist has really fragile fee and he trains in bar shoes. I'll be watching his feet to make sure he's not feeling ouchy.

My BCC lineup as of today is: AP, Beholder, Tonalist. Key around with the and Effinex and Coach Inge. Because I think she's tops, her are some photos of Beholder ,

I have some really great insight for the F&M Sprint if anyone wants to share later. Thanks for the handicapping nugggets!

[thespaah]

Originally Posted by EMD4ME

Alright PA members. Had a crazy idea AND I DON'T WANT TO PLAGARIZE TLG'S AWESOME show, Trips and Traps but I guess in a way I am. I want, with your participation, to select races to review and for PA members to give their opinions on who had a dressed up "trap" of a trip and who had an unfortunately poor trip. The "WHY" is the most important part of this and my goal is for everyone to learn from eachother in attempt for all of us to better be equipped for the Breeders Cup.

I'll start, with my tentative selection in the Breeders Cup Classic (Pending offical PP's, track trends, workouts, etc. etc.) TONALIST.

As I have pointed out, annoyingly, poor Tonalist has had some questionable trips in 2015.

I'll start with the Met Mile. Everyone talks about how HC smoked him. I beg to differ. Here is my "WHY":

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mEyGKSqHve0

Tonalist broke last, (THE ABSOLUTE GREATEST PLACE TO BE in this specific race) and it was completely obvious that JV was a man with no clue where, why, who, when and what he was doing on this warm Saturday in June. He was 2 lengths behind HC early and was driving Tonalist as if it was a quarter horse race at Los Alamitos .

He continued to rally in the 1st quarter of the race, while HC was ALLOWED TO SETTLE and fall back to last. Tonalist was used to run into a 4 horse wall in the Q2, while again HC was rating on the rail in last. JV, was using his horse to race behind a 4 horse wall on the far turn, wasted energy to race 5 wide around the far turn and completely took the starch out of Tonalist in this race.

Tonalist also received poor trips, an extremely poor trip in the Suburban and to me had a deceptively poor ride in the Whitney. In due time, I'll review that as well but wanted to focus on 1 race at a time.


Who saw the same thing?

Who disagrees and thinks I'm a numbskull?

Who liked HC's race?

Who thinks otherwise?

Who had a great trip and should be discounted?

Who else had a poor trip and should be given a pass for this race?

What other races are embedded in your minds as BC 2015 approaches?

I see what you see.....
Honor Code had the benefit of running into a hot pace. Not taking anything away, he did gallop out well.

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by Stillriledup

It's just possible Joel had a conflict and when they got johnny he said he would commit to the horse, either that or they're just listing JV and he's not picking against.

Lets look back to the first race w JV to see if JR had a mount in that race.

For what it's worth:

In his return for the Westchester, J Bravo rode Tonalist. Rosario was not at Belmont that day. I believe he was at CD as it was May 2nd.

In the Met Mile Rosario rode Wicked Strong.

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by CosmicWon

I'm glad you're doing this. Sometimes a have a great feel on one race but no grasp on another.

HUGE Tonalist fan here and have always felt HC was a but overrated. I get so much grief for my Honor Code stance but whatevs, I know I'm correct

That said I'm not so fond of Clement still screwing around with the blinkers and wraps AGAIN. Wasn't aware until recently my Tony Toni Tonelist has really fragile fee and he trains in bar shoes. I'll be watching his feet to make sure he's not feeling ouchy.

My BCC lineup as of today is: AP, Beholder, Tonalist. Key around with the and Effinex and Coach Inge. Because I think she's tops, her are some photos of Beholder ,

I have some really great insight for the F&M Sprint if anyone wants to share later. Thanks for the handicapping nugggets!

Please share!!!

[olddaddy]

What do you think Tonalist will go off at?

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by olddaddy

What do you think Tonalist will go off at?

I hope the "i bet horses twice a year money" will make AP and Beholder the 2 stand out chalks, sucking up 50%-60% of the win pool. Leaving the remaining 40%-50% for the remaining 8,9,10 foes.

That may be wishful thinking as I think the board may be more evened out than my wishful thinking is.

I hope for an overlayed 7/1 -10/1 and I would still bet him at 4/1. That's why I am pissed Liam's Map is not in there. He would've helped Tonalist's chances and the extra contender would have helped the price.

[olddaddy]

I'd love that 7/1-10/1, hoping.