Breeders Cup 2015-PA Version of the Legendary Trips and Traps

[ArlJim78]

Why go through all this pretense? Just make a thread titled Johnny V's Horrible Ride of the Week, then pick the one that most bothers you and rant away. But please begin it with some of your greatest hits like the ride on Materiality in the Belmont. That one went on for weeks. Talk about legendary.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Originally Posted by Stillriledup

Ricks natural star also got an 'automatic entry' by paying a fee, but people seemed to have a problem with him being there.

What?

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

Why go through all this pretense? Just make a thread titled Johnny V's Horrible Ride of the Week, then pick the one that most bothers you and rant away. But please begin it with some of your greatest hits like the ride on Materiality in the Belmont. That one went on for weeks. Talk about legendary.

This thread is about analyzing BC horse's prior races. If you have nothing contributory to provide, please stay out of it.

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by arw629

The Zenyatta was a paid workout....her Pacific Classic was as visually impressive as anyone has been all yr....i question the competition in that race however ....i think some of the other bcc contenders would have also looked like a super horse had they been in the race...Beholder isn't battle tested like the others and I believe will be over bet in the bcc but that doesn't mean she can't win

To me, you hit the nail SQUARE on the head. I too am staying away from falling in love with performances like Beholder's PC, AP's wins in the Preakness, Belmont and Haskell as if you placed Tonalist in those exact same trips, IMO, he would've won by much more and been more dominant.

One could say: but Tonalist is a 4YO, AP is a 3YO. My response would be: They're running in the same race on 10/31, that's why the comparison.

I'm looking for grizzled horse who is faster, more tactical and will sustain better through an elongated and stressed 6F or 7F move in the BCC.

It's my opinion that AP can not run a complete superstar race if stressed at all. (See the Derby, see the Travers) He's an automatic toss in the BCC if anyone breathes on him.

Beholder intrigues me and I might end up using her as a strong B (in addition to Keen Ice) but I have no other use for any other horse in the win spots.

The cupcake trips that make horses look like mega unbeatable stars can be extremely deceiving.

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by cbp

Didn't read your mets comments. Last attempt: your trip handicapping is at a very rudimentary level. It reminds me of the gibberish Fischer writes. My comments are about your take on the trips; not personally about you. You need a conceptual shift. But you lack the skill to see it through.
Tough place to be. Keep plugging away, it'll be a long time coming - if ever. Good luck

I stayed up all night, pondering your statement and after much further review and contemplation, you are so right. In fact, I think you overestimated my ability to watch tape. I'm not at the rudimentary level, I am at the elementary level. I'd be honored if you could take some time and mentor me.




I always wanted to know what it felt like to type a bunch of SHH IT into a paragraph, now thanks to you, I know ! Thanks cpb.

[sammy the sage]

Originally Posted by cbp

Didn't read your mets comments. Last attempt: your trip handicapping is at a very rudimentary level. It reminds me of the gibberish Fischer writes. My comments are about your take on the trips; not personally about you. You need a conceptual shift. But you lack the skill to see it through.
Tough place to be. Keep plugging away, it'll be a long time coming - if ever. Good luck

have NOT SEEN your handicapping...therefore your comments ARE boring

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by Lemon Drop Husker

The only thing Tonalist has proven is that he can beat Wicked Strong. I don't think Wicked Strong will be in the field.

The only other thing Tonalist has proven is that he can be beat by Effinex.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uMmddhuS664

I beg to differ LDH, here's why....

JV broke last (not an issue-that again was the place to be in this race) in the Suburban but then again snatched defeat from the jaws of victory by riding the race as if it was a 6F or 7F sprint instead of a 10F route. Junior totally undressed JV in the Suburban on the backstretch.

JV made a fatal mistake at the 8F pole. He had a choice (watch the head on) of tipping wide and controlling his options but instead chose to move in 1 path, stay in between horses and LOSE all of his options. Junior faked him out at the 3/4 pole and made believe he was going to move up for position. JV took the bait and sent Tonalist up as well. (THE AMAZING PART IS, Junior had no where to go-he had 2 duelers directly in front of him but you can't expect JV to actually know that ) JV, started the engine on Tonalist and then when they hit 1/2 mile pole 2 equally powerful incidents occured.

1) Tonalist got a deceptive and hard bump in between horses AS he was spending most of his energy reserved to go by (in a SUB 24 second 3rd quarter)

2) Effinex was forced ( a good thing) to tuck and rate under a 4 horse FAR TURN duel.

It's amazing to me that Tonalist even found the guts, talent and heart to even finish a nose back at the wire, after Effinex watched the Q4 battle, tipped out and desperately won with a perfect trip in the Suburban.

Switch the 2 horse's trips and Tonalist wins by about 7 and Effinex gets another eased line after the 1/4 pole.

[sammy the sage]

I think this thread is a GOOD idea...just a bit early...will contribute when knowing who runs what where...

and sample of MY handicapping....albeit in reverse...but at least reasons GIVEN...that is IF THE link works...

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...d.php?t=123120

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by sammy the sage

I think this thread is a GOOD idea...just a bit early...will contribute when knowing who runs what where...

and sample of MY handicapping....albeit in reverse...but at least reasons GIVEN...that is IF THE link works...

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...d.php?t=123120

I never saw that thread, I LIKE IT! Thanks for sharing. I love to pick races where I detest the chalk. Thanks sammy the sage.

Yes, BC entries are not formalized but for now we can pick horses that we know should be running.

[cj]

Taris had an absolute brutal trip in her second off the layoff in the L.A. Woman at Santa Anita. I think she has a big shot int he FM Sprint.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by EMD4ME

Beholder

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OfGSFvWouBA

Zenyatta Stakes.....

Thoughts?

Pacific Classic

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z_hNk8QHsJg

Thoughts?

IMO Beholder has proven herself to be an all time great mare, but I thought she couldn't have gotten a much better setup than she did in the Pacific Classic. She sat off a torrid duel all by herself, took control easily when the leaders were done, and then drew off. The fact that no one else off the pace could stay with her when she moved or get close to her late tells you how good she was that day, but I don't think those were the very best older males behind her.

If she can run like that again, IMO she fits with the best males.

But what is the probability she runs that way again?

IMO, it has to be a little lower than for some of the other horses.

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by cj

Taris had an absolute brutal trip in her second off the layoff in the L.A. Woman at Santa Anita. I think she has a big shot int he FM Sprint.

That was a vicious 4 horse slaughter each other pace battle. Definately a race to excuse.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YaLpe6f-sic

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

IMO Beholder has proven herself to be an all time great mare, but I thought she couldn't have gotten a much better setup than she did in the Pacific Classic. She sat off a torrid duel all by herself, took control easily when the leaders were done, and then drew off. The fact that no one else off the pace could stay with her when she moved or get close to her late tells you how good she was that day, but I don't think those were the very best older males behind her.

If she can run like that again, IMO she fits with the best males.

But what is the probability she runs that way again?

IMO, it has to be a little lower than for some of the other horses.

I would agree. The odds of her sitting 3rd, 5 behind a 2 horse duel AND 3 or 4 in front of the 3rd flight are about zero to 1% in the BCC (IMHO). Just don't see:

1) 2 horses dueling like that
2) not having a horse next to her (or 2 or 3) in the garden spot.

[Saratoga_Mike]

Originally Posted by EMD4ME

I would agree. The odds of her sitting 3rd, 5 behind a 2 horse duel AND 3 or 4 in front of the 3rd flight are about zero to 1% in the BCC (IMHO). Just don't see:

1) 2 horses dueling like that
2) not having a horse next to her (or 2 or 3) in the garden spot.

Welcome back. Post some BC picks once PPs are out.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Originally Posted by EMD4ME

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uMmddhuS664

I beg to differ LDH, here's why....

JV broke last (not an issue-that again was the place to be in this race) in the Suburban but then again snatched defeat from the jaws of victory by riding the race as if it was a 6F or 7F sprint instead of a 10F route. Junior totally undressed JV in the Suburban on the backstretch.

JV made a fatal mistake at the 8F pole. He had a choice (watch the head on) of tipping wide and controlling his options but instead chose to move in 1 path, stay in between horses and LOSE all of his options. Junior faked him out at the 3/4 pole and made believe he was going to move up for position. JV took the bait and sent Tonalist up as well. (THE AMAZING PART IS, Junior had no where to go-he had 2 duelers directly in front of him but you can't expect JV to actually know that ) JV, started the engine on Tonalist and then when they hit 1/2 mile pole 2 equally powerful incidents occured.

1) Tonalist got a deceptive and hard bump in between horses AS he was spending most of his energy reserved to go by (in a SUB 24 second 3rd quarter)

2) Effinex was forced ( a good thing) to tuck and rate under a 4 horse FAR TURN duel.

It's amazing to me that Tonalist even found the guts, talent and heart to even finish a nose back at the wire, after Effinex watched the Q4 battle, tipped out and desperately won with a perfect trip in the Suburban.

Switch the 2 horse's trips and Tonalist wins by about 7 and Effinex gets another eased line after the 1/4 pole.

The Effinex line was a bit tongue in cheek to be honest.

I know Tonalist is better than Effinex.

My biggest problem with Tonalist is that in big fields, in big races, there always seems to be excuses as to why he doesn't win.

Take away his Belmont Stakes win (which the field looks to be pretty suspect now when one looks at it), and he consistently comes up short against his best rivals, and even some of his supposed lessers.