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10-01-2015, 09:54 AM
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#46
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2010
Location: Nevada
Posts: 71
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Capper Al
Filtering through pace ideologies and selecting their individual strengths. Giles ranks on top for final application. BRIS methods as listed in their library are somewhat useful. Pace makes the race has been superseded by time. Got to come up with a working scenario. Quirin and Ainslie thoughts are always present. Whatever I decide will be a secret and an experiment.
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The formula is actually developed on the fly. It's a different scenario than just take this formula and code. You have to speculate what might work.
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10-01-2015, 11:40 AM
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#47
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EXCEL with SUPERFECTAS
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 10,206
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Pick 'em Charlie
The formula is actually developed on the fly. It's a different scenario than just take this formula and code. You have to speculate what might work.
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I agree, but isn't it necessary to have a benchmark already calculated in order to speculate what might happen in today's race? In other words, shouldn't you already know that a fast pace should happen due to a race having multiple early horses, with speed, in the field, before you speculate that the trainer and/or jockey of specific horses might not want to get involved in a pace battle? Those types of scenarios probably lose more races for good pace handicappers than any other factors, at least those players who try to visualize the way a race should run, and who will be advantaged or disadvantaged.
For me, most of my losses are due to races not running, early, the way I project them to run.
Last edited by raybo; 10-01-2015 at 11:42 AM.
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10-01-2015, 02:44 PM
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#48
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Veteran
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 3,428
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by raybo
... For me, most of my losses are due to races not running, early, the way I project them to run.
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You're lucky because all of my losses are due to races not running, the way I project them to run.
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10-01-2015, 03:04 PM
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#49
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EXCEL with SUPERFECTAS
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 10,206
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by whodoyoulike
You're lucky because all of my losses are due to races not running, the way I project them to run.
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I qualified my statement by adding "early", not just not running the way projected. If the race doesn't run "early" the way you projected it would, then you will never know if your overall analysis of the race was right or wrong. However, a race can still run exactly how you thought it would "early" and you could still lose because some horses didn't finish the way you thought they would, or any of the numerous other factors other than "early". So, most, but certainly not all, of my losses are due to the early portion of those races not running as I thought they would.
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10-01-2015, 06:35 PM
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#50
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: MI
Posts: 6,330
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Raybo,
My speculation is on the pace formula itself. I now have it in my head, afterwards it will need testing.
__________________
"The Law, in its majestic equality, forbids the rich, as well as the poor, to sleep under bridges, to beg in the streets, and to steal bread."
Anatole France
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10-01-2015, 06:36 PM
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#51
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: MI
Posts: 6,330
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by whodoyoulike
You're lucky because all of my losses are due to races not running, the way I project them to run.
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There's no bewilderment like seeing a closer set the early pace.
__________________
"The Law, in its majestic equality, forbids the rich, as well as the poor, to sleep under bridges, to beg in the streets, and to steal bread."
Anatole France
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10-04-2015, 06:22 AM
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#52
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: MI
Posts: 6,330
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Keeneland is back. Lots of longshots yesterday. I bought the horses oats.
__________________
"The Law, in its majestic equality, forbids the rich, as well as the poor, to sleep under bridges, to beg in the streets, and to steal bread."
Anatole France
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10-05-2015, 03:39 PM
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#53
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: MI
Posts: 6,330
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Figuring out my pace. Right now Turn Time is in question.
__________________
"The Law, in its majestic equality, forbids the rich, as well as the poor, to sleep under bridges, to beg in the streets, and to steal bread."
Anatole France
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10-05-2015, 06:01 PM
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#54
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EXCEL with SUPERFECTAS
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 10,206
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Capper Al
Figuring out my pace. Right now Turn Time is in question.
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Turn time in seconds, feet per second, or pace figure? Are you having trouble figuring out what turn time is, how to calculate it, or how to use it?
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10-05-2015, 06:55 PM
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#55
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: MI
Posts: 6,330
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by raybo
Turn time in seconds, feet per second, or pace figure? Are you having trouble figuring out what turn time is, how to calculate it, or how to use it?
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I use pace figure turn time for now. I see it is can have value as a form indicator, but as a pace factor I'm not seeing it.
__________________
"The Law, in its majestic equality, forbids the rich, as well as the poor, to sleep under bridges, to beg in the streets, and to steal bread."
Anatole France
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10-05-2015, 07:07 PM
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#56
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EXCEL with SUPERFECTAS
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 10,206
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Capper Al
I use pace figure turn time for now. I see it is can have value as a form indicator, but as a pace factor I'm not seeing it.
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I agree that it shouldn't be used in isolation, but can be valuable when considering other pace related factors with it. Most handicappers don't use it at all, therefore, it is not as bet down as other more mainstream factors are.
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10-05-2015, 07:12 PM
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#57
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: MI
Posts: 6,330
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One of Scott's books was heavily into ability time, believe it was E2 + TT. Can't remember which book.
__________________
"The Law, in its majestic equality, forbids the rich, as well as the poor, to sleep under bridges, to beg in the streets, and to steal bread."
Anatole France
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10-05-2015, 07:30 PM
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#58
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 102
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Turn time
Dick Mitchell also liked turn time added back to second call.
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10-05-2015, 08:41 PM
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#59
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EXCEL with SUPERFECTAS
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IMO, the degree of value for turn time is related to preferred or projected running style.
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10-05-2015, 08:58 PM
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#60
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,531
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I never bought into the "turn time" theory. One fraction is just as important as another...as far as I am concerned.
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