What's up with the Capper?

[ebcorde]

Originally Posted by cbp

The best modelers/scientists, etc. tend to have a deep understanding of what they're reasoning about. This allows them to create abstractions that facilitate/illuminate reasoning about the target.

You approach the game in terms of abstractions created by others. As your understanding of the thing itself is quite poor, you lack the ability to properly assess the abstractions. You know what your data tells you but you don't understand why.

You've come to it ass backwards and you constantly post these childish perspectives. Anyone can be profitable if they identify a few patterns and only play under optimal conditions. When they step outside of the little pond and try to make some real money, they fall on their faces. Face it, you don't know the game and thus don't really have a clue, let alone a strong opinion.

On the other hand, plenty of someone-else's-abstractions players out there, which is actually a good thing.

THAT'S OFF THE WALL!!!!

example: Wall Street is always searching for high level Math people to develop algorithms for Stock trading Most of them will take data and find a pattern then try to apply an already proven theory they learned in school.
they're not stock brokers

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by Capper Al

And I'm probably going to lose another one.

Let see if I have this right. You have your vendors selling software for hundreds of dollars and charging big monthly sums for data without any proof of what they do, and I claim to have a losing year and you protest?

No, not at all. I don't even know how you come up with that.

You didn't like one of the replies you received. Some (including you) thought it was uncalled for. I only offered my opinion that it was a harsh opinion, but not something I would delete...meaning it wasn't uncivil. It was just brutally honest.

So I'm not sure where you're coming up with the "protest" thing. As far as I know, I didn't protest against anything in this thread, other than other people saying the first reply here by cbp was out of line.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by Capper Al

Put me on your ignore list, please.

Thanks

Mind boggling response.

[Capper Al]

on a coding roll. I'm finishing up workouts and about to start pace.

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by cbp

Anyone can be profitable if they identify a few patterns and only play under optimal conditions.

Why not stop right there, cbp? That is exactly what I have done. There are too many tracks and too many races, for a player NOT to play under conditions he/she finds optimal. Otherwise you're just gambling.
If you, or anyone has a need to go to deeper intellectual levels than most, good for you. I'm the type that, if I can purchase figures that are done for me...and I know what to do with them, I'm perfectly happy with that arrangement.
Have a good evening
-NCG

[TonyMLake]

Originally Posted by Capper Al

Because of some recent post that question what I'm up to, I'll just post my answer here.

After 5 profitable years as a low roller, I move up to roller. My average size bet jumped from about $6 to $12 a race to $12 to $24. I blew it and had a bad year and lost money. I couldn't figure out what went wrong, was it a losing streak or my new wagering methods? Or did racing catch me unaware and changed again right under my feet?

I still have my day job. So my time is very limited. I usually wager only one card a week on Saturdays. So about a year and a half ago, I thought that I would rewrite my app and, hopefully, find out what happened. The rewrite was suppose to take 6 moths. Now a year and half later, I'm hoping to get it finished in 6 months.

As I go through my rewrite, I find questions to post about of interest to me and hopefully others too. As for what happened to my winning years, I believe it was mostly my new more aggressive wagering approach going for the big money that might of worked against me in conjunction with a losing streak. At the time I thought I had the game beat. And what about now? I'm willing to lose money for the next 6 months to year and enjoy myself while I get all my ducks back in a row. Meaning, as I go through my rewrite, I'll post what I find interesting. As for those who claim that I am secretly hunting for answers, I have one question for you. Did you have a five year winning streak? If so, then we need to talk. Otherwise, enjoy my post.

Haha... I'm right there with you. I think I and my program get the least respect of all around here because my app is very, very simple and is most definitely in the "comfortable little pond" I can win in.

Like you, I still have a day job, but haven't added money to my TVG account in literally years now. I always lose when I go for the big quick money, but I do okay when I do what my app says or even play a little smaller... as evidenced by starting with a couple hundred in my TVG account and currently having about $1300. It's been as high as over $2000 and as low as about ten bucks.

Like you, I've had losing years. I don't even worry about losing anymore. Even if I lost every dime of it, my original $200 paid for itself in the joy of the game and the gamble.

There are people on here that take a potshot at every little thing, so I mostly don't even post unless it's as factual as I can be, but, hehe, unfortunately, most people don't have the same fact set as I do.

So, I take 'em as they come.

You're popular and a regular. That makes you a big target, so don't worry about that nonsense. Hang in there and do what makes you happy. Bet in your comfort zone, enjoy tweeking your algorithm, and play in the range that affords you happiness. If you do that, you're winning... why not? Horses are beautiful, the game is great, and gambling is fun.

I appreciate your insight and frankness.

Tony

[Capper Al]

Thanks Tony. The last 3 months I have actually been ahead, but I see myself giving it back. Like the old time handicapping authors used to say, a system needs to be tested for about 30 days before using actual money. I agree with this. But what St. Paul said is still true today, "the mind is strong, but the flesh is weak." It may not be an exact quote. It's too much fun to stay out of the game, besides I like to look at the new stuff I coded to see how it works.

My stuff may be too complex. It will get chopped down after complete system testing. Workouts are finished and ready for testing. Next week pace.

Ciao

[raybo]

My question is why are you doing a complete rewrite? You stated that you increased your bet amounts and "blew it". Shouldn't you have just gone back to your previously profitable bet sizes to see if your method was still working and the problem was YOU, not the method? I understand the attraction to working with your program, I do that all the time, but I never change my methods and bet real money until my research and record keeping show that something new actually works, then I will incorporate it and keep tracking it.

The old saying "Dance with the one that brung ya" is applicable to racing, as long as your records tell you it's still working of course. I quit playing for a whole year back in '05 because things were going downhill suddenly in an unusually long drawn out losing streak. After that year off I went back and analyzed my records and found that there was nothing at all wrong with my methods, the problem was with ME, I had stopped doing my due diligence in verifying that what my method was telling me was logical. I corrected that and have had winning years ever since.

[Capper Al]

Raybo,

I know it looks strange from the outside. I have always aggressively improved my game changing bits and pieces as my understanding kept growing. Basically once I realized that I've been losing it had been two years. Two years back I was profitable by luck, hit a $1,200 trifecta that got me out of the soup. So with the code changes over two years, I lost my way. Since then, I found out that it was mostly how I wagered. It also was a good time to review the code and take it to the next level with what I had learned over the years. One major lesson from the past is that when I get done is to quit developing. I have now been around the block a few times

[raybo]

My suggestion would be to continue exploring, if your program does not include that capability then use Excel or Open Office Calc, etc.. Fortunately mine allows me to test new things without a rewrite. Racing changes, as do we as players, over time so, IMO, it's important to continue evolving ourselves, and our methods, but only incorporate new things into our actual play once they are proven successful over a significant period of time. "Significant" varies with method, so it's not necessarily a long period of time.

[whodoyoulike]

Originally Posted by Capper Al

... One major lesson from the past is that when I get done is to quit developing. I have now been around the block a few times

I'm certain if you asked around that tweaking a successful approach is a bad idea. The time period to test is so a long that once you realize the tweak is not a good idea, it's too late (you [meaning I] forget which version worked). Just make sure each of your modules work or have a sound basis of logic.

[Capper Al]

The rewrite is mainly throwing in everything but the kitchen sink. Hopefully, I should not need to add new elements. I am set up to be able to tweak or add new ideas. But this is s dangerous as it is good. I'm almost at 14,000 lines of code and still have pace to add. The spreadsheet with over 20 tabs is almost to ZZ column for the input(outputted from the C++ app). The problem is keeping all this together in my mind is boggling. Looking back two years and trying to figure what went wrong is next to impossible. What the rewrite will do is organize my thought process.

The funny thing is that I realize that after this another rewrite is needed. Not to improve the handicapping, but to clean up the code.

[whodoyoulike]

Originally Posted by Capper Al

... What the rewrite will do is organize my thought process.

The funny thing is that I realize that after this another rewrite is needed. Not to improve the handicapping, but to clean up the code.

Be sure you make a backup.

Otherwise, I can see another thread topic coming soon.

[Capper Al]

Originally Posted by whodoyoulike

Be sure you make a backup.

Otherwise, I can see another thread topic coming soon.

I always have backups, so you won't have to worry about that.

[Capper Al]

Filtering through pace ideologies and selecting their individual strengths. Giles ranks on top for final application. BRIS methods as listed in their library are somewhat useful. Pace makes the race has been superseded by time. Got to come up with a working scenario. Quirin and Ainslie thoughts are always present. Whatever I decide will be a secret and an experiment.