Pace is a secondary attribute, but many play it as a primary

[raybo]

I think many players that are trying to figure out this game think that "pace" handicappers only consider pace. Not true for many of us. Pace is a qualifier for both speed and class. Speed is often earned by pace. Class is often defined by pace. But, form is a qualifier for all of those, because poor current form can affect pace, speed and class abilities in individual race performances.

Speed, as in final time ratings, is dependent on pace, form, and to some degree on class. Speed is a dependent variable, and means little by itself.

Class is often defined as being able to set or handle the pace and still finish strong, but does not necessarily correlate to high speed figures, because many high class horses only run as fast as they need to, not as fast as they can. The problem with class is when you play races with several horses of the same previously displayed class. Which one is the class of the class in this race? What defines that horse? Often it is pace or form that decides the class of the class. Being able to run fast early and also fast late, while being in good enough form to display that ability.

So, pace is common to both speed and class. And form is common to pace, speed, and class.

In my mind, when we are talking about handicapping individual dirt sprint races, the rankings for prime factors are: form, pace, speed, class. For dirt route races they are: form, pace, class, speed. Turf sprints are the same as dirt sprints. Turf route factor rankings are: form, class, pace, speed.

Pace analysis, does not just concern early speed, it is also middle speed, and late speed. So, pace truly does make the race, if form is equal for all.

Well, there you go Al. That's my story and I'm sticking to it.

[LottaKash]

Originally Posted by Capper Al

I'm open to discussing primary factors that are not pace also. Some of my thinking might come from coding. I consider these other factors as secondary after I get my output.

I forgot to mention tho, I use "pace" and not final time as my first filter, when looking for the horse with the most Ability, and Ability is the first thing that I want to know about any of the horses before I go any deeper into the race....

If I can find a horse that can Pace with anyone in the field, and can compete in this class, if not with better than any of the others, then this for me, is the horse to beat, unless otherwise noted...

Imo final time and speed figures are overrated and overused (of course not to be dismissed too lightly tho), so Pace, at least in the way that I assess and use it, is my Primary velocity/speed measurement when trying to discover a horse's true ability..... If a horse can set, maintain, or overcome any pace, then the rest should fall right into place... or not...

[whodoyoulike]

Originally Posted by Capper Al

When does pace come into judgment? After these other factors, or before them?

Based on prior readings of your posts, it seems you're taking some "pace" number from some source data and saying this is telling you the "pace of a race". I don't think this is the way pace works in races .... whether we are discussing auto, human or horses. You need to try to understand what those numbers mean. You should be looking for how a race shapes up but, it's not an easy thing to do. It requires the ability to observe and understand that pace is really a cause and effect scenario situation.

I don't know how you would be able to code the above but some people can and others can't. All of the factors you've mentioned are important but they will vary depending on the entries which I think contributes that every race ends up unique but with just enough similarities that it looks easy.

Btw, I think you've been coming up with some very good and even excellent ideas.

[Tom]

I think you spend way too much time trying to make up rules for everyone else and not enough time actually handicapping yourself. You sound like that writer who interviews Little Billy in the Unforgiven, who always states how other people will act in situations.

Give yourself permission to just handicap....it's only a danged horse race.

Going into a race, pace might seem to be a major factor, but after they hit the wire, every winner came out of a pace scenario. Look at the top horse the last few years, Game On Dude and Bayern. The one opponent neither one could always beat was pace, but when they won, it because they controlled the pace.

[no breathalyzer]

Originally Posted by LottaKash

I agree that it really depends on the race, when it comes to what to use and what are/is of the most important thing(s) to use in any given race..

My Primary-Factors are: Ability (which, imo, is a combination of Speed/Pace&Class), Form, and Angles...and in that order..


Sometimes Ability and Form are neutralized and Angles become the deciding factor in my handicapping in any given race...And sometimes it is simply the horse with the most Ability, or sometimes Form will be the go factor.... Or a combination of all three will be the nice bargain...

are we brothers from another mother . what you said pretty much sums up how i handicap nowadays . i will add it took me awhile to realize that pace is important. when i was losing in this game i would undermine how important the race flow or pace was

[no breathalyzer]

Originally Posted by raybo

I think many players that are trying to figure out this game think that "pace" handicappers only consider pace. Not true for many of us. Pace is a qualifier for both speed and class. Speed is often earned by pace. Class is often defined by pace. But, form is a qualifier for all of those, because poor current form can affect pace, speed and class abilities in individual race performances.

Speed, as in final time ratings, is dependent on pace, form, and to some degree on class. Speed is a dependent variable, and means little by itself.

Class is often defined as being able to set or handle the pace and still finish strong, but does not necessarily correlate to high speed figures, because many high class horses only run as fast as they need to, not as fast as they can. The problem with class is when you play races with several horses of the same previously displayed class. Which one is the class of the class in this race? What defines that horse? Often it is pace or form that decides the class of the class. Being able to run fast early and also fast late, while being in good enough form to display that ability.

So, pace is common to both speed and class. And form is common to pace, speed, and class.

In my mind, when we are talking about handicapping individual dirt sprint races, the rankings for prime factors are: form, pace, speed, class. For dirt route races they are: form, pace, class, speed. Turf sprints are the same as dirt sprints. Turf route factor rankings are: form, class, pace, speed.

Pace analysis, does not just concern early speed, it is also middle speed, and late speed. So, pace truly does make the race, if form is equal for all.

Well, there you go Al. That's my story and I'm sticking to it.

This separates the men from the boys. being able to distinguish the class before its obvious to everyone. I have my own class ratings for all nyra horses. Which is probably why i crush nl 1 2 and 3 races over the last couple of yrs

[ebcorde]

As a primary when I spent some time with a relative of Jose Santos.
One of the best handicapper/bettors I've been around, He relied heavily on Pace
I see Pace as sectional speed

[lamboguy]

i don't see anything wrong with using pace numbers as a primary factor handicapping as long as one can assign proper odds to those numbers.

[MJC922]

Originally Posted by whodoyoulike

Based on prior readings of your posts, it seems you're taking some "pace" number from some source data and saying this is telling you the "pace of a race". I don't think this is the way pace works in races .... whether we are discussing auto, human or horses. You need to try to understand what those numbers mean. You should be looking for how a race shapes up but, it's not an easy thing to do. It requires the ability to observe and understand that pace is really a cause and effect scenario situation.

I don't know how you would be able to code the above but some people can and others can't. All of the factors you've mentioned are important but they will vary depending on the entries which I think contributes that every race ends up unique but with just enough similarities that it looks easy.

Btw, I think you've been coming up with some very good and even excellent ideas.

Good post, seems we may share an understanding of where he's coming from with this. Al, correct me if I'm wrong. The discussion is about when does (or when should) the projected early pace enter the process of contender selection.

If the projected early pace is deemed to be a secondary factor then I think it's implied that it's used later in the process more for separating contenders, in that case early eliminations might begin with outclassed horses or horses with the slowest final times in the race.

If the projected early pace is deemed to be a primary factor then it can be utilized in the earliest process of contender selection. This it seems to me is the proper order of execution. Because if handled this way, in races top-heavy with 'can't win without the early lead' types, the 'entry point' for the first eliminations doesn't concern class or speed figures. The entry point for eliminations in this scenario begins with the one or more need the lead horses with the least early speed, those with the slower early pace figures, those with the slower early fractions. This properly allows the somewhat outclassed even-running plodder to stay on the radar.

[Capper Al]

Originally Posted by MJC922

If my suspicion were the value in today's game is in pre-race pace analysis then I would cherry-pick and concentrate my prime bets only in those races. I have friends who do that and I have done it in the past as well. Frankly I don't know if that's where the value is to be found today. Someone else knee-deep in the game fulltime these days might know.

However, I think what you're getting at here Al is do you currently have the proper 'order of execution' -- and in that case I believe the answer is no. IMO projected pace should be a very early if not the earliest step because otherwise we risk being shallow on contenders, eliminating horses who in a typical pace scenario have little chance but in the extreme pace scenario these are potentially very live longshots. Especially if you're a verticals player, some of the best value can be found with suck up horses that based upon class (or speed figs) appear to have almost no chance.

I'm fine with the order of factors that I use. I do want to hear why others might do things differently. One thing about this game is that you've got to keep an open mind.

[Capper Al]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

The "forecasting" aspect of pace is only a minor part of its use...and perhaps its least effective. The most important part of pace handicapping, as far as I am concerned, isn't in trying to "predict" what will happen in the race that's yet to be run today. That's the part that I emphasized in my prior post...because that's the part that's easiest to explain.

To me...the most effective part of "pace handicapping" is in trying to understand how good the horses' PRIOR performances have been. Without a thorough understanding of pace...a handicapper can easily misinterpret a horse's high speed figure...and he can also fail to notice the valid reason for a performance which, at first glance, appears unforgivably bad.

I look at the past performances...and I see that a horse runs a sharp race whenever he is allowed to set a 46-second half mile in a sprint. I look at the horse's last race...and see that he finished a tired 7th while battling on the lead in the exact same class and distance that he usually runs. At first glance...this appears to be the sort of race which might lead me to think that this horse is the sort of horse that's best avoided in its subsequent start...for fear that the horse is tailing off "form". Then I look a little closer...and I see that the horse was asked to travel in 45 seconds flat at the half mile of its "tiring" race. Now the performance makes sense to me. There is nothing wrong with this horse...it was just the victim of the fast pace scenario which unfolded in its last race. Now...I look with anticipation for the horse's next start...thinking that I perhaps could get a better-than-usual price on this horse as a result of this apparently bad performance.

I know that this example sounds obvious...but variations of this example can be found every day. The pace scenario often spells the difference between a horse winning its race...or it finishing a tiring 7th. That hardly seems like a "minor factor" to me.

So your pace analysis is your form analysis, so to speak?

[Capper Al]

Originally Posted by raybo

I think many players that are trying to figure out this game think that "pace" handicappers only consider pace. Not true for many of us. Pace is a qualifier for both speed and class. Speed is often earned by pace. Class is often defined by pace. But, form is a qualifier for all of those, because poor current form can affect pace, speed and class abilities in individual race performances.

Speed, as in final time ratings, is dependent on pace, form, and to some degree on class. Speed is a dependent variable, and means little by itself.

Class is often defined as being able to set or handle the pace and still finish strong, but does not necessarily correlate to high speed figures, because many high class horses only run as fast as they need to, not as fast as they can. The problem with class is when you play races with several horses of the same previously displayed class. Which one is the class of the class in this race? What defines that horse? Often it is pace or form that decides the class of the class. Being able to run fast early and also fast late, while being in good enough form to display that ability.

So, pace is common to both speed and class. And form is common to pace, speed, and class.

In my mind, when we are talking about handicapping individual dirt sprint races, the rankings for prime factors are: form, pace, speed, class. For dirt route races they are: form, pace, class, speed. Turf sprints are the same as dirt sprints. Turf route factor rankings are: form, class, pace, speed.

Pace analysis, does not just concern early speed, it is also middle speed, and late speed. So, pace truly does make the race, if form is equal for all.

Well, there you go Al. That's my story and I'm sticking to it.

We're on the same page here. This sounds similar to what I do.

[Capper Al]

Originally Posted by whodoyoulike

Based on prior readings of your posts, it seems you're taking some "pace" number from some source data and saying this is telling you the "pace of a race". I don't think this is the way pace works in races .... whether we are discussing auto, human or horses. You need to try to understand what those numbers mean. You should be looking for how a race shapes up but, it's not an easy thing to do. It requires the ability to observe and understand that pace is really a cause and effect scenario situation.

I don't know how you would be able to code the above but some people can and others can't. All of the factors you've mentioned are important but they will vary depending on the entries which I think contributes that every race ends up unique but with just enough similarities that it looks easy.

Btw, I think you've been coming up with some very good and even excellent ideas.

For pace, I like Randy Giles methods. I also will use it as an elimination factor saying the horse needs to be here at the second call but in this crowd can't make it -- he will be marked as a possible not to win horse.

Thanks for the compliment.

[Capper Al]

Originally Posted by Tom

I think you spend way too much time trying to make up rules for everyone else and not enough time actually handicapping yourself. You sound like that writer who interviews Little Billy in the Unforgiven, who always states how other people will act in situations.

Give yourself permission to just handicap....it's only a danged horse race.

Going into a race, pace might seem to be a major factor, but after they hit the wire, every winner came out of a pace scenario. Look at the top horse the last few years, Game On Dude and Bayern. The one opponent neither one could always beat was pace, but when they won, it because they controlled the pace.

I make rules for myself and my code. I agree that I should spend more time handicapping, but I still have my day job. I agree with your after the race analysis. It would be who overcame or controlled the pace.

[burnsy]

Originally Posted by Tom

I think you spend way too much time trying to make up rules for everyone else and not enough time actually handicapping yourself. You sound like that writer who interviews Little Billy in the Unforgiven, who always states how other people will act in situations.

Give yourself permission to just handicap....it's only a danged horse race.

Going into a race, pace might seem to be a major factor, but after they hit the wire, every winner came out of a pace scenario. Look at the top horse the last few years, Game On Dude and Bayern. The one opponent neither one could always beat was pace, but when they won, it because they controlled the pace.

Nice Tom, he's not the only one that does it. There's some other guy that tries to tell people what races to pass. Give me a break. I know when I see a favorite I want to beat. Been handicapping long enough. Some people are too hard core for me. Formulas , numbers, formulator stats......give me some winners and horses that can run well. I'm not just there to win, I gotta have fun too. I see these guys blurting facts and figs but when do they pick a good horse, that actually pays something? I'm old school, I read the pp's and find hidden contenders. PACE SCENARIO IS HUGE IN WHAT I DO.

Now people are telling me pace is no way to handicap. Funny when those turf courses at Saratoga was spitting out 20, 30 and 40 dollar winners on the front end......I should of ignored that and punched in facts and figures...then complained when my "facts" and "figs"..got its ass kicked, I'll try that next year........... These are the same folks that bring you "Saratoga is too hard, threads". Gee, I wonder why? Open your eyes, then open your mind. Jump on the trends, or get left behind. Pace is a huge trend to follow. Crap, there are 50 ways until Sunday to skin a cat. I like my results so I'll stay with that. Plus, I actually have human fun doing it.