Are contenders more important than selections?

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

....Typical race though, my experience is that if you have 2 overlays in the win pool, the exacta combining them is going to be good also....

It should be because an overlay is winning the race. In my research, I found that it is hard to ruin an overlay by betting it on the top in verticals. The problem is that an overlay in the win pool may not be an overlay in the 2nd or 3rd position of a trifecta.

[raybo]

In my opinion, if you are looking at the vertical exotics, you must get the idea of "overlays" out of your thinking, and instead get the idea of "odds rankings" into your thinking. The actual odds do not apply to the verticals, so the word or idea of "overlay" basically does not apply, except as it applies to the "totality" of the ticket you are considering, meaning the 4 horses that comprise the 4 finishing positions on your ticket that have the lowest public odds rankings.

I don't know, maybe all the times I have posted this stuff nobody really gets it? If so then I have wasted a lot of time by posting this very important (IMO) aspect of vertical exotic wagering. To me actual live "odds" mean nothing in the verticals. Odds "rankings" are everything, if you're looking for value in the verticals.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by AndyC

It should be because an overlay is winning the race. In my research, I found that it is hard to ruin an overlay by betting it on the top in verticals. The problem is that an overlay in the win pool may not be an overlay in the 2nd or 3rd position of a trifecta.

I agree assuming you put it underneath a big underlay....which I almost never do UNLESS my horse is a BIG overlay.

If I have some 5-1 shot I think should be the favorite, I'll bet it to win or to win and place and stop right there UNLESS there's another overlay to hook it up with. I'm not going to put that horse underneath the favorite in the exacta just in case the favorite wins or even under longshot underlays trying to catch a big ticket by luck.

If I have some 15-1 shot I think is very live and a huge overlay, I will bet it win and place and use it under and over some mild underlays.

[crestridge]

Also including the relative volatility of the race; if there's only 5 entrants, or if there are twelve entrants in a event, one usually has a certain bias with respect to strategy...picks vs value.

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by raybo

In my opinion, if you are looking at the vertical exotics, you must get the idea of "overlays" out of your thinking, and instead get the idea of "odds rankings" into your thinking. The actual odds do not apply to the verticals, so the word or idea of "overlay" basically does not apply, except as it applies to the "totality" of the ticket you are considering, meaning the 4 horses that comprise the 4 finishing positions on your ticket that have the lowest public odds rankings.

I don't know, maybe all the times I have posted this stuff nobody really gets it? If so then I have wasted a lot of time by posting this very important (IMO) aspect of vertical exotic wagering. To me actual live "odds" mean nothing in the verticals. Odds "rankings" are everything, if you're looking for value in the verticals.

The top horse in your vertical should be an overlay in the win pools. So actual odds do matter. A horse who gets 20% of the win pool will generally get 20% of the exotic pool with the horse bet on top.

Your ideas regarding odds rankings are not something I have spent time researching. They sound logical and are certainly worth examining.

[raybo]

Originally Posted by AndyC

The top horse in your vertical should be an overlay in the win pools. So actual odds do matter. A horse who gets 20% of the win pool will generally get 20% of the exotic pool with the horse bet on top.

Your ideas regarding odds rankings are not something I have spent time researching. They sound logical and are certainly worth examining.

I bet favorites on top of my supers often, even very low priced favorites, and still get value when my highest odds ranked horses hit the ticket, it's the odds ranking spread that counts. Of course, a good price on top helps tremendously, but definitely not required to find value in the verticals.

[ultracapper]

Originally Posted by AndyC

The top horse in your vertical should be an overlay in the win pools. So actual odds do matter. A horse who gets 20% of the win pool will generally get 20% of the exotic pool with the horse bet on top.

Your ideas regarding odds rankings are not something I have spent time researching. They sound logical and are certainly worth examining.

Your second paragraph, you're joking, right? If you watch the board at all, you know real odds mean nothing in the exotics. If the 3/5 favorite wins and a 6/1 comes in second, what will the exacta pay? It's going to depend if the 6/1 is the second betting choice, or if it's the 4th betting choice. Obviously, I hope.

[MJC922]

Good thread going on here. I'm just as guilty of this as anyone but I think sometimes we're attaching heavier weight to win odds than is warranted in terms of the actual probabilities. These days the exacta pool is probably about as large as the win pool. Even though historical studies have been done on the accuracy of win odds, the money bet in exactas, triples and supers is probably no less accurate, maybe even more so. The handful of 'betting trainers' I've observed in the past were all betting exactas and trifectas. I think maybe if you're pretty good at predicting the horse 'running out' the potential is a lot higher for making money in the verticals. If you know your own horse is going to get bet but isn't up to snuff today this is going to be golden.

[Capper Al]

I use win odds to make my exotic bets most of the time. It's just too much of a hassle to be going back and forth between screens before the windows close. 99% of the time I'm okay, but I do only play my overlays on top. If should not put my overlays on top, I check.

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by ultracapper

Your second paragraph, you're joking, right? If you watch the board at all, you know real odds mean nothing in the exotics. If the 3/5 favorite wins and a 6/1 comes in second, what will the exacta pay? It's going to depend if the 6/1 is the second betting choice, or if it's the 4th betting choice. Obviously, I hope.

You missed my point. I stated that an overlay in the win pool will be an overlay on top in a vertical bet. That's it. An alternate view was put forth by Raybo talking about odds rankings.

I only know what I know. So let me ask you about your example. Would the exacta pay the same if the second choice was either 6-1 or 2-1? Your comment says "no' but I would disagree.

[therussmeister]

Originally Posted by raybo

In my opinion, if you are looking at the vertical exotics, you must get the idea of "overlays" out of your thinking, and instead get the idea of "odds rankings" into your thinking. The actual odds do not apply to the verticals, so the word or idea of "overlay" basically does not apply, except as it applies to the "totality" of the ticket you are considering, meaning the 4 horses that comprise the 4 finishing positions on your ticket that have the lowest public odds rankings.

I don't know, maybe all the times I have posted this stuff nobody really gets it? If so then I have wasted a lot of time by posting this very important (IMO) aspect of vertical exotic wagering. To me actual live "odds" mean nothing in the verticals. Odds "rankings" are everything, if you're looking for value in the verticals.

I think you are right for trifectas and supers, but not so much in exactas. However, I might be missing something here since I can get exacta prices on demand, so I spend little time attempting to predict exacta prices.

[raybo]

Originally Posted by AndyC

You missed my point. I stated that an overlay in the win pool will be an overlay on top in a vertical bet. That's it. An alternate view was put forth by Raybo talking about odds rankings.

I only know what I know. So let me ask you about your example. Would the exacta pay the same if the second choice was either 6-1 or 2-1? Your comment says "no' but I would disagree.

Naturally, if the 2nd choice is obviously getting bet more heavily (2/1 rather than 6/1 for example) then more people will bet the horse in the verticals too. But that just means that that particular horse will cause the exotic payout to be slightly smaller than if it was not bet so heavily. But, regardless of the odds, a 2nd choice in the public odds, is still the 2nd choice, and lots of people will have that horse in the verticals, just because it is the 2nd choice, regardless of its odds. When it comes to the 2nd position (or any position below the win position) in verticals, many players will have more than one horse in that position, so many players will have the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, etc. odds ranked horses on their vertical tickets, and if they hit there will be many more winners in the pool, and thus a much smaller payout will result. Don't forget, many less sophisticated players will box horses who are ranked high by the public, in Exactas they will box the top 2 or 3, in Trifectas they will box the top 3 or 4, and in Superfectas they will box the top 4 or 5. That's why it is important to have a good odds rankings "spread" on your ticket before placing the bet, especially if the favorite is not missing from your ticket.

Since the introduction of the $1 exacta, the $0.50 trifecta, and the $0.10 superfecta many more players are now playing those bet types than before, because they can afford to play them. Some of those players, as a result, are also getting smarter regarding the way they structure those tickets, so although more people are playing smarter in the verticals and causing them to pay less, there are many players still boxing, and betting horses that the public as a whole likes in the win pool. So, odds rankings are still very important in the verticals.

In some ways, determining value in the verticals is easier than for the other bet types based on win selections, because you don't have to determine odds overlays or underlays on individual horses (you don't need an odds line at all to determine value). You can just use the public's odds rankings to determine a value play. So, for Tris, Supers, and High Fives, etc., you aren't betting as blind, regarding payouts, due to not having will pays for them, you look at the odds rankings of the horses on your ticket and estimate (after you gain the experience) what the minimum payout will be, and that tells you whether the bet is worth making or not. The more high odds ranked horses you have on your ticket, the less the bet is worth. So, a tri ticket with the top 3 or 4 odds ranked horses on it is not worth betting, likewise a super ticket with the top 4 or 5 odds ranked horses on it is not worth betting.

[raybo]

Originally Posted by therussmeister

I think you are right for trifectas and supers, but not so much in exactas. However, I might be missing something here since I can get exacta prices on demand, so I spend little time attempting to predict exacta prices.

Exactas still follow the same kind of thinking by much of the general public, odds rankings, but in exactas you have the "will pays" to determine the value of those wagers for you. You could just as easily use odds rankings to determine value in exactas, your value estimations just wouldn't be as precise as the "will pays". That's why I don't play exactas, too many people are able to determine value, due to having access to the "will pays". The tris are harder to determine value by the general public, but not as hard as the supers or the high fives, and the added degree of difficulty for the public, in determining value, gives you an automatic edge over the general public, in both individual races and in the long term.

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by raybo

.....In some ways, determining value in the verticals is easier than for the other bet types based on win selections, because you don't have to determine odds overlays or underlays on individual horses (you don't need an odds line at all to determine value). You can just use the public's odds rankings to determine a value play. So, for Tris, Supers, and High Fives, etc., you aren't betting as blind, regarding payouts, due to not having will pays for them, you look at the odds rankings of the horses on your ticket and estimate (after you gain the experience) what the minimum payout will be, and that tells you whether the bet is worth making or not. The more high odds ranked horses you have on your ticket, the less the bet is worth. So, a tri ticket with the top 3 or 4 odds ranked horses on it is not worth betting, likewise a super ticket with the top 4 or 5 odds ranked horses on it is not worth betting.

Let me try to explain where I am coming from. If a horse has 10% of the win pool bet on it to win it will have a percentage very close to 10% bet on it as the top horse in an exacta. My analysis of trifectas has resulted in the same conclusion. What does this mean? It means that if a horse is an overlay in the win pool it is an overlay as a top horse in the verticals. Seeing that the top position of a vertical has the greatest affect on the overall payoff I feel comfortable that I will be making my vertical bets in a perceived overlay manner.

I don't doubt that odds rankings can have an affect on the payoffs. I doubt that the affect would be great enough to turn my top overlay into an underlay vertical bet.

One gem I found in my research was the affect of a low priced favorite (1.20 and under) in the 3rd spot of a trifecta. Let's say a horse is 1/1 and you have not included the horse in any exacta bet. If the horse does not finish 1st or 2nd what is the probability that the horse finishes 3rd? If you made a sub play by just using your exacta horses with the favorite in the 3rd slot you would be getting far more return than the added risk being taken on.

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by AndyC

One gem I found in my research was the affect of a low priced favorite (1.20 and under) in the 3rd spot of a trifecta. Let's say a horse is 1/1 and you have not included the horse in any exacta bet. If the horse does not finish 1st or 2nd what is the probability that the horse finishes 3rd? If you made a sub play by just using your exacta horses with the favorite in the 3rd slot you would be getting far more return than the added risk being taken on.

I'm in agreement with you on this. IMO, most tri players key the fav in the top 2 spots while spreading the 3rd slot with price horses. There also is a tendency for players who hate the fav and throw them completely off their tri tickets, altogether......