AP's Bounce Historically Predictable

[delayjf]

In the aftermath of AP’s lose in the Travers, I think it’s worth pointing out that AP bounce in the Travers was predictable when you consider that, historically, many champions who competed in all three triple crown events (to include winning the triple crown) also regressed in the fall of their 3yr old campaign. Below is a partial list of horses that lost / bounced after competing in all three TC races.

Secretariat

Seattle Slew

Affirmed

Alysheba

Sunday Silence

Other notable Runners

War Emblem

Funny Cide

Empire Maker

Easy Goer was one exception who went on to win 4 in row, before losing to Sunday Silence in the BC Classic. I’m not sure I would classify that effort as a bounce. Some horses above won the Haskell in their first start after the TC and dropped off in their next start (War Emblem, American Pharaoh)

Prediction – No trainer (especially Bob Baffert) will attempt the Haskell / Travers double unless one / or both tracks put some time between the two races. The Haskell could move back one week and the Travers could be moved to Labor Day week end.

[RXB]

Originally Posted by delayjf

Prediction – No trainer (especially Bob Baffert) will attempt the Haskell / Travers double unless one / or both tracks put some time between the two races. The Haskell could move back one week and the Travers could be moved to Labor Day week end.

It's not the four weeks. Horses from the Jim Dandy generally do fine in the Travers and it's held the day before the Haskell.

9f at Monmouth, strong early horses often do very well. 10f at Saratoga, not as well. Baffert has had a bushel full of Haskell winners with leader/presser types: War Emblem, Coil, Paynter, Bayern, American Pharoah. His only Travers winner was Point Given who was a different type of animal, less brilliant and more sustained/stamina. And Point Given won the Travers far more convincingly than he won the Haskell.

[ultracapper]

Running well in the spring races requires early development, and that implies early peeking. Winning the summer and fall classics for 3 year olds is often reserved for the later bloomers. Even considering the KD and the Belmont. What did anybody think of Tonalist the morning of the first Saturday in May last year? A nice win in the Peter Pan, and he's on the radar screen.

[burnsy]

I don't know. I think that race was fast and hard fought. I don't know that he bounced all that much. I tend to agree with RXB and some what Ultracapper too. RXB rightly points out that they are two different kinds of races (distance wise), on two different surfaces. Its not some kind of "bounce" coincidence that all the horses he named pretty much jogged in the Haskell but lost, most of them at low odds, in the Travers. People see a really good horse and seem to think it will win everything, every time and if they lose......its some kind of bounce. That's bunk to me and trying to make losing some "bounce science." There's clearly two differing skill sets for these modern day horses to win both races. I believe that more than some "bounce" deal.

And Ultracapper makes a point with Tonalist....there's even more examples than him blooming late. They don't rush these horses anymore. There's Curlin, Summer Bird and who can forget Blame. No one knew who he was until the end of his 3 yo year....at 4 he was a bear. People won't like this opinion but their may be a 3 yo that runs better in the Classic than AP if he makes it to that race. Keen Ice looks pretty good now, he even closed in the Haskell when he lost. I don't do numbers but the people that do have that Travers pretty high up there. Its not easy to peak early then keep up because the 3 yo's are developing later IMO. Chrome ran into this last year, Bayern kind of out gunned him late in the season.

[RXB]

Originally Posted by burnsy

I tend to agree with RXB and some what Ultracapper too. RXB rightly points out that they are two different kinds of races (distance wise), on two different surfaces. Its not some kind of "bounce" coincidence that all the horses he named pretty much jogged in the Haskell but lost, most of them at low odds, in the Travers.

I've pointed this out in the past, such as prior to the 2013 Travers when Verrazano was coming off of a romp in the Haskell and I didn't care for his chances in the Travers.

Yet I'd have to say that I didn't account for it enough in my assessment this year. Pre-Haskell, I thought American Pharoah had 80-90% of the win probability for that race. Pre-Travers, down to 60-70% but in retrospect, given the addition of Frosted and Texas Red plus the surface & distance switch, 70% was almost certainly too high and 60% probably too high. I think I was a bit too bedazzled by his last workout which looked tremendous.

[castaway01]

Originally Posted by delayjf

In the aftermath of AP’s lose in the Travers, I think it’s worth pointing out that AP bounce in the Travers was predictable when you consider that, historically, many champions who competed in all three triple crown events (to include winning the triple crown) also regressed in the fall of their 3yr old campaign. Below is a partial list of horses that lost / bounced after competing in all three TC races.

Secretariat

Seattle Slew

Affirmed

Alysheba

Sunday Silence

Other notable Runners

War Emblem

Funny Cide

Empire Maker

Easy Goer was one exception who went on to win 4 in row, before losing to Sunday Silence in the BC Classic. I’m not sure I would classify that effort as a bounce. Some horses above won the Haskell in their first start after the TC and dropped off in their next start (War Emblem, American Pharaoh)

Prediction – No trainer (especially Bob Baffert) will attempt the Haskell / Travers double unless one / or both tracks put some time between the two races. The Haskell could move back one week and the Travers could be moved to Labor Day week end.

Pointing out that most horses, even great ones, eventually lose isn't exactly breaking news.

[delayjf]

It's not the four weeks. Horses from the Jim Dandy generally do fine in the Travers and it's held the day before the Haskell.

It was not just the four weeks between the two races that hurt AP, he ran well in the TC on less rest. But I believe it was a factor for AP given his performance in the TC and running in the Haskell. The totality of his efforts finally caught up to him. In AP's case, he would have benefitted from more time between the Haskell and the Travers.

If a horse skipped the TC or only ran in one or even two of the TC races, than the 4 weeks probably won't hurt that horsed chances in the Travers (i.e Street Sence). Frosted skipped the Preakness and Texas Red never competed in the TC.

[delayjf]

Pointing out that most horses, even great ones, eventually lose isn't exactly breaking news.

Perhaps not and admittedly their could be a lot of factors that lead to the horses on the list getting beat - but in this case, history keeps repeating itself. Despite the trend, I didn't hear anyone posing the possibility that AP might be vulnerable leading up to this race.

[Cratos]

Originally Posted by delayjf

In the aftermath of AP’s lose in the Travers, I think it’s worth pointing out that AP bounce in the Travers was predictable when you consider that, historically, many champions who competed in all three triple crown events (to include winning the triple crown) also regressed in the fall of their 3yr old campaign. Below is a partial list of horses that lost / bounced after competing in all three TC races.

Secretariat

Seattle Slew

Affirmed

Alysheba

Sunday Silence

Other notable Runners

War Emblem

Funny Cide

Empire Maker

Easy Goer was one exception who went on to win 4 in row, before losing to Sunday Silence in the BC Classic. I’m not sure I would classify that effort as a bounce. Some horses above won the Haskell in their first start after the TC and dropped off in their next start (War Emblem, American Pharaoh)

Prediction – No trainer (especially Bob Baffert) will attempt the Haskell / Travers double unless one / or both tracks put some time between the two races. The Haskell could move back one week and the Travers could be moved to Labor Day week end.

Give me a break!! A horse loses a race by less than a length or .11 seconds (Trakus metric) and you post some undefinable metric you call “bounce” and you attempt to put it into an historical perspective.

Question: “What if Castellano on Keen Ice would have moved his horse one-fifth second slower?” And everything happened the same; we would now be speaking of a gallant effort by American Pharoah and that is what we should be saying today.

[garyscpa]

Originally Posted by Cratos

Give me a break!! A horse loses a race by less than a length or .11 seconds (Trakus metric) and you post some undefinable metric you call “bounce” and you attempt to put it into an historical perspective.

Question: “What if Castellano on Keen Ice would have moved his horse one-fifth second slower?” And everything happened the same; we would now be speaking of a gallant effort by American Pharoah and that is what we should be saying today.

I have to say that I think this is incorrect. Keen Ice wasn't going zero fps before Castellano moved him. So the difference of one fifth of a second in the move only applies to any increase in fps after the move.

Agree about the bounce though.

[Cratos]

Originally Posted by garyscpa

I have to say that I think this is incorrect. Keen Ice wasn't going zero fps before Castellano moved him. So the difference of one fifth of a second in the move only applies to any increase in fps after the move.

Agree about the bounce though.

You are correct I incorrectly used used a static example to arrive at a dynamic conclusion.

[NY BRED]

CAN'T FIND THIS ANSWER,PERHAPS SOMEONE HERE CAN PROVIDE
THE ANSWER;


HAS ANY HORSE EVER SWEPT THE TRIPLE CROWN/HASKELL /TRAVERS?

I BELIEVE THIS ANSWER IS NO.

PRESUMING THIS TO BE THE CASE,AP CAME CLOSE, SO ANY HORSE
IN THE FUTURE TRYING THE SWEEP THIS FIVE BAGGER MUST
BEAT A 2ND PLACE FINISH IN THE TRAVERS ,WHICH WILL PROBABLY
BE A DIFFICULT TASK IN YEARS TO COME..

[davew]

I scratch my head about a bounce as well

AP ran a good race, just got more pressure at a point in the race he was not used to and used up much of his reserve.

[delayjf]

Give me a break!! A horse loses a race by less than a length or .11 seconds (Trakus metric) and you post some undefinable metric you call “bounce” and you attempt to put it into an historical perspective.

Question: “What if Castellano on Keen Ice would have moved his horse one-fifth second slower?” And everything happened the same; we would now be speaking of a gallant effort by American Pharoah and that is what we should be saying today.

I'm not trying to be overly scientific here. But I don't think it's a stretch to assume that the exertion of competing (especially if each race is a taxing effort) in the TC can carry into the fall. In AP case I would define a bounce as a regression in performance compared to previous efforts in the Haskell and the triple crown. According to CJ figures, AP's performance in the Travers was below his performance in the Haskell. I have not seen the Beyer figure for the race, so I don't know how they compare. How did AP's performance in the Travers rate with your figures in his other races?

[LottaKash]

Originally Posted by delayjf

. But I don't think it's a stretch to assume that the exertion of competing (especially if each race is a taxing effort) in the TC can carry into the fall.

I agree...I am a close watcher in any particular horse's "form cycle", and I do not think of bounce, when I look at AP's run in the Travers...All I saw was a horse that was a tad short from his effort....Happens to the best of em'...

As an aside, when I saw the abrupt and intended late slowdown in the Haskell, I raised my eyebrow a bit, as I see that sort of thing as a "traindown", rather than trying to remain at or near peak/sharp a level....I think that horses being creatures of training and racing habits, it kinda of sent a message to AP that this is how we race you, as in, you don't have to try your guts out...

He is an outstanding horse all the same imo, and I still believe that he has way more in the tank than has been shown to date... A Tough Racing/Training/Travelling schedule is all the info that I gathered from that effort, and given that, AP was more than entitled to the slight letdown at the wire.....