software comparison - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

green80 · 08-19-2015, 11:05 AM

Has anyone ever done a comparison of the many handicapping software packages on the market today? I know this would have to be the black box type as the ones with user input would have as many different results as it does users. Maybe what software works best out of the box would be the better question.

NorCalGreg · 08-21-2015, 01:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by green80

Has anyone ever done a comparison of the many handicapping software packages on the market today? I know this would have to be the black box type as the ones with user input would have as many different results as it does users. Maybe what software works best out of the box would be the better question.

Pretty sure an honest evaluation has never been done. If a well-respected person, consortium, firm, group, whatever, got together and asked for software submittals for just such a test...they'd get MAYBE half dozen, you think? I heard more than one program writer blame the users--we didn't use the program properly. Well whose fault is that? Do a better job of explaining the sumbitch.
Anyway G-80...someone has a poll going at this time about which 'capping software people are using--some surprising results. Later-NCG

TonyMLake · 08-25-2015, 07:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by green80

Has anyone ever done a comparison of the many handicapping software packages on the market today? I know this would have to be the black box type as the ones with user input would have as many different results as it does users. Maybe what software works best out of the box would be the better question.

We tried that. There were only three or four software developers who were willing to expose their apps for the comparison; Raybo and I were the two I remember, but I think a couple of others were willing as well.

We never really reached a good set of operational definitions - for example, as you alluded to above, what even constitutes "Black Box"?

I'd be interested in a "contest" with any of the software out there using the Handicapper Plus Algorithm at the default settings as long as my software only bets on the races HandicapperPlus calls "High Confidence" races.

Raybo wanted a different race selection algorithm for obvious and legitimate reasons, but that constituted another small barrier. I don't see why we couldn't just "pick 500 races from a season" or something to solve that issue.

How soon should the bets be made before the race? Obviously, we need to post the bets ahead of time.

These are small issues that came up. I think it was Raybo(?) who pointed out that by the time we reached a statistically significant reflection of a real ROI, well, let's just say the contest would take too long for most people to maintain interest... but If anyone is willing to work together to hammer out the rules, HandicapperPlus will play ON IT'S OWN, AS A BLACK BOX.

atlasaxis · 08-25-2015, 08:59 PM

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...=black+contest

TonyMLake · 08-25-2015, 11:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by atlasaxis

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...=black+contest

Didn't know about that one. We were talking about it a couple months ago as well.

By the way, what happened after the first day five years ago?

raybo · 08-26-2015, 02:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TonyMLake

Didn't know about that one. We were talking about it a couple months ago as well.

By the way, what happened after the first day five years ago?

Handifast won the "true" black box category (1.26 ROI ?), AllData PPs (the free program, not my current Black Box) finished 2nd (1.24 ROI - went "0 fer" at Aqueduct

)

pandy · 08-26-2015, 07:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by green80

Has anyone ever done a comparison of the many handicapping software packages on the market today? I know this would have to be the black box type as the ones with user input would have as many different results as it does users. Maybe what software works best out of the box would be the better question.

I've been posting the top ranked pick for all races (except races with several first time starters) from my system (Diamond System) for Del Mar and Saratoga all this meet at http://www.handicappingwinners.com/free_picks.htm

You have to scroll down the page because I've also been testing a new method which is near the top of the page.

Both meets have a profitable ROI. What's interesting, too, a couple of weeks ago I started posting alternative picks, usually either the second or third ranked horse, whichever has the longer odds, and they are showing a profit, too. I've also been posting top two early and late speeds from the consensus box feature.

DeltaLover · 08-26-2015, 08:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pandy

I've been posting the top ranked pick for all races (except races with several first time starters) from my system (Diamond System) for Del Mar and Saratoga all this meet at http://www.handicappingwinners.com/free_picks.htm

You have to scroll down the page because I've also been testing a new method which is near the top of the page.

Both meets have a profitable ROI. What's interesting, too, a couple of weeks ago I started posting alternative picks, usually either the second or third ranked horse, whichever has the longer odds, and they are showing a profit, too. I've also been posting top two early and late speeds from the consensus box feature.

So, where we can see your picks for today and the rest of the week?

pandy · 08-26-2015, 09:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DeltaLover

So, where we can see your picks for today and the rest of the week?

The picks are posted, you have to scroll down to get past the test for the new method. It's nothing fancy, just today's date and a number for each pick but the picks are there.

http://www.handicappingwinners.com/free_picks.htm

DeltaLover · 08-26-2015, 09:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pandy

The picks are posted, you have to scroll down to get past the test for the new method. It's nothing fancy, just today's date and a number for each pick but the picks are there.

http://www.handicappingwinners.com/free_picks.htm

ok

punteray · 08-26-2015, 12:21 PM

How does the program determine a "high confidence " race?

TonyMLake · 08-26-2015, 12:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by raybo

Handifast won the "true" black box category (1.26 ROI ?), AllData PPs (the free program, not my current Black Box) finished 2nd (1.24 ROI - went "0 fer" at Aqueduct

)

Incredible returns, there. I'm impressed. How many trials?

pandy · 08-26-2015, 12:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by punteray

How does the program determine a "high confidence " race?

If you're talking about my program, it would depend on a couple of factors, the point spread advantage being one, but there are a couple of other ways to run the system to quantify the strength of the top pick. For instance, these picks are based on best of last 3 which means that it could have used the third line back. If I run option Q it gives me each horse's last two races. If the horse is also highly ranked based on its last two races, that increases the likelihood of the horse winning the race. That's just one of the way to determine how strong the top pick is. Of course, when it picks a $60 winner on top that horse rarely looks like a high confidence play.

raybo · 08-26-2015, 01:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TonyMLake

Incredible returns, there. I'm impressed. How many trials?

Just 6 specified tracks, 1 track on each of 6 consecutive days, bet all races on the card, 1 pick per race (and maybe one alternate should your pick scratch?), $2 flat bet to win, best ROI wins.

raybo · 08-26-2015, 01:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by raybo

Just 6 specified tracks, 1 track on each of 6 consecutive days, bet all races on the card, 1 pick per race (and maybe one alternate should your pick scratch?), $2 flat bet to win, best ROI wins.

I posted some of the individual day's results here, starting with post #11: http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...ad.php?t=65749