Fig players have finally lost it

[EMD4ME]

. Of course a dead rail is an opinion. Usually forwarded by people who lost that day and need an excuse after the fact. [/QUOTE]

I must first say, I enjoyed reading much of what you wrote.

Question about the above quote. You're kidding, right?

If you're not, how about asking the MountainMan about the excessive dead inside 5 PATHS recently......and if he lost and was just making it up . (For the record MNR has had some amazingly dead rails recently....)

[RarifiedAir]

I see my knowledge of pace is being challenged. Tell you what i'll do... I don't normally do this... I find it demeaning that I would explain myself or that in some way I need to impress the people here. But because it applies directly to the context of my post I'm going to run the tape of that race again and explain pace the way I see it and how it applies to that race. I'll get back to everyone shortly.

[v j stauffer]

Originally Posted by DeltaLover

What is interesting, is not what you believe about the sheets or any other analogous metric but if there exists a methodology to compare them and rank them based in how good they are.

A blanket statement, like the one you are making here, is completely useless for anyone else except yourself, unless you can back it with some convincing data.

Comparing figures, is not a simple process and the required skills to design a valid comparison algorithm, clearly are not there when it comes to the makers of either Ragozin or Thorograph..

To add my own belief, Rags, Thorograph and beyer are all antiquated approaches that failed to evolve to the modern era of computing and big data science...

Although I do not have a huge experience with them, I also believe, that the best commercial figures money can buy are CJ's TimeformUS...

Obviously the last and final arbiter of success is Mr. Mutual Clerk. His W/L figures are the ONLY ones that really matter. How we get there. What we believe is exclusive unto ourselves.

Only ONE thing matters. Are we winning or losing players. Period.

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by RarifiedAir

So I'm watching TVG this morning and the US timeform fig guy comes on. They are comparing the one the only the great Pharoah to some horse who ran in the Whitney... AND LOST. The fig guy is giving this losing horse the same fig as pharoah from his last race and so the TVG "experts" start analyzing as they are known to do. I don't lose it at this point... yet... even though the comparison is a bit inane. But here is where I lose it. The losing horse from the Whitney is given 5 MORE POINTS than the WINNING HORSE! And they actually talk about this with straight faces. They say the losing horse did more in the race than the winning horse. You know its over for fig people when "the fig" is the be all end all... damn any logic that might interfere with it.

Anyway... for any of you people who use timeform figs... beware of this losing horse and its insane number.

I understand your logic. I am a fan of just give me the number based upon final time and the variant.

I like to subtract and add to it based upon track biases, trips, weight etc. myself as I don't want someone else's opinion on bias or trip.

However, CJ and his team do a service to many people (I don't know as I don't use them, maybe I will one day) by doing the adjustments for people. There are people who appreciate the advanced fig.

[RarifiedAir]

Originally Posted by cj

But you listened to the spot today. It was.discussed in depth how Liam's Map was given a higher number. It is fine that you don't agree. But how could you watch and not know the why?

Fair question. I have a fair answer. Like I said I was on the olyptical well anyway... I don't know if it really makes a difference...

Here is my point... I don't agree with the figs under any circumstances thus... whatever was discussed would not and could not make any difference in my opinion. you see where I am coming from?

[RarifiedAir]

Originally Posted by cj

Do you even know what 5 to 6 points represents? Before I go criticizing something I learn all I can about it first.

Do you think we'd do figures this way if there wasn't a benefit? One of our employees questioned this, as he should, thinking we might be adjusting too much for pace. Guess what? We aren't. If anything, we are too conservative. The bigger the pace adjustment the better the ROI while won percentage remained stable for top fig horses.

ok you have me there. let me be more clear then. throw out the point differential. i don't think honor code should get the smaller number in this case no matter the differential.

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by RarifiedAir

Fair question. I have a fair answer. Like I said I was on the olyptical well anyway... I don't know if it really makes a difference...

Here is my point... I don't agree with the figs under any circumstances thus... whatever was discussed would not and could not make any difference in my opinion. you see where I am coming from?

We all get distracted while on here. Kids, work, friends, sick family members, etc.

I respect that.

I agree, it's ok to disagree.

My question is the same as CJ's. Do you see why the number was made?

Do you see that pace was the largest reason for the adjustment?

Do you see that Timeform adjusts for pace?

Not being sarcastic pal. Just asking to see if you see their logic/foundation for numbers?

I see your view point. Do you see theirs?

[RarifiedAir]

Originally Posted by cj

What is a fig player anyway? Is that the mythical person that blindly bets every best figure horse?

ya kinda... or eats a lot of fig newtons. its still being debated.

[v j stauffer]

Originally Posted by EMD4ME

. Of course a dead rail is an opinion. Usually forwarded by people who lost that day and need an excuse after the fact.

I must first say, I enjoyed reading much of what you wrote.

Question about the above quote. You're kidding, right?

If you're not, how about asking the MountainMan about the excessive dead inside 5 PATHS recently......and if he lost and was just making it up . (For the record MNR has had some amazingly dead rails recently....)[/QUOTE]

I've heard Mountain Man speak eloquently about dead rails. I've seen the jockeys at the Mountain avoid it like the plague. But at the end of the day it's still only opinion. Is the opinion correct? I expect in Mark's case more often that not the answer is yes. But he's a rare exception. IMO most players fabricate it as a crutch, and excuse for why they didn't win. Never considering that they might have just been wrong for whatever reason. Players that will NEVER win are the ones that cannot look within as to why they lost. It never occurs to them that there might not BE an excuse. That the real truth lies in their preparation, work ethic, expertise, experience, lack of ego, patience, discipline and about 500 other factors.

If one is a real horseplayer they should tell me how the dead rail either tonight or in the future will make me win more. Rather than looking for after the fact excuses.

[v j stauffer]

Originally Posted by RarifiedAir

Fair question. I have a fair answer. Like I said I was on the olyptical well anyway... I don't know if it really makes a difference...

Here is my point... I don't agree with the figs under any circumstances thus... whatever was discussed would not and could not make any difference in my opinion. you see where I am coming from?

Yes. An ATM machine.

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by v j stauffer

I must first say, I enjoyed reading much of what you wrote.

Question about the above quote. You're kidding, right?

If you're not, how about asking the MountainMan about the excessive dead inside 5 PATHS recently......and if he lost and was just making it up . (For the record MNR has had some amazingly dead rails recently....)

I've heard Mountain Man speak eloquently about dead rails. I've seen the jockeys at the Mountain avoid it like the plague. But at the end of the day it's still only opinion. Is the opinion correct? I expect in Mark's case more often that not the answer is yes. But he's a rare exception. IMO most players fabricate it as a crutch, and excuse for why they didn't win. Never considering that they might have just been wrong for whatever reason. Players that will NEVER win are the ones that cannot look within as to why they lost. It never occurs to them that there might not BE an excuse. That the real truth lies in their preparation, work ethic, expertise, experience, lack of ego, patience, discipline and about 500 other factors.

If one is a real horseplayer they should tell me how the dead rail either tonight or in the future will make me win more. Rather than looking for after the fact excuses.[/QUOTE]

I agree, the feable minds that are conditioned to losing do come up with any excuse in the book to justify their losses.

I agree, a real horseplayer will always put ego aside, analyze a race as intently AFTER the race, preperation is key. I know I need 4-5 days in some cases to properly analyze 1 CARD! I re watch every replay, re check figs, re check charts, etc. etc. etc.

To reply to your last thought, using MNR as example, the answer is easy and I'm sure you know it. There was a horse who ran Monday night in race 2. He won against a super dead inside in his prior start. He overcame the huge bias to win in that prior start. He went off at 1/1. I'm not touting a 1/1 but he was already tons the best on paper. Factor in the win against the bias, he was 1/9 in my eyes. He won. That's a prime play where his figure on most services was way below his prior runs. People could have been scared off by his last 'fig'. People that knew the rail was dead and he overcame it (and a loose wide speed horse who led comfortable the whole way) in his last start, could've easily bet him with supreme confidence in his next start.

[RarifiedAir]

Originally Posted by EMD4ME

I understand your logic. I am a fan of just give me the number based upon final time and the variant.

I like to subtract and add to it based upon track biases, trips, weight etc. myself as I don't want someone else's opinion on bias or trip.

However, CJ and his team do a service to many people (I don't know as I don't use them, maybe I will one day) by doing the adjustments for people. There are people who appreciate the advanced fig.

I'm not bashing this cj person. Far from it actually.

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by RarifiedAir

I'm not bashing this cj person. Far from it actually.

I know that RarifiedAir. Never thought that. I don't think anyone does.

[RarifiedAir]

Originally Posted by EMD4ME

We all get distracted while on here. Kids, work, friends, sick family members, etc.

I respect that.

I agree, it's ok to disagree.

My question is the same as CJ's. Do you see why the number was made?

Do you see that pace was the largest reason for the adjustment?

Do you see that Timeform adjusts for pace?

Not being sarcastic pal. Just asking to see if you see their logic/foundation for numbers?

I see your view point. Do you see theirs?

Do you see why the number was made? No
Do you see that pace was the largest reason for the adjustment? No
Do you see that Timeform adjusts for pace? No
I see your view point. Do you see theirs? No

Does anyone have any questions?

[RarifiedAir]

Originally Posted by v j stauffer

Yes. An ATM machine.

Noooo... I'm at home but... nice try I guess.