Whales a myth?

[RarifiedAir]

I read every so often about so called whales and it doesn't add up to me. So you take this whale... he's making huge bets. Well huge bets doesn't equate to winning. You don't magically start winning because you bet more money. There's just more money in the pools. But this whale he's betting a lot of money so he gets a rebate. So this is what's making the whale all kinds of money? The people giving the rebate would be out of business. Like I said I don't get the logic here. Are there whales? Ya I'm sure there are. Lots of fat people play the races. In the spectrum of physical health on one end there are people who workout regularly and eat healthy and on the other end there are horse players. Its not a slam just a fact. So ya there are whales. And back in the day when smoking was everywhere... it was whale city.

[Stillriledup]

[YT=""]Z81k6u7pc4Y[/YT]

They're not a myth.

[castaway01]

Originally Posted by RarifiedAir

I read every so often about so called whales and it doesn't add up to me. So you take this whale... he's making huge bets. Well huge bets doesn't equate to winning. You don't magically start winning because you bet more money. There's just more money in the pools. But this whale he's betting a lot of money so he gets a rebate. So this is what's making the whale all kinds of money? The people giving the rebate would be out of business. Like I said I don't get the logic here. Are there whales? Ya I'm sure there are. Lots of fat people play the races. In the spectrum of physical health on one end there are people who workout regularly and eat healthy and on the other end there are horse players. Its not a slam just a fact. So ya there are whales. And back in the day when smoking was everywhere... it was whale city.

You could do a simple search in this forum and find plenty of posts from people like Dave Schwartz who know or work with these "whales" and save yourself the time of typing nonsense.

[Hoofless_Wonder]

One challenge to trying to understand the existence, or logic, of whales is the secrecy surrounding who they are, and what rebates they do receive. It's an "insider's club", and most of us aren't allowed in the door.

There have been many posts on the forum where it's claimed whales (and minnows) get into the black via rebates, though one would think a well organized team would be in the black regardless. "The people" giving the rebates don't go out of business, but since their arrangement between the host track and the players (including whales) is not made public, it's open to debate what effect this has on the game overall.

It's an old and tirade argument, but I'm in the camp of improving the game by banning rebates, or at least making them public. If it were mandated to publish where the dollars where going, in theory the minnows could gravitate to the tracks with the lowest takeout....

[Track Collector]

Whales don't wager a lot of money because they have a lot of money, they do so because they have a SUCCESSFUL handicapping methodology and a positive edge on the game. (Yes, rebates make this possible.).

They obviously crunch the numbers in unique ways, and they mix in subjective factors (like physicality) not available to the general public or very difficult to evaluate to achieve their success.

Whales are largely unknown because they are about their business of making money from their edge, and not about the business of making a name for themselves.

BTW the "Insider club" is really not much different than with other businesses. In the case of racing, improve your handicapping to the level where you can increase your yearly wagering handle to specific levels, which would then qualify you for the "upper" level of rebates. It is really that simplistic (AND HARD)!!

[thaskalos]

The "Whales" are not a myth...but the amounts that they are supposedly winning have surely reached mythical proportions.

I do find myself in disagreement with those who claim that whales can be found in the wagering pools of each and every track in the country. I was watching Canterbury and Prairie Meadows yesterday...and the ridiculously low mutuel pools there belied the existence of any true whales among the wagering crowd.

There is talk on this board about the great job that Canterbury is doing attracting those big crowds to the track. Don't these people ever bet?

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by RarifiedAir

But this whale he's betting a lot of money so he gets a rebate. So this is what's making the whale all kinds of money? The people giving the rebate would be out of business.

You need to do some research on the subject...

Rebates are possible because takeout rates are high enough to allow an ADW to offer a rebate and still make money on the whale's action...

[green80]

Originally Posted by RarifiedAir

I read every so often about so called whales and it doesn't add up to me. So you take this whale... he's making huge bets. Well huge bets doesn't equate to winning. You don't magically start winning because you bet more money. There's just more money in the pools. But this whale he's betting a lot of money so he gets a rebate. So this is what's making the whale all kinds of money? The people giving the rebate would be out of business. Like I said I don't get the logic here. Are there whales? Ya I'm sure there are. Lots of fat people play the races. In the spectrum of physical health on one end there are people who workout regularly and eat healthy and on the other end there are horse players. Its not a slam just a fact. So ya there are whales. And back in the day when smoking was everywhere... it was whale city.

The otb's make a % of the money that they handle. Whales bet more money so the otb takes their cut. The more one bets the more they make, makes no difference win or lose. The whales don't win all the time.

[green80]

Originally Posted by Hoofless_Wonder

One challenge to trying to understand the existence, or logic, of whales is the secrecy surrounding who they are, and what rebates they do receive. It's an "insider's club", and most of us aren't allowed in the door.

There have been many posts on the forum where it's claimed whales (and minnows) get into the black via rebates, though one would think a well organized team would be in the black regardless. "The people" giving the rebates don't go out of business, but since their arrangement between the host track and the players (including whales) is not made public, it's open to debate what effect this has on the game overall.

It's an old and tirade argument, but I'm in the camp of improving the game by banning rebates, or at least making them public. If it were mandated to publish where the dollars where going, in theory the minnows could gravitate to the tracks with the lowest takeout....

Tracks with the lowest takeout are the same ones that have the lowest rebates. I have found no relation to the low takeout tracks and making money. My wagering records show making no more profit at the low takeout tracks than the higher takeout tracks.Bet where you win regardless of the takeout rate.

[cj]

Originally Posted by green80

Tracks with the lowest takeout are the same ones that have the lowest rebates.

It used to be that way, but not really any longer. It is a combination of takeout and signal cost. The highest level tracks have the highest signal cost.

[Hoofless_Wonder]

Originally Posted by green80

Tracks with the lowest takeout are the same ones that have the lowest rebates. I have found no relation to the low takeout tracks and making money. My wagering records show making no more profit at the low takeout tracks than the higher takeout tracks.Bet where you win regardless of the takeout rate.

It's easy to see how one's handicapping approach can vary more between tracks than the takeout. But just because you cash more tickets at HIGHTAKEOUT Downs doesn't mean you're not getting the shaft.

I'm willing to reward the tracks that would lower takeout, and take the time to learn their circuit and improve my handicapping there - in the same vein I wager more money at Hong Kong due to their drug free and formful racing.

[Seabiscuit@AR]

RarefiedAir

As others have said on the thread whales do exist. The reason the ADWs don't go broke is that the other non rebate players pay for the rebates not the ADW (via reduced odds on whatever the whale backs). In any case, with the biggest whales generally the whale and the ADW are the same person (hidden behind a corporate veil). So the whale owns the ADW that pays the rebates

[Stillriledup]

Originally Posted by Seabiscuit@AR

RarefiedAir

As others have said on the thread whales do exist. The reason the ADWs don't go broke is that the other non rebate players pay for the rebates not the ADW (via reduced odds on whatever the whale backs). In any case, with the biggest whales generally the whale and the ADW are the same person (hidden behind a corporate veil). So the whale owns the ADW that pays the rebates

How are the odds reduced for the non rebate player? Isn't the non rebate player getting odds that are calculated using the tracks own takeout rate?

[Seabiscuit@AR]

If I back Secretariat for $100 a whale might decide Secretariat is value at the last second. In a world of no rebates the whale might be able to bet $1000 on Secretariat to keep him at a value price. In a world of rebates the whale might be able to bet $10000 to keep him at a value price. That extra $9000 bet by the whale will crush Secretariat's odds lower and so I will get a lower return on my $100 than I would otherwise

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Huge bettors exist. (AKA Whales)

How they don't exist seems senseless to me.

Do all the massive bettors win? Hell no.

You have guys like Michael Jordan, and Charles Barkley, and Floyd Mayweather with huge amounts of money making poor wager after poor wager all the time. And for large dollars. Hundreds of thousands at a time. And they most certainly lose more than they win. They are the reason why Vegas and any OTB, or race track, or ADW joint absolutely loves big time players, because just like the masses, they lose 98% of the time. And when they lose, they can keep firing, and firing, and firing, with an almost unlimited bankroll.

On the other hand, there are whales that make large bets and do win. There aren't many. But they do exist.

There are also big time players that exist at every major track that make a solid living wagering on a single circuit or two. They may not be "whales" per say, but they most certainly scratch out 6 figure salaries year in and year out and can and will change odds on horses. I'm 100% sure a number of guys on this board know a few here and there, and I'm damn sure there are some posting among these threads.