Most "tradable" futures contract? - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

PaceAdvantage · 08-04-2015, 09:52 AM

I've been observing the Russell 2000 (TF) E-mini futures contract for a few days now, and it seems it gives more "genuine" signals than say the ES or NQ...

I traded the Nasdaq (NQ) for a while, but it always seems to give back a lot of whatever gains you happen to make on a trade before the exit signal arrives.

Anyone out there trade futures and happen to agree with my limited observation of TF?

I'm going to try and keep away from trading futures, as it has been THE LEAK in my trading game...but that allure of fast money hasn't lost it's grip entirely on me yet...but I'm getting there...

barn32 · 08-04-2015, 10:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

I've been observing the Russell 2000 (TF) E-mini futures contract for a few days now, and it seems it gives more "genuine" signals than say the ES or NQ...

What are these "signals" that you refer to?

PaceAdvantage · 08-04-2015, 11:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by barn32

What are these "signals" that you refer to?

My own...

It just seems that there are less fakeouts with the TF...but that just might be because I am looking at a relatively long tick timeline (3200 ticks) and the fact that the TF trades a lot slower than either ES or NQ makes that tick chart look more formful...

To provide an equal comparison between ES and NQ, I should be knocking down the TF tick chart to 1600....

barn32 · 08-04-2015, 11:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

My own...

It just seems that there are less fakeouts with the TF...but that just might be because I am looking at a relatively long tick timeline (3200 ticks) and the fact that the TF trades a lot slower than either ES or NQ makes that tick chart look more formful...

To provide an equal comparison between ES and NQ, I should be knocking down the TF tick chart to 1600....

Tick chart? I just use the 1 minute and 5 minute charts on TOS for most of my trading. The 1 minute is my go to chart.

I've had TF on my watch list for some time now. It trades pre and after market, so it helps you to get a line on what the RUT will do later on. That's all I see it as.

Meanwhile, the NASDAQ is trying to drag down the ES, but the ES is fighting tooth and nail. It wants to go up. But with AAPL down ~5 it's going to be a tough sell.

PaceAdvantage · 08-04-2015, 11:25 AM

The problem with the 1 and 5 minute charts, especially on contracts such as TF that don't trade as much volume as say ES, is that you can get an "ugly" looking chart at times, especially in the overnight and after hours portion of the day...

The tick charts smooth everything out nicely...

barn32 · 08-04-2015, 11:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

The problem with the 1 and 5 minute charts, especially on contracts such as TF that don't trade as much volume as say ES, is that you can get an "ugly" looking chart at times, especially in the overnight and after hours portion of the day...

The tick charts smooth everything out nicely...

I've never traded the TF. I have traded the RUT. But the problem with the RUT is that you can make it or lose it FAST!

I prefer the ES and once in a while the NQ. I have a good feel for these two, so no need to branch out too much.

The RUT/TF just seems to have a mind of its own.

Hoofless_Wonder · 08-04-2015, 01:01 PM

While I believe the /TF may provide some short term direction and be more sensitive when the market is indecisive (like today), there's no way I can trade it with any confidence versus the /ES. The volume just isn't there. But I concentrate more on swing trades, where I may hold contracts for a day or two or three versus minutes or hours.

The /ES is behaving quite nicely now, bouncing between the 50 and 61.8 Fibs. I'm leaning towards a break below 2084 or so, followed by some short term bouncing around. When it breaks below 2080 or so, it's off to the races and a retest of the 2035 low from back in early July.

Tape Reader · 08-04-2015, 06:29 PM

I don’t use indicators/oscillators/Etc., but two things that I have learned are:

1. If I have something that works on one instrument/time frame and not another, I have something that doesn’t work.

2. Just as in the ocean, stock market waves do not come in “set sizes.”

parlay · 08-04-2015, 07:40 PM

i have just started trading SPX options. i am straight up gambling, and i know it. Today they tanked the market (for puts) in the last 15 minutes but i left my sell on some puts out there. After hours(i am assuming) they drove the market back down and i was taken out. very peculiar trading, clearly VERY BIG MONEY has an interest in how this opens and closes. i am having fun with this, probably because i have been lucky and made a few bucks. Ask me again next week

PaceAdvantage · 08-06-2015, 02:11 PM

I had a signal this morning to short TF right around the open...I took the signal but quickly bailed after only 7 ticks of profit...why did I bail? Did I get an exit signal?

Yeah, I got an exit signal...about an hour ago...LOL

No, I bailed way early because I SUCK at trading futures...STILL...

I sat back and watched my 9:30 signal make about $2000 per contract in profit WITHOUT ME...

Hoofless_Wonder · 08-06-2015, 02:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

I had a signal this morning to short TF right around the open...I took the signal but quickly bailed after only 7 ticks of profit...why did I bail? Did I get an exit signal?

Yeah, I got an exit signal...about an hour ago...LOL

No, I bailed way early because I SUCK at trading futures...STILL...

I sat back and watched my 9:30 signal make about $2000 per contract in profit WITHOUT ME...

Yeah, futures ain't easy. especially if you working. Got stopped out of my <short> /ES trade early today when the pumpers ran the stops about 7:30 AM EDT. Put it back on just before the open, and rode it down to the first 50% fib, then had to get on a couple of conference calls. Next thing I know runs down below the 38.2 fib. D'oh!

The market seems very heavy now, and twitchy with lots of overthrows, underthrows and headfakes. Tough to be long here......

Tape Reader · 08-06-2015, 07:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

I had a signal this morning to short TF right around the open...I took the signal but quickly bailed after only 7 ticks of profit...why did I bail? Did I get an exit signal?

Yeah, I got an exit signal...about an hour ago...LOL

No, I bailed way early because I SUCK at trading futures...STILL...

I sat back and watched my 9:30 signal make about $2000 per contract in profit WITHOUT ME...

If your signal gives you a target area perhaps you could try this:

When I am making an “above my anxiety level” bet, I buy SPY weekly options and calculate what the option would be worth at my target area. I then back off a bit and place the exit order.

I then go play golf or something. I think it works well with a horseplayer’s mentality. You know, box it and head for the bar.

barn32 · 08-11-2015, 08:53 PM

There is a good site at Bloomberg, if you're not already using it for market news and what-not. I'm not much for news, but you should pay attention to certain things I guess--mainly so you won't get surprised.

So I open up Bloomberg this morning and I see that China has devalued their currency by 2%. Oh boy! The markets are going to be down big today!

So I immediately put on a short (NQ) pre-market and scalp for about 9 ticks. I keep doing this mainly from the short side exiting when I think I've made enough.

I even traded some bonds today (NZ). The bonds were going up, the futures were going down. But the futures, pre-market anyway, were going up and down.

So, I'm doing OK, and I put on yet one more short and it goes against me around $200, but I'm not too worried and it eventually comes back...but I get nervous and get out about $50 winner. (The last trade on the screen shot.) Well, that was the exact point where the market went 50 points lower! I make 3 points instead of ~53. And I knew it was going to happen!

Point is, I suck at trading futures, we all suck at trading futures. They are nerve wracking. They can turn against you on a dime and go the other way without stopping. This happened to me last Friday. I was up 1K and ended up losing 1.4K. I was like a deer in the headlights thinking it had to eventually turn around, but it didn't.

Normally, when the market is tanking, or shooting to the upside I just jump in and tag along. But today, not wanting to get trapped, I just scalped conservatively, made what I thought was enough, and just watched it tank without me. If I had any balls at all I could have easily made two or three thousand dollars, but as it was I made around $700 (11 trades, all winners), and I'm telling myself over and over to just be happy with that--and I am.

You can't always pick the tops or the bottoms, nor can you always win the maximum or lose the minimum.

I've have learned the very hard way you just have to be happy with what you can get.

And above all...don't get greedy.

Hoofless_Wonder · 08-12-2015, 01:16 AM

Had a nice day today being short early, and catching the late day pump long for 8 handles. Thought about getting short again in the /ES at 2083/2083, and thought, "Naw, let's not get greedy. Maybe the upward trend will continue, or maybe it'll reverse here at the 50% Fib."

At 9:00 PM EDT tonight the bottom fell out again, and one big red candle punched through the 38.2 Fib and an upward trend line. Plunge went to 2065 and now bouncing a bit. D'oh! Another long term upward trend line around 2060 should provide support here too, but if not - look out below.....looks like 2070-2072 is a good place to get short again....

With this kind of volatility you've got to stay glued to the screen. Can't even hardly take time to use the jake....

highnote · 08-27-2015, 03:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

I've been observing the Russell 2000 (TF) E-mini futures contract for a few days now, and it seems it gives more "genuine" signals than say the ES or NQ...

I traded the Nasdaq (NQ) for a while, but it always seems to give back a lot of whatever gains you happen to make on a trade before the exit signal arrives.

Anyone out there trade futures and happen to agree with my limited observation of TF?

I'm going to try and keep away from trading futures, as it has been THE LEAK in my trading game...but that allure of fast money hasn't lost it's grip entirely on me yet...but I'm getting there...

The one book you might like for trading futures is called "Trading Futures for a Living" by a Dr. Elder -- psychologist. He uses charts and indicators a lot. It might be worth reading.