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Old 08-09-2015, 01:46 AM   #61
davew
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Me too...this horse is indeed something special. He's scared me from day 1, but I've always bet against...

But I respect the hell out of him, and enjoy debating as well as taking it all in...
I think everyone feels AP is a special horse. When he has decent competition and goes off at 1/9, that is probably an underlay and value can be found elsewhere.

It is hard to tell how much more he could give if he really needed too. We have seen him give a quick spurt and then coast a few times now.
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Old 08-09-2015, 01:53 AM   #62
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Originally Posted by cj
Honor Code ran a 125 today, Liam's Map a 130 in defeat, Tonalist a 123.
Seems fair.

LM did all the work today and ran an absolute MONSTER. Hope he comes out of it solid and can run at least one before the Classic.
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Old 08-09-2015, 02:02 AM   #63
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Honor Code ran a 125 today, Liam's Map a 130 in defeat, Tonalist a 123.
Keep in mind all these figures are for the weight carried today. They will all take a hit in the BC Classic while American Pharoah will not. He carried 122, same as Classic, in the Haskell. The top 3 in the Whitney would be +2, +9, and +2 when required to tote 126.

Last edited by cj; 08-09-2015 at 02:40 AM.
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Old 08-09-2015, 12:54 PM   #64
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Keep in mind all these figures are for the weight carried today. They will all take a hit in the BC Classic while American Pharoah will not. He carried 122, same as Classic, in the Haskell. The top 3 in the Whitney would be +2, +9, and +2 when required to tote 126.
im only a couple years into learning handicapping but wouldnt the weights of the horses relative to what they are carrying extra mean more than just extra weight on its own? plus some of the pics i see of exercise riders look like they easily weigh in 130's

so its +2 +2 +9 but in a 10 horse field what would be a typical range of weight for horses entered? numbers i keep hearing they are 1000 pound animals but they obviously dont all weigh exactly the same

seems the 9 lb should affect a cheap claimer more than a superior athletic G1 horse but give my scenario if the 3 horses in question weights ranged from 1010-1055-1090...in my example i believe the 9 lbs should in theory affect the lighter horse more than if the heaviest horse carried the +9
im sure some will argue the most weight slows you down but i agree only if every horse would be exactly the same weight, strength, speed etc. like a controlled experiment. race horses dont fall into that category




i get the argument that 9 lbs is 5% more on top but the bottom line is the horse still has to carry their own weight so in reality the horse plus load weight only increases fraction of a percent


my question to the trainers is you know you have to add the 9 lbs for a race couple months out do you compensate by training/feeding to shave weight off the horse to counter the increase or try to build more stamina? or change nothing and let the horse take care of business?

since i dont know any of these horses weights,heres best analogy i can counter the lighter equal faster arguement
tom brady weighs 225 runs 5.28 40 time
manning weighs 235 runs 4.8
defensive lineman ndamokung suh weighs 307 pounds and runs 4.98

add a small person to each of their backs and suh will probably beat manning and likely extends his time difference over brady suh shape strength and size can handle the weight the other two are not built like him

tonalist and commissioner carried 10 and 9 more pounds than their Peter Pan race which was i believe 3/8 shorter and finished 1-2 in the belmont photo finish

danza was another horse whom i believe carried 8 more in the derby and finished third but was more from trip than weight
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Old 08-09-2015, 01:22 PM   #65
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Originally Posted by Chaka26
im only a couple years into learning handicapping but wouldnt the weights of the horses relative to what they are carrying extra mean more than just extra weight on its own? plus some of the pics i see of exercise riders look like they easily weigh in 130's

so its +2 +2 +9 but in a 10 horse field what would be a typical range of weight for horses entered? numbers i keep hearing they are 1000 pound animals but they obviously dont all weigh exactly the same

seems the 9 lb should affect a cheap claimer more than a superior athletic G1 horse but give my scenario if the 3 horses in question weights ranged from 1010-1055-1090...in my example i believe the 9 lbs should in theory affect the lighter horse more than if the heaviest horse carried the +9
im sure some will argue the most weight slows you down but i agree only if every horse would be exactly the same weight, strength, speed etc. like a controlled experiment. race horses dont fall into that category




i get the argument that 9 lbs is 5% more on top but the bottom line is the horse still has to carry their own weight so in reality the horse plus load weight only increases fraction of a percent


my question to the trainers is you know you have to add the 9 lbs for a race couple months out do you compensate by training/feeding to shave weight off the horse to counter the increase or try to build more stamina? or change nothing and let the horse take care of business?

since i dont know any of these horses weights,heres best analogy i can counter the lighter equal faster arguement
tom brady weighs 225 runs 5.28 40 time
manning weighs 235 runs 4.8
defensive lineman ndamokung suh weighs 307 pounds and runs 4.98

add a small person to each of their backs and suh will probably beat manning and likely extends his time difference over brady suh shape strength and size can handle the weight the other two are not built like him

tonalist and commissioner carried 10 and 9 more pounds than their Peter Pan race which was i believe 3/8 shorter and finished 1-2 in the belmont photo finish

danza was another horse whom i believe carried 8 more in the derby and finished third but was more from trip than weight
After Andy Beyer consulted the massive DRF database in search of an answer to the nagging question concerning weight...he offered the following advice:

"Subtract four-tenths of a point from a horse's prior Beyer figure for each additional pound that he is carrying today, and add four-tenths of a point per pound if he is carrying less weight."
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Old 08-09-2015, 02:34 PM   #66
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Just saw an ad on tvg for nanoflex horse shoes claiming to increase speed by 2 seconds lol
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Old 08-09-2015, 02:52 PM   #67
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Welcome to Pace Advantage, Chaka.

Ruffin1 will be able to add to your question as well as what Thask has written.

I don't recall conditioners training horses to LOSE weight in order to win. Its hard enough keeping weight on them. Ruffian will know.
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Old 08-09-2015, 03:31 PM   #68
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Originally Posted by Chaka26
im only a couple years into learning handicapping but wouldnt the weights of the horses relative to what they are carrying extra mean more than just extra weight on its own? plus some of the pics i see of exercise riders look like they easily weigh in 130's

so its +2 +2 +9 but in a 10 horse field what would be a typical range of weight for horses entered? numbers i keep hearing they are 1000 pound animals but they obviously dont all weigh exactly the same

seems the 9 lb should affect a cheap claimer more than a superior athletic G1 horse but give my scenario if the 3 horses in question weights ranged from 1010-1055-1090...in my example i believe the 9 lbs should in theory affect the lighter horse more than if the heaviest horse carried the +9
im sure some will argue the most weight slows you down but i agree only if every horse would be exactly the same weight, strength, speed etc. like a controlled experiment. race horses dont fall into that category




i get the argument that 9 lbs is 5% more on top but the bottom line is the horse still has to carry their own weight so in reality the horse plus load weight only increases fraction of a percent


my question to the trainers is you know you have to add the 9 lbs for a race couple months out do you compensate by training/feeding to shave weight off the horse to counter the increase or try to build more stamina? or change nothing and let the horse take care of business?

since i dont know any of these horses weights,heres best analogy i can counter the lighter equal faster arguement
tom brady weighs 225 runs 5.28 40 time
manning weighs 235 runs 4.8
defensive lineman ndamokung suh weighs 307 pounds and runs 4.98

add a small person to each of their backs and suh will probably beat manning and likely extends his time difference over brady suh shape strength and size can handle the weight the other two are not built like him

tonalist and commissioner carried 10 and 9 more pounds than their Peter Pan race which was i believe 3/8 shorter and finished 1-2 in the belmont photo finish

danza was another horse whom i believe carried 8 more in the derby and finished third but was more from trip than weight
You don't change a horses diet to compensate weight allowances in races. Naturally if you feel your horse is heavy or light you can adjust your training and feed. Interesting enough is i have a horse running Wed night at EVD that is dropping 11 lbs in weight running against the same field of horses minus a dropper. Be interesting to see if the big weight drop can move him up a bit. He's going to need it...
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Old 08-09-2015, 06:03 PM   #69
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Originally Posted by Chaka26
im only a couple years into learning handicapping but wouldnt the weights of the horses relative to what they are carrying extra mean more than just extra weight on its own? plus some of the pics i see of exercise riders look like they easily weigh in 130's

so its +2 +2 +9 but in a 10 horse field what would be a typical range of weight for horses entered? numbers i keep hearing they are 1000 pound animals but they obviously dont all weigh exactly the same

seems the 9 lb should affect a cheap claimer more than a superior athletic G1 horse but give my scenario if the 3 horses in question weights ranged from 1010-1055-1090...in my example i believe the 9 lbs should in theory affect the lighter horse more than if the heaviest horse carried the +9
im sure some will argue the most weight slows you down but i agree only if every horse would be exactly the same weight, strength, speed etc. like a controlled experiment. race horses dont fall into that category




i get the argument that 9 lbs is 5% more on top but the bottom line is the horse still has to carry their own weight so in reality the horse plus load weight only increases fraction of a percent


my question to the trainers is you know you have to add the 9 lbs for a race couple months out do you compensate by training/feeding to shave weight off the horse to counter the increase or try to build more stamina? or change nothing and let the horse take care of business?

since i dont know any of these horses weights,heres best analogy i can counter the lighter equal faster arguement
tom brady weighs 225 runs 5.28 40 time
manning weighs 235 runs 4.8
defensive lineman ndamokung suh weighs 307 pounds and runs 4.98

add a small person to each of their backs and suh will probably beat manning and likely extends his time difference over brady suh shape strength and size can handle the weight the other two are not built like him

tonalist and commissioner carried 10 and 9 more pounds than their Peter Pan race which was i believe 3/8 shorter and finished 1-2 in the belmont photo finish

danza was another horse whom i believe carried 8 more in the derby and finished third but was more from trip than weight
I do not know of any trainers that wanted or tried to have their horse lose weight to compensate for carrying more weight in a race. I know I did not. Keeping these elite horses carrying body weight is really important. Most are larger and stronger size wise than the type of claimers you suggested.
With those elite horses, you know going in that carrying weight is part of the deal. It's a given. But most importantly, body weight is all over and it is the horses balanced mass. What we are dealing with when it comes to carrying more weight than another horse is dead weight. A totally different thing IMO. Lead weights that are dead weight are not equal a horse carrying a few more pounds of body weight from one race to the next.

With claimers, you have options. You can buy weight off by entering for a lesser claiming price when it is offered. In Md., you could run for 5k and carry an amount or you could run for 4,750 and buy 3 lbs. off. I always thought that was the best deal in town and did it often when coming back off a win and forced to carry 122 or 119, so it became 119 or 116 depending on how the condition was written.. Other races were 1 lb. for every 1k down to a total of 2lbs. off , like a 12k down to 10k type race. I did not like that as much but fooling around with the claiming price was a solid deterrent to others that were looking to claim the horse. Messing with there minds was half the fun in the claiming game. I would mix it up with that sometimes just to keep them guessing.
Still another was to ride a bug rider and get 5 lbs. off, or 7lbs. off but the difference between 5 and 7 lbs. was usually not worth the gamble of riding the inexperienced rider. 7lbs. is from winner 5 through 35(pretty sure), then 5 lbs. until the year is up which starts as of the 5th win. Using a rider with 10 lbs. off was rarely worth it.
In my day, Md. was a hot bed for apprentice riders so you could imagine the double pleasure of getting 5 lbs. off and a future HOFer or at least a leading rider of the meet.

Hope that helps.
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Old 08-09-2015, 06:30 PM   #70
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Originally Posted by Chaka26
im only a couple years into learning handicapping but wouldnt the weights of the horses relative to what they are carrying extra mean more than just extra weight on its own? plus some of the pics i see of exercise riders look like they easily weigh in 130's
No, we don't know the weight of the horses. I have no doubt that weight changes effect horses differently. I also know this is something I can't measure precisely. That said, I'd still rather do the best I can trying to account for weight than pretending it doesn't matter.

There are plenty of studies out there and lots to read on the effect of weight if you are interested in the topic.
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Old 08-09-2015, 06:32 PM   #71
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Originally Posted by thaskalos
After Andy Beyer consulted the massive DRF database in search of an answer to the nagging question concerning weight...he offered the following advice:

"Subtract four-tenths of a point from a horse's prior Beyer figure for each additional pound that he is carrying today, and add four-tenths of a point per pound if he is carrying less weight."
I'm not sure if my math agrees exactly with his, but that would certainly indicate that adding 9 pounds would be a pretty big change. 3.6 points is two lengths at 9f on Beyer's scale.
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Old 08-09-2015, 07:31 PM   #72
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No, we don't know the weight of the horses. I have no doubt that weight changes effect horses differently. I also know this is something I can't measure precisely. That said, I'd still rather do the best I can trying to account for weight than pretending it doesn't matter.

There are plenty of studies out there and lots to read on the effect of weight if you are interested in the topic.
The carrying of weight does indeed need some consideration and it seems that you are doing the best you can with what you have. I will say that IMO adding 6 lbs. and going from 109 to 115 is a lot less stressful than from 115 to 121.
Too me, it was like if you were lifting weights and were well within your threshold and added some weight, it was no big deal. But when we get up to a point adding slight weight can be a problem.
I guess the million dollar question is what is that threshold for race horses while competing.
I always really started to pay attention to added weight when it got to 119. From that point forward, I felt that each lb. was getting more and more critical. Jocks can help with simply a larger saddle which keeps the weight high near the withers, but once the lead pad or actual lead weights in the sleeves of the pad were laying over the withers and down around where the number on the saddle cloth is, that weight just seemed to me to be more of a burden.
Jocks could also where more clothing in the fall,winter and spring to help stay away from the lead weights. Again, the weight up high seemed to me to be easier to carry than the dreaded sagging weight around the rib cage.
I asked several jocks about this and most all agreed.
When I was a kid, we used to walk to a friends house to play poker sometimes. I would never consider a heavy coat to be a problem when walking a long ways but with a few rolls of quarters sagging in my pockets, I could really feel it. There was indeed a difference, and it was my opinion that it was the same when I trained horses. So I always preferred to have the weight carried high if I had a choice. It was one of those little things that I hoped mattered, but was never sure if it did.
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Old 08-09-2015, 07:37 PM   #73
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I'm not sure if my math agrees exactly with his, but that would certainly indicate that adding 9 pounds would be a pretty big change. 3.6 points is two lengths at 9f on Beyer's scale.
Kind of my point. If it was from 107 to 116 that is one thing. But 117 to 126, too me, that is a whole different ballgame.
It goes back to that area of exactly when does a lb. weigh more than an lb.?
Sounds dumb, but I assume you know what I mean.
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Old 08-09-2015, 07:42 PM   #74
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Originally Posted by Ruffian1
The carrying of weight does indeed need some consideration and it seems that you are doing the best you can with what you have. I will say that IMO adding 6 lbs. and going from 109 to 115 is a lot less stressful than from 115 to 121.
I actually use something similar to this. Any weight below 117 pounds is treated as being 117 pounds. So going from 110 to 117 causes no change in speed figures. 110 to 120 is treated as a three pound change, and so on.

I first read this in a Nick Mordin book and it held up very well in my database of North American racing.
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Old 08-10-2015, 10:45 AM   #75
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I still pay almost no attention to weight unless there's a huge weight shift. I find that I am virtually always confused about some very major aspect of a race that makes a couple of pounds either way seem trivial.

In most races I am unsure what the pace is going to be like, whether a bad race last out was because of an off track or because the horse went off form, whether the figure I am looking at is accurate given that several other figure makers disagree, whether a particularly tough day to decipher was biased or honest, what some horse is going to do stretching out 2F, whether a horse is dropping in class because the connections are trying to win or because something is wrong with it, how much that tough trip actually cost the horse etc...

I can't bring myself to tweak my thinking for small shifts in weight that might not matter and that will probably already be built into the odds by weight sensitive handicappers when there are major issues I often don't have a firm opinion about. It feels like noise relative to the big picture.
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