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07-09-2015, 01:27 PM
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#1
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: MI
Posts: 6,330
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Paper and Pencil Systems you enjoy
Most everything to do with horse racing has a negative ROI. In spite of losing money, are you fond of any P&P systems or methods? I have bought most of them, and consider many of them as a good learning experience.
I enjoyed David Venturo's Quick Pick Winners. He follows a typical system vendor's approach by giving elimination rules first and then using connections for the final selections. What P&P systems have you enjoyed?
__________________
"The Law, in its majestic equality, forbids the rich, as well as the poor, to sleep under bridges, to beg in the streets, and to steal bread."
Anatole France
Last edited by Capper Al; 07-09-2015 at 01:29 PM.
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07-09-2015, 01:40 PM
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#2
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,552
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I have bought most of them too...and, in my opinion...not even ONE of them is worth the paper that it's printed on.
__________________
"Theory is knowledge that doesn't work. Practice is when everything works and you don't know why."
-- Hermann Hesse
Last edited by thaskalos; 07-09-2015 at 01:52 PM.
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07-09-2015, 01:48 PM
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#3
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Veteran
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: Virginia
Posts: 860
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System called Magic Squares many years ago. It was a loser, but quick and simple.
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07-09-2015, 02:15 PM
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#4
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Registered user
Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: FALIRIKON DELTA
Posts: 4,439
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Capper Al
Most everything to do with horse racing has a negative ROI. In spite of losing money, are you fond of any P&P systems or methods? I have bought most of them, and consider many of them as a good learning experience.
I enjoyed David Venturo's Quick Pick Winners. He follows a typical system vendor's approach by giving elimination rules first and then using connections for the final selections. What P&P systems have you enjoyed?
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PEN & PENCIL ???
IT AIN'T WORKING FOR ME AND I SHOULD NEVER TRY IT AGAIN period
As of yesterday morning, I have had 5 consecutive winning days, while two of them consisted of relatively big scores (over $2K)... Of course, during all these days, I had done my homework, having my models and my databases updated and ready to fire, something that was reflected in hitting a pick5, a large pick4 and at least two large pick3 (sorry for the necessary red-boarding)
Yesterday night, I decided that it was OK to bet without the assistance of my models, custom speed figures and all the additional goodies that my software is providing me with... In other words, my winning streak, simply worked in favour of my over-confidence, which all gamblers have fallen victims, some or many times during their betting careers...
The only input to my handicapping had to come from the racing form alone, since I was lazy enough to not prepare my server for the day... As you can easily assume, my winning streak was broken miserably, as I failed to cash a ticket in any of the approximately 9 races that I ended up betting...
At least for my personal style of handicapping and betting, relying on a pen and pencil approach is the worse approach I might take, converting me to another prey of the take-out and the toughness of the crowd.
__________________
whereof one cannot speak thereof one must be silent
Ludwig Wittgenstein
Last edited by DeltaLover; 07-09-2015 at 02:18 PM.
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07-09-2015, 02:26 PM
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#5
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Buckle Up
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 10,614
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by DeltaLover
PEN & PENCIL ???
IT AIN'T WORKING FOR ME AND I SHOULD NEVER TRY IT AGAIN period
As of yesterday morning, I have had 5 consecutive winning days, while two of them consisted of relatively big scores (over $2K)... Of course, during all these days, I had done my homework, having my models and my databases updated and ready to fire, something that was reflected in hitting a pick5, a large pick4 and at least two large pick3 (sorry for the necessary red-boarding)
Yesterday night, I decided that it was OK to bet without the assistance of my models, custom speed figures and all the additional goodies that my software is providing me with... In other words, my winning streak, simply worked in favour of my over-confidence, which all gamblers have fallen victims, some or many times during their betting careers...
The only input to my handicapping had to come from the racing form alone, since I was lazy enough to not prepare my server for the day... As you can easily assume, my winning streak was broken miserably, as I failed to cash a ticket in any of the approximately 9 races that I ended up betting...
At least for my personal style of handicapping and betting, relying on a pen and pencil approach is the worse approach I might take, converting me to another prey of the take-out and the toughness of the crowd.
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It's always good to be honest with one's wagering successes and failures, even when Red-boarding.... 
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07-10-2015, 06:26 AM
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#6
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: MI
Posts: 6,330
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Flysofree
System called Magic Squares many years ago. It was a loser, but quick and simple.
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Will you tell us a little something about it?
__________________
"The Law, in its majestic equality, forbids the rich, as well as the poor, to sleep under bridges, to beg in the streets, and to steal bread."
Anatole France
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07-10-2015, 06:30 AM
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#7
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: MI
Posts: 6,330
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by thaskalos
I have bought most of them too...and, in my opinion...not even ONE of them is worth the paper that it's printed on.
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Most aren't worth the paper that they are printed on. Yet, some will point out a lesson or two on how to handicap. Like I said in the OP, most everything in racing has a negative ROI. But was there a system that was interesting in spite of this?
__________________
"The Law, in its majestic equality, forbids the rich, as well as the poor, to sleep under bridges, to beg in the streets, and to steal bread."
Anatole France
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07-10-2015, 06:32 AM
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#8
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: MI
Posts: 6,330
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by DeltaLover
PEN & PENCIL ???
IT AIN'T WORKING FOR ME AND I SHOULD NEVER TRY IT AGAIN period
As of yesterday morning, I have had 5 consecutive winning days, while two of them consisted of relatively big scores (over $2K)... Of course, during all these days, I had done my homework, having my models and my databases updated and ready to fire, something that was reflected in hitting a pick5, a large pick4 and at least two large pick3 (sorry for the necessary red-boarding)
Yesterday night, I decided that it was OK to bet without the assistance of my models, custom speed figures and all the additional goodies that my software is providing me with... In other words, my winning streak, simply worked in favour of my over-confidence, which all gamblers have fallen victims, some or many times during their betting careers...
The only input to my handicapping had to come from the racing form alone, since I was lazy enough to not prepare my server for the day... As you can easily assume, my winning streak was broken miserably, as I failed to cash a ticket in any of the approximately 9 races that I ended up betting...
At least for my personal style of handicapping and betting, relying on a pen and pencil approach is the worse approach I might take, converting me to another prey of the take-out and the toughness of the crowd.
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You're talking to the king of ruining systems.
__________________
"The Law, in its majestic equality, forbids the rich, as well as the poor, to sleep under bridges, to beg in the streets, and to steal bread."
Anatole France
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07-10-2015, 06:58 AM
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#9
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Veteran
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: Virginia
Posts: 860
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Capper Al
Will you tell us a little something about it?
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My memory of it is hazy... It had something to do with simply adding numbers from a horse post positions and subtracting numbers from finish positions..Then something to do with the odds. A guy gave it to me at the racetrack one day.
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07-10-2015, 12:55 PM
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#10
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,552
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Capper Al
Most aren't worth the paper that they are printed on. Yet, some will point out a lesson or two on how to handicap. Like I said in the OP, most everything in racing has a negative ROI. But was there a system that was interesting in spite of this?
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Although my memory is still pretty good, I can't for the life of me come up with a system that I would call "interesting". Nor can I agree that they pointed out lessons for me on how to handicap. If anything...I believe they stood as an obstacle to where I wanted to eventually get as a player.
I wanted a thorough understanding of what I interpreted as a dynamic and multi-dimensional game...but the systems advertised great financial rewards for following simplistic rules. I used many of these systems...and none of them even came close to fulfilling their lofty promises. If anything...they taught me that I shouldn't trust those who propose to turn me into a winning horseplayer, in return for handing them a $20 bill or two. Not a bad lesson...now that I think about it.
__________________
"Theory is knowledge that doesn't work. Practice is when everything works and you don't know why."
-- Hermann Hesse
Last edited by thaskalos; 07-10-2015 at 12:56 PM.
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07-10-2015, 01:09 PM
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#11
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Veteran
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: Virginia
Posts: 860
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I don't remember the name of the system, but way back in history; I bought a system from a guy named Al Illich.. Now I think that was the spelling. It was a tote board system and like much stuff, I've bought it started out very well. I recall going to Dover Downs and using it on the Harness horses... I won and thought, I'd found the key to paradise. It was short lived of course, but I did learn one thing that I think holds truth today... At some point the sharps or insiders put their money in the parimutual system.... When and how may still hold they key. But what I suspect is that some of the wise guys use bookies and we may or may not see the money in the pools.
Just my 2 pennies about systems.
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07-10-2015, 01:52 PM
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#12
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Behind the Pine Curtain
Posts: 10,646
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Capper Al
Most everything to do with horse racing has a negative ROI. In spite of losing money, are you fond of any P&P systems or methods? I have bought most of them, and consider many of them as a good learning experience.
I enjoyed David Venturo's Quick Pick Winners. He follows a typical system vendor's approach by giving elimination rules first and then using connections for the final selections. What P&P systems have you enjoyed?
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There was a bogus poster here yrs ago named Karlscorner. He posted about the "Chinese Double". Was going to link the thread but it's removed - prolly b/c it was 12-13 years ago.
Pure nonsense, this was.... Prior to the 2nd race of a DD, you look at DD payouts. Take the most bet horse in the 2nd leg and bet it to win. Basically letting the crowd do your handicapping, never a profitable thing to do. But since you asked....
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07-10-2015, 03:06 PM
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#13
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Veteran
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 3,428
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by ElKabong
There was a bogus poster here yrs ago named Karlscorner. He posted about the "Chinese Double". Was going to link the thread but it's removed - prolly b/c it was 12-13 years ago.
Pure nonsense, this was.... Prior to the 2nd race of a DD, you look at DD payouts. Take the most bet horse in the 2nd leg and bet it to win. Basically letting the crowd do your handicapping, never a profitable thing to do. But since you asked....
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I don't know Karlscorner or why you would suggest he was bogus. But, his suggestion for the DD has been around for years similar to finding heavily bet legs for multi race bets. I think the logic was insider knowledge.
Btw, I never tried any of them for any extended period of time. It never appealed to me from a handicapping view point. I never had any control.
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07-10-2015, 03:59 PM
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#14
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Behind the Pine Curtain
Posts: 10,646
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by whodoyoulike
I don't know Karlscorner or why you would suggest he was bogus. But, his suggestion for the DD has been around for years similar to finding heavily bet legs for multi race bets. I think the logic was insider knowledge.
Btw, I never tried any of them for any extended period of time. It never appealed to me from a handicapping view point. I never had any control.
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Karl was bogus. He'd boast of nonsense (like the chinese double) angles once in awhile. Things that don't work long term, yet (he said) he made his living in so. Fla betting horses.
Poster GR1 (from my area) offered Karl to meet him at Calder and witness such nonsense. Karl refused to meet GR1 even tho GR1 offered to pay him just $100 to meet up. Karl backed away from the offer. That was pretty much the last of Karl's boastful posts, among which was he'd only be @ the track for 2 or 3 races. Reason = he went home after winning $300 or $400. Didn't want to give it back.
That kind of nonsense (laughing as I type)
If the chinese double was profitable, people would be jumping all over it. As I recall posters tracked the angle. It tanked.
Last edited by ElKabong; 07-10-2015 at 04:03 PM.
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07-10-2015, 06:08 PM
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#15
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Racing Form Detective
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Lincoln, Ne but my heart is at Santa Anita
Posts: 16,316
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Capper Al
Most everything to do with horse racing has a negative ROI. In spite of losing money, are you fond of any P&P systems or methods? I have bought most of them, and consider many of them as a good learning experience.
I enjoyed David Venturo's Quick Pick Winners. He follows a typical system vendor's approach by giving elimination rules first and then using connections for the final selections. What P&P systems have you enjoyed?
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The best P &P systems are the ones I came up with myself. I came with a bunch of them when I was first starting out. They usually started out with the speed rating as the base and then add points for various things such as Jockey switches and class drops. Most worked for a while and then stopped dead in its tracks. One caught a couple of $100+ winners in the space of 3 days. One I developed with the aid of a multi regression showed a small positive ROI for over 20 years until they started increasing time between starts. The only one I liked that I did not develop was in a book called The Gamblers Digest.
__________________
Some day in the not too distant future, horse players will betting on computer generated races over the net. Race tracks will become casinos and shopping centers. And some crooner will be belting out "there used to be a race track here".
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