pick 3 experts . question.

[bobbyt62]

Today,sunday June 28. Prairie meadows. Races 3 4 and 5. I play a straight ticket (p3) for $5 of 2-5-7, with m/l's of 10-1, 9-2, and 4-1. The 10-1 wins at $27.40. The 9-2 wins at $5.60. After the 9-2 wins at $5.60, they show the probables for the p3 ending in race 5. In the 7 horse race , 3 of the horses are paying 2/3 (the 1 , 4 , and 5 at 6-1,5-1, and 8-1, ridden by the 1st, 2nd, and 4th jock at prm). Of the 4 horses that have 3 of 3 possibilities, the 2 pays $1612, the 3 pays $806, the 6 pays $3225 and the 7-------wait for it------ pays 169, with respective m/l's of 5-1,6-1, 5-2(favorite--m/l and actual) and 4-1. 95% of my action is win money, so can a pick 3 player explain how this is possible ? have you seen mistakes of posted probable------ maybe my ticket was paying $1690 ? Of course, it goes without saying that the 7 lost by a nose to the 2, way clear of the rest, and a p3 of $27 , $5.60 , and $8 pays $1612. I did have a $20 win bet on the $27 (you can't bet mote than that at these small tracks), but I don't understand how these p3's work, and I do see a lot of them in my future, as win betting small tracks is squickly becoming impossible.

[Light]

I played the same Pk3 sequence and also needed the 7 in the last leg, but for 2/3. I assumed the payoff to the 7 was low b/c that must have been the payoff for 2/3. The Pk4 that concluded right after this pk3 only had 1 winner,which also leads me to believe it would have paid on 2/3 with the 7.

If you look at the pool for that pk3 that started in the 3rd race there was only $1047 bet into it. The correct winning combination of 2-5-2 paid $403 for 50 cents which means there were only 2 winning combinations, or $1 worth at most.

Since you were alive to 3/3 with the 7, the potential payout doesn't make sense unless you played offshore where bets are not co mingled in the pools.

Another possibility is that you were alive 5x to the 7 which would lower the payoff with such a small pool. Maybe some other guy also had it going for 20x or something like that? (Btw a little better ride would have gotten the job done on the 7)

[Some_One]

At small tracks, do not expect the exotic payoffs to correlate to the win pools as it won't take much to affect them.

[ultracapper]

Your $5 bet was so large in relation to the pool that the pari-mutuel system knocked your per unit payoff way down. You would have taken down the entire pool if the 7 would have won. You had the only winning combination if the 7 would have won. You would have won the entire pool with a 50 cent ticket. Impossible to know that before the first leg however. Small pools like that make it counter productive to play the same combination too many times. You're just unnecessarily exposing your bankroll. You can't win more than the size of the pool. The only way that $5 ticket would have been to your advantage would have been if one other player had played that combination. If one other player would have played it for 50 cents, and the 7 would have won, you would have taken down 10/11ths of the pool. The other player would have been screaming bloody murder over his $74 winning pick 3 ticket. You would have been dancing however.

[ultracapper]

If the 7 would have won, Light wouldn't have collected. The OP would have taken down the pool, and Light would have had a losing 2/3 ticket.

[bobbyt62]

I had $5 on it. At $169 per $2 (that's how they posted it), that about $425. The entire pool was $500 or so ?

[ultracapper]

My bad. I thought they were $1 increments.

[EMD4ME]

I bet Emerald all the time because it's the track to me, that is the most formful. I also play Prairie Meadows sometime as I do like that track. I think Sunday is their worst day from a handle perspective. If the pool was near 1000 and assuming a 25% vig, you have a $750 net pool. If the payoff was $169, there was $9 bucks closing on the 7. 9 X 84 is & $756. Without your $5 bucks on it, there was 4 bucks on the combination and it would have been paying $375 for a deuce.

I run across the same problem at Emerald in certain pools and certain races. I only play doubles in the first and last 2 races as all the middle double pools are small. I bet more in the last pick 3 of the day as that p3 pool is the biggest of the day.

In the races where the pick 4 or pick 5 starts, be careful with how much you bet in the pick 3 as that pool suffers from the larger pools (p4 and p5). However, I like these inefficient pools as I have pool scoped them countless times with a $12 bet.

Just know what your working with.

[castaway01]

Originally Posted by bobbyt62

I had $5 on it. At $169 per $2 (that's how they posted it), that about $425. The entire pool was $500 or so ?

There's just no money in the pool, and there's really no reason to ever bet in a pool that small.

[therussmeister]

Originally Posted by castaway01

There's just no money in the pool, and there's really no reason to ever bet in a pool that small.

Yes, that's why the pools are so small.

[Light]

Originally Posted by castaway01

There's just no money in the pool, and there's really no reason to ever bet in a pool that small.

But you are also playing against a less sophisticated crowd than places like SA or Bel. Get a medium price in one leg and you get rewarded handsomely. Not so with sophisticated players. And sophisticated players do not want to play small pools. Better to Keep them sharks out of the pools.

[ultracapper]

I once took down a trifecta pool at Emerald with a 12/1 on top of the chalk and a mid range in 3rd. $1700. I couldn't figure out why no one else would not have that combo. 8 or 9 horse field, favorite looked the part, but not unbeatable. That was about 10 years ago now.

BTW, my brother-in-law came by this morning, and he had gone down to Emerald last Saturday. First time he'd been down in a couple years, same as me. He said he was surprised at the attendance, he guessed 7,000 or so, and he said the vibe felt great. The crowd was alive and loud and it was just a pleasantly surprising experience. I was happy to hear that.

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by ultracapper

I once took down a trifecta pool at Emerald with a 12/1 on top of the chalk and a mid range in 3rd. $1700. I couldn't figure out why no one else would not have that combo. 8 or 9 horse field, favorite looked the part, but not unbeatable. That was about 10 years ago now.

BTW, my brother-in-law came by this morning, and he had gone down to Emerald last Saturday. First time he'd been down in a couple years, same as me. He said he was surprised at the attendance, he guessed 7,000 or so, and he said the vibe felt great. The crowd was alive and loud and it was just a pleasantly surprising experience. I was happy to hear that.

Not surprised. Had some nice pools today. Had over $175K wagered on the 6th race and many races were well over $100K.

Being a NYer have never been there but I honestly can feel the vibe from 3000 miles away. Ive said it many times: I'm sure Emerald outdraws Belmont on many days.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by EMD4ME

Not surprised. Had some nice pools today. Had over $175K wagered on the 6th race and many races were well over $100K.

Being a NYer have never been there but I honestly can feel the vibe from 3000 miles away. Ive said it many times: I'm sure Emerald outdraws Belmont on many days.

Sure. When Belmont is dark.

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Sure. When Belmont is dark.

Thaskalos, have you been at Belmont in the last 3 4 or 5 years?