Since Speed is the Long Pole in the Tent

[raybo]

Originally Posted by pandy

But, if we're talking about one factor that can pick the highest percentage of winners, it's hard to beat a speed figure.

Then we will have to agree to disagree. I haven't used speed figures for many years and have done much better since abandoning them completely. IMO, the best use of speed figures would be using them to see what your competitors are looking at in order to make their contributions to the final odds.

[pandy]

Originally Posted by raybo

Then we will have to agree to disagree. I haven't used speed figures for many years and have done much better since abandoning them completely. IMO, the best use of speed figures would be using them to see what your competitors are looking at in order to make their contributions to the final odds.

Remember, I'm not talking about ROI. Yes, my compounded ratings are very helpful and can pinpoint live longshots. But, for picking the highest percentage of winners, it's hard to fault speed figures.

[Capper Al]

It's an aggregate pace figure that is being compare to speed figures, not pace analysis. Pace analysis might be more profitable, but doesn't outright get more hits than speed. The question becomes if speed is the best single figure, shouldn't that be our starting point? One could still use pace analysis to narrow down the field and even at times eliminate the top speed horse all together.

[DJofSD]

Originally Posted by Capper Al

It's an aggregate pace figure that is being compare to speed figures, not pace analysis. Pace analysis might be more profitable, but doesn't outright get more hits than speed. The question becomes if speed is the best single figure, shouldn't that be our starting point? One could still use pace analysis to narrow down the field and even at times eliminate the top speed horse all together.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by pandy

My rating (Diamond Rating) is infinitely better than Average Pace. But, because fractions are included, it is skewed towards horses than ran faster fractions. I've seen many velocity style programs and every one I've seen has the same problem.

The pace ratings are used to measure how a horse rationed his speed during the running of a race. The faster an individual fraction is, the more the pace handicapper is impressed...because he knows that the horse really exerted itself during at least a portion of the race. THAT'S why the pace handicapper "skews" his ratings, to favor the horse who are running the faster fractions. In the pace handicapper's point of view...the horse who ran the faster fractions also ran the better race...and DESERVES the higher ratings.

How many times do we see a horse take an easy early lead in a sprint, run fractions of 22.6 - 46.2 - 1:10.4...and impress the Beyer Boys to an extent where they assign an abnormally large speed figure to this horse? The "speed" handicapper may downgrade this performance because of the easy lead...but only the pace handicapper can rate this performance with any level of precision...so he can compare this effort to those of the other horses in the race.

As a pace handicapper...I laugh at stand-alone final-time figures...and I wonder about the sanity of those players who insist on using them without pairing them up with competent pace analysis. To me...it's a lot like the boxer who enters the ring with the intention of using only one arm during the fight.

The pace ratings COMPLEMENT the speed figures...and even point out mistakes that often creep into them. The pace figures and the speed figures provide a better understanding of the performance of these horses, when they are used in tandem...and a better understanding of things must always precede any notions of earning a profit in a game, or in a business venture. A better UNDERSTANDING is the real goal, IMO. The profit is simply the byproduct of a job well and thoughtfully done.

I laugh when I see discussions about eliminating certain important aspects of handicapping...because carrying through with such eliminations takes away from our understanding of the game. We are betting against super-sophisticated competition here...and we cannot hope to survive by getting "dumber". If we eliminate, or downgrade, a handicapping factor because we think this factor is "overused"...then we must invent a NEW factor to take its place...in order to fill the "knowledge gap" which the eliminated factor has created.

We are facing "Superstar" competition here, Pandy...and we need to make the adjustment in order to survive. We can't depend on simplistic systems. This isn't the Yonkers of old...

[pandy]

Originally Posted by Capper Al

It's an aggregate pace figure that is being compare to speed figures, not pace analysis. Pace analysis might be more profitable, but doesn't outright get more hits than speed. The question becomes if speed is the best single figure, shouldn't that be our starting point? One could still use pace analysis to narrow down the field and even at times eliminate the top speed horse all together.

Exactly. Pace handicapping is certainly a good approach to finding value, but as a win predictor, hard to beat a speed figure.

[DJofSD]

Originally Posted by pandy

Exactly. Pace handicapping is certainly a good approach to finding value, but as a win predictor, hard to beat a speed figure.

Is your second best speed figure horse your place horse?

[pandy]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

The pace ratings are used to measure how a horse rationed his speed during the running of a race. The faster an individual fraction is, the more the pace handicapper is impressed...because he knows that the horse really exerted itself during at least a portion of the race. THAT'S why the pace handicapper "skews" his ratings, to favor the horse who are running the faster fractions. In the pace handicapper's point of view...the horse who ran the faster fractions also ran the better race...and DESERVES the higher ratings.

How many times do we see a horse take an easy early lead in a sprint, run fractions of 22.6 - 46.2 - 1:10.4...and impress the Beyer Boys to an extent where they assign an abnormally large speed figure to this horse? The "speed" handicapper may downgrade this performance because of the easy lead...but only the pace handicapper can rate this performance with any level of precision...so he can compare this effort to those of the other horses in the race.

As a pace handicapper...I laugh at stand-alone final-time figures...and I wonder about the sanity of those players who insist on using them without pairing them up with competent pace analysis. To me...it's a lot like the boxer who enters the ring with the intention of using only one arm during the fight.

The pace ratings COMPLEMENT the speed figures...and even point out mistakes that often creep into them. The pace figures and the speed figures provide a better understanding of the performance of these horses, when they are used in tandem...and a better understanding of things must always precede any notions of earning a profit in a game, or in a business venture. A better UNDERSTANDING is the real goal, IMO. The profit is simply the byproduct of a job well and thoughtfully done.

I laugh when I see discussions about eliminating certain important aspects of handicapping...because carrying through with such eliminations takes away from our understanding of the game. We are betting against super-sophisticated competition here...and we cannot hope to survive by getting "dumber". If we eliminate, or downgrade, a handicapping factor because we think this factor is "overused"...then we must invent a NEW factor to take its place...in order to fill the "knowledge gap" which the eliminated factor has created.

We are facing "Superstar" competition here, Pandy...and we need to make the adjustment in order to survive. We can't depend on simplistic systems. This isn't the Yonkers of old...

I agree with you about pace handicapping. I wrote a book called Pace Handicapping Longshots that totally ignores speed figures and final times, and I use the methods in that book every day. However, Al's point was that speed figures are the strongest single predictor of who will win the race. And can we create something from that.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Capper Al

The question becomes if speed is the best single figure, shouldn't that be our starting point? One could still use pace analysis to narrow down the field and even at times eliminate the top speed horse all together.

What is your point, Al? Let's find the most significant handicapping factors...eliminate the horses that they point to...and then focus on the horses who are left?

[pandy]

Originally Posted by DJofSD

Is your second best speed figure horse your place horse?

Sometimes, it depends on the situation. Again, I'm not saying that I'm a speed handicapper. I'm actually more of a pace handicapper. However, I was responding to the subject of this thread.

[Capper Al]

I laugh when I see discussions about eliminating certain important aspects of handicapping...because carrying through with such eliminations takes away from our understanding of the game. We are betting against super-sophisticated competition here...and we cannot hope to survive by getting "dumber". If we eliminate, or downgrade, a handicapping factor because we think this factor is "overused"...then we must invent a NEW factor to take its place...in order to fill the "knowledge gap" which the eliminated factor has created.

I'm not answering for Pandy. But the discussion is where should we start our handicapping not finish it. If not starting with the best single factor(speed) then where else and why? I'm not sure of what you mean by getting dumber here. On the contrary, if one understands how the racing information flows, they will be a smarter handicapper.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by pandy

However, Al's point was that speed figures are the strongest single predictor of who will win the race. And can we create something from that.

No. Al said that speed figures are the single strongest predictor in the game, so, let's find the horse with the highest speed figure...and ELIMINATE it. And when pace ratings were suggested...Al thought of the idea of also finding the horse with the highest pace ratings...and ELIMINATING THAT TOO.

Is this your idea of "working" with the most predictive factors in the game? We find the horses that these factors identify...and then we ELIMINATE them?

[raybo]

Originally Posted by Capper Al

It's an aggregate pace figure that is being compare to speed figures, not pace analysis. Pace analysis might be more profitable, but doesn't outright get more hits than speed. The question becomes if speed is the best single figure, shouldn't that be our starting point? One could still use pace analysis to narrow down the field and even at times eliminate the top speed horse all together.

I'm not talking about "pace analysis" either, I'm talking about pace figures (if they are good ones) and/or fractional velocities (if they are good enough) and their combination to obtain a full race figure, versus using only speed figures (and I'm assuming they would be "good" ones also).

I'll take my fractional and total velocities over any speed figure on the planet, any day of the week, as stand alone factors for both hit rate and ROI.

I don't expect many (if any) to agree, but then, I'm me and you are you.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Capper Al

I'm not answering for Pandy. But the discussion is where should we start our handicapping not finish it. If not starting with the best single factor(speed) then where else and why? I'm not sure of what you mean by getting dumber here. On the contrary, if one understands how the racing information flows, they will be a smarter handicapper.

You still don't know how to "start your handicapping"? Aren't you the guy who had booked 5 winning years in a row? And you hit a little turbulence in your journey...and you are back at the start of the handicapping process again? Give me a break, Al...

[Capper Al]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

What is your point, Al? Let's find the most significant handicapping factors...eliminate the horses that they point to...and then focus on the horses who are left?

I have posted many times here that I'm a comprehensive handicapper taking into account all type of information. I am not a speed only handicapper. Yet, we need to keep an open mind and challenge our premises if we are to be successful.