Since Speed is the Long Pole in the Tent

[DJofSD]

Originally Posted by Capper Al

I currently have my pace module in my code disconnected for the rewrite, but am looking forward to revising it and still use much of what Giles has thought me. And I agree that the best use of pace is figuring if the horse can run his race. But I'm not talking about analysis here as the starting point. The discussion for pace would be on a single pace figure like Equibase offers to compare against speed. Speed should out do most comprehensive figures here.

OK, I appreciate the response.

I have a difficult time reducing handicapping to a comparison of numbers especially a single value figure whether it is speed or pace or class. Yes, you have to start the process somewhere but just stopping when you've come up with a single value which is suppose to represent the potential of a horse and then making a wager is just a single step up from betting on the color of the silks IMO.

[pandy]

If you pose the question this way, you can only use one handicapping factor, and the goal isn't to show a profit, it's to pick the highest percentage of winners, then I think speed (figures) would be the number 1 factor.

[pandy]

Originally Posted by pandy

If you pose the question this way, you can only use one handicapping factor, and the goal isn't to show a profit, it's to pick the highest percentage of winners, then I think speed (figures) would be the number 1 factor.

So going back to Capper Al's original question, if you assume that speed is the number 1 factor, can you work from that? Can you eliminate the best top speed and only look for overlays that have the second or third best speed, for instance?

Aren't there players on this forum who rely predominantly on speed figures? I have known bettors who hardly look at the past performances at all. They only used the Ragozin sheets and some of them were big bettors.


Or can you eliminate speed and use pace only? Do you have to combine all of the factors? Or can a smart bettor get by with one? Or two? Do people over handicap, looking at too many factors?

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by pandy

So going back to Capper Al's original question, if you assume that speed is the number 1 factor, can you work from that? Can you eliminate the best top speed and only look for overlays that have the second or third best speed, for instance?

Aren't there players on this forum who rely predominantly on speed figures? I have known bettors who hardly look at the past performances at all. They only used the Ragozin sheets and some of them were big bettors.


Or can you eliminate speed and use pace only? Do you have to combine all of the factors? Or can a smart bettor get by with one? Or two? Do people over handicap, looking at too many factors?

If the handicapper relies on only one handicapping factor...then he does not qualify to be called "smart"...IMO. And if he persists in his foolish ways...then he will soon deserve to be called BROKE.

[pondman]

Originally Posted by pandy

If you pose the question this way, you can only use one handicapping factor, and the goal isn't to show a profit, it's to pick the highest percentage of winners, then I think speed (figures) would be the number 1 factor.

It's a ridiculous notion to think you are going to handicap a 4 1/2 furlong at Los Alamitos along side a 1/16th race at Charlestown and use only Beyer's speed rating. You'll get crucified doing that. You'll fail at both of these. Nobody should do this. Yet if you know which data to use for which race, you can easily make a profit. And the reason you can make a profit is because people are only using speed ratings.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by pandy

So going back to Capper Al's original question, if you assume that speed is the number 1 factor, can you work from that? Can you eliminate the best top speed and only look for overlays that have the second or third best speed, for instance?

In my opinion...you are still concentrating on "speed" even if you focus on the second or the third-highest speed figure.

I must be getting less observant in my advancing years...because it isn't obvious to me that these top speed-figure horses are always being bet as heavily as some people think. I see plenty of horses who have the top speed figure...but they receive only lukewarm support on the board...while some others are pretty much ignored.

These "movers and shakers" who tilt today's odds boards seem to me to be relying on more than just a set of accurate speed figures.

[Tall One]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

If the handicapper relies on only one handicapping factor...then he does not qualify to be called "smart"...IMO. And if he persists in his foolish ways...then he will soon deserve to be called BROKE.

Concur.

You owe it (literally sometimes) to yourself to consider all your main handicapping factors regarding how the horse will run today.

[GaryG]

Speed and pace figures are interrelated. One goes fast early and slow late, next time he goes slow early and wins easy. Trying to say which factor is the most important is a waste of time. Every speed figure is dependent on a pace figure.

[pandy]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

If the handicapper relies on only one handicapping factor...then he does not qualify to be called "smart"...IMO. And if he persists in his foolish ways...then he will soon deserve to be called BROKE.

I wouldn't be so sure, and I'll tell you why. Do I look at various handicappers factors, such as speed, pace, class, trips? Yes. But, you can't assume that it's stupid, as you suggest, to only use one factor.

As an example, I have to handicap every race at Belmont because I do picks for a service and a sheet that's sold on track. In this case, it would be difficult to compete with the other public handicappers if I just used one factor.

However, let's forget about handicapping every race in a traditional manner trying to pick the winners. Suppose there is a player who only uses one factor and looks for spot play overlays. This could be different factors. Personally, I think a good pace handicapper can use pace figures alone and show a profit betting pace handicapping longshots. But, to stay on the original factor, speed, say there is player who buys the Ragozin sheets and is an expert at reading them (and there are players like this). And this player, using nothing but the Ragozin speed figures, looks through every maiden or claiming race at several tracks a day and highlights races where he thinks he has found one or two horses in a race that appear to have an edge based on how he interprets the figures.

This player then assigns his own personal odds line to these potential plays and makes his bets on these horses but sets his minimum odds requirement through an ADW that allows him to do that.

Some of you may think that this type of player has no chance, because he is not using anything else but speed. But Iv'e met players who say that they do exactly that, and win. Now, it's possible that they lied to me. But, I don't know where they get their money from then because some of these sheet players are big bettors.

I think the question is, can you specialize? I don't see why you can't. As I said earlier in this post, a good pace handicapper who's patient and only bets longshot overlays can use nothing but pace figures to show a profit, especially in certain types of races.

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by pandy

I wouldn't be so sure, and I'll tell you why. Do I look at various handicappers factors, such as speed, pace, class, trips? Yes. But, you can't assume that it's stupid, as you suggest, to only use one factor. By not filtering other factors, you're leaving money on the table.


As an example, I have to handicap every race at Belmont because I do picks for a service and a sheet that's sold on track. In this case, it would be difficult to compete with the other public handicappers if I just used one factor. A promotional plug, but that's OK

However, let's forget about handicapping every race in a traditional manner trying to pick the winners. Suppose there is a player who only uses one factor and looks for spot play overlays. This could be different factors. Personally, I think a good pace handicapper can use pace figures alone and show a profit betting pace handicapping longshots. Still leaving money on the table

But, to stay on the original factor, speed, say there is player who buys the Ragozin sheets and is an expert at reading them (and there are players like this). And this player, using nothing but the Ragozin speed figures, looks through every maiden or claiming race at several tracks a day and highlights races where he thinks he has found one or two horses in a race that appear to have an edge based on how he interprets the figures. Sheet players only have a real edge with turf routes, but they'll deny this.

This player then assigns his own personal odds line to these potential plays and makes his bets on these horses but sets his minimum odds requirement through an ADW that allows him to do that. Conditional wagering...the only way to fly

Some of you may think that this type of player has no chance, because he is not using anything else but speed. But Iv'e met players who say that they do exactly that, and win. Now, it's possible that they lied to me. But, I don't know where they get their money from then because some of these sheet players are big bettors. Sheet numbers are a TOTALITY number, not a speed figure.

I think the question is, can you specialize? I don't see why you can't. As I said earlier in this post, a good pace handicapper who's patient and only bets longshot overlays can use nothing but pace figures to show a profit, especially in certain types of races.

Nowhere do you mention the viewing of REPLAYS......Don't have enough time?

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by pandy

I wouldn't be so sure, and I'll tell you why. Do I look at various handicappers factors, such as speed, pace, class, trips? Yes. But, you can't assume that it's stupid, as you suggest, to only use one factor.

As an example, I have to handicap every race at Belmont because I do picks for a service and a sheet that's sold on track. In this case, it would be difficult to compete with the other public handicappers if I just used one factor.

However, let's forget about handicapping every race in a traditional manner trying to pick the winners. Suppose there is a player who only uses one factor and looks for spot play overlays. This could be different factors. Personally, I think a good pace handicapper can use pace figures alone and show a profit betting pace handicapping longshots. But, to stay on the original factor, speed, say there is player who buys the Ragozin sheets and is an expert at reading them (and there are players like this). And this player, using nothing but the Ragozin speed figures, looks through every maiden or claiming race at several tracks a day and highlights races where he thinks he has found one or two horses in a race that appear to have an edge based on how he interprets the figures.

This player then assigns his own personal odds line to these potential plays and makes his bets on these horses but sets his minimum odds requirement through an ADW that allows him to do that.

Some of you may think that this type of player has no chance, because he is not using anything else but speed. But Iv'e met players who say that they do exactly that, and win. Now, it's possible that they lied to me. But, I don't know where they get their money from then because some of these sheet players are big bettors.

I think the question is, can you specialize? I don't see why you can't. As I said earlier in this post, a good pace handicapper who's patient and only bets longshot overlays can use nothing but pace figures to show a profit, especially in certain types of races.

I also believe in "specialization"...but I don't consider specialization to mean the employment of a single handicapping factor to form my betting opinions. The speed handicapper who disregards pace is in dire straits, IMO...as is the pace handicapper who disregards class. And the "class" handicapper is also in trouble...if he relies on claiming tags, purse sizes, earnings...or the "A" beat "B", and "B" beat "C", so "A" must beat "C" definition of "class". The trip handicapper too better be versed on the finer points of class and pace...otherwise, I don't envy his survival chances either. Expecting to beat this game by employing only one handicapping factor is akin to expecting to beat Magnus Carlsen in chess, simply by mastering a few cute opening moves.

You don't have to regard all the handicapping factors as "equals"...but you cannot afford to ignore any of them either, IMO. Those who say that they beat this game by just consulting their Ragozin sheets are lying, IMO. The game has gotten much more difficult to beat than that.

[pandy]

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

Nowhere do you mention the viewing of REPLAYS......Don't have enough time?

I watch some replays but the way I handicap, the trips I'm most concerned with are horses that are used hard against the race shape and/or bias. For instance, horses that are used in a faster-than-par pace.

Rough trips, slow starts, horses that get checked, all that sort of stuff, I'm not that interested because I personally have not had much luck betting rough trip horses back, even when the effort looks visually impressive. I have had a lot of success betting horses back that were used in a fast pace in a race that was dominated by closers. But I don't need replays for that.

[Greyfox]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Those who say that they beat this game by just consulting their Ragozin sheets are lying, IMO.

Agreed.
(They won't beat the game just using any single speed figure - Ragozin or whoever.)

[Tom]

Originally Posted by Capper Al

So you are saying that you have a better factor, or you know better? That's what your butt should answer if this is what you have.

My research and that of many others have shown speed to be the single best factor.

This is what you said....

And you pace user are in denial. You start with speed in fragments and then add the fragments up for a final figure.

That is not a speed figure or a pace figure.

[pandy]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

I also believe in "specialization"...but I don't consider specialization to mean the employment of a single handicapping factor to form my betting opinions. The speed handicapper who disregards pace is in dire straits, IMO...as is the pace handicapper who disregards class. And the "class" handicapper is also in trouble...if he relies on claiming tags, purse sizes, earnings...or the "A" beat "B", and "B" beat "C", so "A" must beat "C" definition of "class". The trip handicapper too better be versed on the finer points of class and pace...otherwise, I don't envy his survival chances either. Expecting to beat this game by employing only one handicapping factor is akin to expecting to beat Magnus Carlsen in chess, simply by mastering a few cute opening moves.

You don't have to regard all the handicapping factors as "equals"...but you cannot afford to ignore any of them either, IMO. Those who say that they beat this game by just consulting their Ragozin sheets are lying, IMO. The game has gotten much more difficult to beat than that.

Again, for spot playing, I disagree. You may not be able to understand this type of approach because you don't agree with it, but it is possible to win with a simple approach.

Another example, let's say that you only bet one type of race, maiden claiming races, and you only bet on horses dropping out of MSW races, and you have a few simple rules that you use to find these spot plays. For instance, I have a method I use to handicap these races that does not look at pace or speed figures at all.

Some of you may not know this, and this is documented, but my two Best Bets at Roosevelt and Yonkers raceways (harness) showed a flat bet profit of 25% on a dollar for a 7 year period back in the good old days when I handicapped for Sports Eye, and the first two years on my own sheet when I went out on my own. The main reason why I was able to accomplish this was because as a young man I had an epiphany when I realized that I knew too much about handicapping for my own good. I was over handicapping, analyzing too many factors, and putting too much emphasis on handicapping factors that were not that important. I found that I needed to place most of the emphasis on the horse's last race. And I had to pick a lot of winning longshots.

Now that was during a time when harness racing was by far the best racing product for a smart handicapper and gambler. It's not as good now because of the speed bias, but that's another story.