what if one could figure comparable workout times?

[pandy]

Another test I've love to do is comparing first time starters who come out of the 2yo in training sales against yearling purchases. For instance, in the second at Belmont today, Miracle Girl worked 2 furlongs in 21.1 at the OBSMARCH sale and was purchased for $220,000. All of the other fillies in the race are either homebreds or were purchased as yearlings.

I picked Miracle Girl, partly because of the 21.1 and partly because I feel she has the best works in the field. Her potential may be on turf but I think she has a shot at a price today. Kathy put her son Michael up on this horse and she usually puts him on live horses.

Horses that are purchased as yearlings are purchased mainly based on pedigree but there's no proof they can run.

[raybo]

I've never cared a hoot how fast a horse worked. The reason? Some trainers never work fast, and trainer "intent" is what works are about, IMO. My own belief is that workouts should be considered in conjunction with race performance, to help determine form cycle. I like to "think like a trainer", starting with the most distant race, analyzing what part of the horse's "game" was weak or missing. Then look at the works (or race if no works available) after that race to see if the trainer had that weakness or weaknesses in mind with the type of works (or the type of race) that he put the horse through. Then in the next race analyze how successful the trainer's previous efforts were to that performance, and what weaknesses were displayed in that performance, then move to the works (or race) after that race and repeat the above.

When you work your way up to the horse's last race, and any works after that race, you should have a pretty good idea of the horse's current form cycle, and of the trainer's intent in entering him/her in today's race ("conditioning race" or "earnings race").

After a little practice all this can be done in a couple of minutes, or less, especially if you can automate some of it.

[pandy]

With horses that have raced, but with firsters, it's a different ballgame. I know many players don't bet firsters. A first time starter that works fast for a trainer that normally works them slow is a good sign, regardless of the trainer's stats.

A lot of longshot first time starters win for trainers that have bad first time starter stats. If a horse is faster than the other horses in the race, the trainer isn't going to make it slower.

[raybo]

Originally Posted by pandy

With horses that have raced, but with firsters, it's a different ballgame. I know many players don't bet firsters. A first time starter that works fast for a trainer that normally works them slow is a good sign, regardless of the trainer's stats.

A lot of longshot first time starters win for trainers that have bad first time starter stats. If a horse is faster than the other horses in the race, the trainer isn't going to make it slower.

I don't do FTS much, as a matter of fact, if there are 20% or more of a field that have no starts, or no "qualified" races (sprints for a sprint race, routes for a route race, dirt for a dirt race, turf for a turf race) from which to grade the animal, my program tells me to pass, and I do, because my record keeping tells me that these races are a net loss, for me.

[Capper Al]

Originally Posted by pandy

With horses that have raced, but with firsters, it's a different ballgame. I know many players don't bet firsters. A first time starter that works fast for a trainer that normally works them slow is a good sign, regardless of the trainer's stats.

A lot of longshot first time starters win for trainers that have bad first time starter stats. If a horse is faster than the other horses in the race, the trainer isn't going to make it slower.

Especially firsters, since they run their race their own way and are pretty much uncontrollable.

[ubercapper]

Not exactly about the topic of the thread but since it's about workouts I wanted to let everyone know that Equibase has added new data elements to the workout pages.

The main page for viewing workouts is http://www.equibase.com/static/worko...ex.html?SAP=TN

New elements include Trainer Name (from last race, or if horse is entered for upcoming race) and summary for most recent race (date, track, race type, finish position) with link to the chart for that race.

[Capper Al]

Originally Posted by ubercapper

Not exactly about the topic of the thread but since it's about workouts I wanted to let everyone know that Equibase has added new data elements to the workout pages.

The main page for viewing workouts is http://www.equibase.com/static/worko...ex.html?SAP=TN

New elements include Trainer Name (from last race, or if horse is entered for upcoming race) and summary for most recent race (date, track, race type, finish position) with link to the chart for that race.

Interesting. Thanks

[Longshot]

EquiSim has speed ratings for workouts. I use them in maiden races with first time starters and my hit rate is one of the highest of all races I bet.I find that the second workout back is the tip off in a lot of cases.Early in a meet like Oaklawn with lots of horses coming off long layoffs they are also very helpful.
I never use 3F works only 4F,5F and 6F works.

[pandy]

Originally Posted by Longshot

EquiSim has speed ratings for workouts. I use them in maiden races with first time starters and my hit rate is one of the highest of all races I bet.I find that the second workout back is the tip off in a lot of cases.Early in a meet like Oaklawn with lots of horses coming off long layoffs they are also very helpful.
I never use 3F works only 4F,5F and 6F works.

Great post, good information.

[whodoyoulike]

Originally Posted by ubercapper

Not exactly about the topic of the thread but since it's about workouts I wanted to let everyone know that Equibase has added new data elements to the workout pages.

The main page for viewing workouts is http://www.equibase.com/static/worko...ex.html?SAP=TN

New elements include Trainer Name (from last race, or if horse is entered for upcoming race) and summary for most recent race (date, track, race type, finish position) with link to the chart for that race.

I'm amazed how much info is available on the internet etc., but .....

how do you access this Equibase workout info option?

When I pull up the Equibase website I see:

1) PPs
2) Selections
3) Reports
4) Entries
5) Results
6) Stats
7) Horsemen
8) More


Is it part of a subscription service?

Thanks,

[Tom]

Free - it is here.

http://www.equibase.com/static/workout/

Look under Entries, then under Other, third column, fist option.

[whodoyoulike]

Thanks Tom. I should explore the Equibase, DRF and other websites more. I just go to the options which I'm familiar.

[pandy]

Originally Posted by pandy

With horses that have raced, but with firsters, it's a different ballgame. I know many players don't bet firsters. A first time starter that works fast for a trainer that normally works them slow is a good sign, regardless of the trainer's stats.

A lot of longshot first time starters win for trainers that have bad first time starter stats. If a horse is faster than the other horses in the race, the trainer isn't going to make it slower.

Not redboarding, I did not have this horse, but case in point about trainer stats with firsters, Lucky Lurie just won at first asking, 12-1 ML, went off as the favorite and trainer Mark Hennig was 2% with firsters from a large sampling, but the NYBRED filly, who is by new sire Girolamo (A P Indy), was a "clocker's special" hot horse based on the workouts.

[Capper Al]

Originally Posted by pandy

Not redboarding, I did not have this horse, but case in point about trainer stats with firsters, Lucky Lurie just won at first asking, 12-1 ML, went off as the favorite and trainer Mark Hennig was 2% with firsters from a large sampling, but the NYBRED filly, who is by new sire Girolamo (A P Indy), was a "clocker's special" hot horse based on the workouts.

Thanks for the update. NY tracks frequently surprise me with the crowd knowing something that someone just handicapping off the form wouldn't know.