Mike Beer and Andy Serling are both trying to beat American Pharoah

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by porchy44

Why are you wrong ? A horse can still win and you can be still right about the horse being an underlay.

I agree. We should be more forgiving of ourselves when our opinions of individual races don't quite pan out. The long run is what counts.

[whodoyoulike]

Originally Posted by pandy

... Who wants to listen to someone who always picks the obvious favorite?

As long as the obvious favorite wins, I wouldn't mind.

[whodoyoulike]

Originally Posted by aaron

I am not against anyone betting against him. I simply am saying if you thought he could not lose,then you shouldn't have been betting against him.

I agree with you on this and if he is not worth the risk then pass.

[depalma113]

I want a horse that turns a guaranteed pick four, into a guaranteed pick three.

In the last two years of the Triple Crown, 5 out of 6 times it has paid off.

To me that is value.

[lamboguy]

as it turns out, most of the professional handicapper's under rated the chances of AMERICAN PHAROAH mainly because there were plenty of fresh horses in the race and that is what has been winning Belmont stakes lately. no doubt its been tough to keep the weight on horses through that grueling campaign. a trainer could not have asked for anything more from a horse than the way AMERICAN PHAROAH trained and acted throughout the whole triple crown campaign.

even more amazing this time around was that i did not have a knock on any of the other horses training into the race. that is another reason why so many took a chance to beat him. i can't remember a Belmont stake race that was as tough as this one was and the winner just glided through the race.

[OCF]

I bet against AP in all three TC races, have no regrets (other than I didn't enjoy his Belmont stretch run as much as I would have otherwise), will continue to do so in similar situations in the future.

[DeltaLover]

Originally Posted by OCF

I bet against AP in all three TC races, have no regrets (other than I didn't enjoy his Belmont stretch run as much as I would have otherwise), will continue to do so in similar situations in the future.

I see absolutely nothing wrong with what you are doing.. Having a contrarian opinion about a huge favourite, is one of the fundamental aspects of the game..

As a bettor you are entitled to your opinion and you can always hope for something exceptional to happen, so you can hit a large payoff..

Still, it this is not the same to the way a professional and public handicapper should operate; he should base his selections on logic and relative data and not try for superficial results just to cultivate his fame..

[Robert Fischer]

In the Derby, there were some people who didn't recognize that American Pharaoah was a dominant horse.
After takeout, he still paid $7.80.
That was enough of a deal, for a small player like myself to go ahead and bet all the money that I had in my ADW account to win.

In the Preakness (and Belmont), The Public had reached the point of being able to clearly see that American Pharaoh was a dominant horse.

After takeout, you had no real way of beating Public Opinion. You either had to pass the race, or agree with everyone, bet a lot, and give the track most of the good money via takeout before splitting up the scraps.

The value has to come from somewhere, and when the public is right about a heavy-fav, it doesn't leave a lot of value in the pools.

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

In the Derby, there were some people who didn't recognize that American Pharaoah was a dominant horse.
After takeout, he still paid $7.80.
That was enough of a deal, for a small player like myself to go ahead and bet all the money that I had in my ADW account to win.

In the Preakness (and Belmont), The Public had reached the point of being able to clearly see that American Pharaoh was a dominant horse.

After takeout, you had no real way of beating Public Opinion. You either had to pass the race, or agree with everyone, bet a lot, and give the track most of the good money via takeout before splitting up the scraps.

The value has to come from somewhere, and when the public is right about a heavy-fav, it doesn't leave a lot of value in the pools.

nice to see you back

[DeltaLover]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

In the Derby, there were some people who didn't recognize that American Pharaoah was a dominant horse.
After takeout, he still paid $7.80.
That was enough of a deal, for a small player like myself to go ahead and bet all the money that I had in my ADW account to win.
[

This is how a horse player should always be thinking

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

nice to see you back

Thanks Lambo. At home now.

Originally Posted by DeltaLover

This is how a horse player should always be thinking

The main point there, is that takeout is hard to overcome, so when you find yourself agreeing with the public it is generally time to pass the race.

Hard to criticize Serling or Beer, as they are public handicappers. It could be argued that "Pass" wasn't an option, and that bet against AP for a huge score was a better public choice than bet on AP for pennies...

[pandy]

Originally Posted by DeltaLover

If you want to put it in this way, then I do not think I suggested them to lie but just to make a better handicapping job, than going against the obvious and failing so miserably

Delta Lover, this thread and your opinion that the Belmont handicappers should have picked American Pharoah is one of the most ridiculous things I've ever heard. I'm surprised that Pace didn't take it down. Nothing you've said about this makes any sense. Nothing.

I've been in a similar position, making picks as part of the industry. Years ago, for instance, a pacer named Somebeachsomewhere, who won 20 of 21 starts, came into the $1 million dollar Meadowlands pace undefeated with a world record of 1:46.4 and looked unbeatable, to most people. I picked him second behind a horse named Art Official because I thought that Art Official was peaking and the 1-5 favorite may get used harder than he had been. Art Official beat him on the wire and paid $28. I gave this pick out on the website of the USTA, the governing body of harness racing. Should I have lied to the public and picked against the horse I was going to bet simply because it was a great horse? Of course not. The reason why I have the job in the first place is because I can pick horses like that, which is the same reason why Andy and Mike have their jobs.

After the race, sure, we know AP won but many others have lost including a horses named Spectacular Bid, Smarty Jones, and several others that looked unbeatable. As for some weird notion that it looks bad for the industry, or whatever, that simply makes no sense whatsoever.

[DeltaLover]

Originally Posted by pandy

Delta Lover, this thread and your opinion that the Belmont handicappers should have picked American Pharoah is one of the most ridiculous things I've ever heard. I'm surprised that Pace didn't take it down. Nothing you've said about this makes any sense. Nothing.

I've been in a similar position, making picks as part of the industry. Years ago, for instance, a pacer named Somebeachsomewhere, who won 20 of 21 starts, came into the $1 million dollar Meadowlands pace undefeated with a world record of 1:46.4 and looked unbeatable, to most people. I picked him second behind a horse named Art Official because I thought that Art Official was peaking and the 1-5 favorite may get used harder than he had been. Art Official beat him on the wire and paid $28. I gave this pick out on the website of the USTA, the governing body of harness racing. Should I have lied to the public and picked against the horse I was going to bet simply because it was a great horse? Of course not. The reason why I have the job in the first place is because I can pick horses like that, which is the same reason why Andy and Mike have their jobs.

After the race, sure, we know AP won but many others have lost including a horses named Spectacular Bid, Smarty Jones, and several others that looked unbeatable. As for some weird notion that it looks bad for the industry, or whatever, that simply makes no sense whatsoever.

I think I presented my views as clear as possible. You think that I say not make sense.

Fine, this is your opinion and of course I completely respect your rights to say, express and believe anything you like..

I am also entitled in own opinions and I do not understand your surprise about PA not taking my thread down.

Does this mean that I need to agree with your views, in order to not been taken down?

I also find your statements about having a job because you can find a certain type of horses a little hilarious! By the way, if this is the case and you really believe it, then why you need to have an employer and even more than this, why you need to publish books exposing your handicapping wisdom to the wide public?

[pandy]

Originally Posted by DeltaLover

I think I presented my views as clear as possible. You think that I say not make sense.

Fine, this is your opinion and of course I completely respect your rights to say, express and believe anything you like..

I am also entitled in own opinions and I do not understand your surprise about PA not taking my thread down.

Does this mean that I need to agree with your views, in order to not been taken down?

I also find your statements about having a job because you can find a certain type of horses a little hilarious! By the way, if this is the case and you really believe it, then why you need to have an employer and even more than this, why you need to publish books exposing your handicapping wisdom to the wide public?

I'm self employed, but believe me, as someone who has been in the business for over 40 years, a prominent company like NYRA wants talent, that's why they always have one of the top announcers in the sport, and that's why they have Andy, he's talented. What you wrote is not only ridiculous, it's insulting.

Almost every freelance handicapping job I've had, including TV, print, radio, etc., they called me. You know why? Because I've picked a lot of longshot winners. Anyone can pick the favorite.

Sometimes when an opinion is so ridiculous, yes, it should be erased.

[DeltaLover]

Originally Posted by pandy

I'm self employed, but believe me, as someone who has been in the business for over 40 years, a prominent company like NYRA wants talent, that's why they always have one of the top announcers in the sport, and that's why they have Andy, he's talented. What you wrote is not only ridiculous, it's insulting.

Almost every freelance handicapping job I've had, including TV, print, radio, etc., they called me. You know why? Because I've picked a lot of longshot winners. Anyone can pick the favorite.

Sometimes when an opinion is so ridiculous, yes, it should be erased.

Since I almost never follow public handicappers and their picks, I have to admit that I do not have enough input to doubt the abilities of Andy. More than this, at no point I have had the intention of insulting anyone, in contrary, I am always very careful to avoid this kind of a behaviour.

Based in you professional relation with the industry, your views seem to be biased and subjective; most likely, this should be the reason why, instead of using logic and facts who seem to be rather emotional and prejudiced!

As far as erasing my post, I was never a fan of censorship, a procedure that you appear to be fond of.