How do the Europeans Handicap?

[OTM Al]

Class handicapping is my main tool. Figure out who fits the race best and toss the rest. If you can narrow it down well, then make the bet. I actually enjoy it more than US racing.

[horses4courses]

Originally Posted by Capper Al

The fact is that outside the US and Canada, favorites come in at similar rates. Does this disqualify all the extra information that is used in North America as unnecessary?

No.
Is some of it overkill?
Very likely.

There are not 2 racetracks in the UK, Ireland, or France
that are identical in contour, shape, or surface.
Some right handed, some left. Some uphill, some down.
Even if you just stick to one track there, the condition of
the turf can vary widely from one race day to another.

So many more variables at their biggest tracks than in the US.
The tracks with the most constants are their artificial surface tracks.
That's where you get some uniformity.

[horses4courses]

Originally Posted by OTM Al

Class handicapping is my main tool. Figure out who fits the race best and toss the rest. If you can narrow it down well, then make the bet. I actually enjoy it more than US racing.

I enjoy the racing there, too.
The problem for me is the large takeout.
Horses are regularly paying 10-40% lower than returned odds over there.
Makes it too tough.

[cj]

Originally Posted by Capper Al

The fact is that outside the US and Canada, favorites come in at similar rates. Does this disqualify all the extra information that is used in North America as unnecessary?

As many have tried to tell you, there really isn't a lot of extra information. I would say those in Hong Kong and Japan actually have MORE information.

[classhandicapper]

I have been going back and forth between comparative class handicapping and using pace/speed figures for years. I've noticed very little difference in my results other than coming up with different winners on occasions.

I've been trying to combine them to produce optimal results for decades.

Right now I am in the early stages of studying it more formerly. So far my basic class ratings are outperforming final time speed figures very slightly both in win% and ROI. I don't know if that will last, but they will clearly be close. I've made very little progress combining them to get much better result. At least not enough progress to be certain of anything. All I can tell you is that when they agree, the horses are iron. The prices also plummet.

I think both methods are valid and both have some flaws. In the end a good set of speed figures works well and good classing techniques will work well. I think the The Euros tend to be more comparative class oriented and do just fine.

[Capper Al]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I have been going back and forth between comparative class handicapping and using pace/speed figures for years. I've noticed very little difference in my results other than coming up with different winners on occasions.

I've been trying to combine them to produce optimal results for decades.

Right now I am in the early stages of studying it more formerly. So far my basic class ratings are outperforming final time speed figures very slightly both in win% and ROI. I don't know if that will last, but they will clearly be close. I've made very little progress combining them to get much better result. At least not enough progress to be certain of anything. All I can tell you is that when they agree, the horses are iron. The prices also plummet.

I think both methods are valid and both have some flaws. In the end a good set of speed figures works well and good classing techniques will work well. I think the The Euros tend to be more comparative class oriented and do just fine.

It appears that way. Are your class figs speed based or dollar based?

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Capper Al

It appears that way. Are your class figs speed based or dollar based?

I assign a numerical value for each class level.

[Capper Al]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I assign a numerical value for each class level.

Have you tried BRIS' Race Rating, a.k.a RR?

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Capper Al

Have you tried BRIS' Race Rating, a.k.a RR?

I haven't looked at their ratings but I always read the threads on the subject.

[Krudler]

Originally Posted by OTM Al

Class handicappi[IMG]ng is my main tool. Figure out who fits the race best and toss the rest. If you can narrow it down well, then make the bet. I actually enjoy it more than US racing.

Mark Cramer's latest book, [B]Handicapping on the Road[/B, focuses primarily on handicapping in France during the author's 2010 cycling trip around that country. He presents a class and trainer based system to determine "who fits the race best". It's a compelling read that details a methodology applicable to racing in North America, as well.

I find the Short Form particularly useful in determining playable races - races in which 1/2 or more of the horses don't meet one or both of the class or trainer criteria.

You can find details on the book here at the Altiplano Publcations website.

Krudler

[romankoz]

Hi all,
This is my first post to the site. I am from Australia.

In Australia the win percentage for favourites is also around the 30% figure. Naturally, it will differ from year to year but seldom by anything more than 5% which I would suspect is the same world wide.

It is a statistic that amazes me and I have been betting for close to fifty years. When I started betting we never had beaten margins on horses that finished fifth or worse yet the figures were about the same as they are now when every breath a horse takes seems to be measured by someone somehow.

I noticed some discussion re the elimination of false favourites being the "secret" to successful betting and, of course, it is so. However, as was stated you must have a track record which suggests you know what you are talking about when it comes to eliminating favourites. It is especially true if you lay them on Betfair. The 2/1 starting price favourite with our bookmakers needs to be layed close to 5/2 on Betfair which means you need the 2/1 favourite to be winning at 27% or less to profit for starters and then you also need to factor in their 6.5% take on your profit if you are correct.

To my way of thinking you must know how to treat favourites. In some races they are excellent bets, in others awful and in others somewhere in between. The ones that bother me are the in between ones.

If you have any questions on Australian horseracing just ask.

[traynor]

Originally Posted by romankoz

Hi all,
This is my first post to the site. I am from Australia.

In Australia the win percentage for favourites is also around the 30% figure. Naturally, it will differ from year to year but seldom by anything more than 5% which I would suspect is the same world wide.

It is a statistic that amazes me and I have been betting for close to fifty years. When I started betting we never had beaten margins on horses that finished fifth or worse yet the figures were about the same as they are now when every breath a horse takes seems to be measured by someone somehow.

I noticed some discussion re the elimination of false favourites being the "secret" to successful betting and, of course, it is so. However, as was stated you must have a track record which suggests you know what you are talking about when it comes to eliminating favourites. It is especially true if you lay them on Betfair. The 2/1 starting price favourite with our bookmakers needs to be layed close to 5/2 on Betfair which means you need the 2/1 favourite to be winning at 27% or less to profit for starters and then you also need to factor in their 6.5% take on your profit if you are correct.

To my way of thinking you must know how to treat favourites. In some races they are excellent bets, in others awful and in others somewhere in between. The ones that bother me are the in between ones.

If you have any questions on Australian horseracing just ask.

What is the best current source (public, private, or otherwise) for past performances with internal fractions (position and beaten lengths at specific points) with times for those fractions?

[traynor]

What criteria do you use to determine whether a horse is a legitimate favorite/contender or a "false" favorite/contender?

[romankoz]

Hi Traynor,
Google Vince Accardi His site/service is at www.dailysectionals.com

If you can find any podcast from him via rsn.net.au (try this site and see if you can find him).

If you can listen he will amaze you with the apparent depth of how he delves into times.

I typed "where to find sectionals for victorian horseracing" into Google. Some options elsewhere.

www.trackdata.com.au/RaceSectionals.aspSectional Times (Pay), Racing & Sports (Free), Fagan's Service (Pay). AUSTRALIA. A Bettor Edge (Pay). Australian Turf Club (Free), Sky Racing (Free) ...

racingandsports.com.au
skyracing.com.au

Looks like they have something. I am not a times man so am a tad vague but Vince Accardi stands out in Oz as long as you don't mind paying a bit.

Hope this helps

I think racing.com have sectionals as part of their results service. Logging on is a bit clunky

[romankoz]

My biggest query about a favourite starts at ability at this distance at this class.

From there it's ability first run (first up) from a break at this class.

Quite often you see a well fancied runner at say 3/1 or less that causes immediate concern when violating the above.

From there a race map helps as I try to determine where the horse will be in the run and whether a slow early pace makes the difference for a mid fielder or get back type or whether a wide barrier with inside speed worries me.

From there track conditions and track layout are gimmes with individuality of each horse paramount.

This gets me started.