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Old 06-04-2015, 12:57 PM   #46
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Originally Posted by Capper Al
If one uses someone else's software or their own, they are going to have to figure out for themselves on how to win.
This is one of the only things that make a lot of sense in this thread so far (I have not read it all yet). Other people that write software of publish systems etc., know that subject, so anyone buying that source must learn what the author already knows. You have to make it your own.
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Old 06-04-2015, 01:39 PM   #47
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It's perfectly fine with me if you disagree with me all day long. I only offer my opinions here...and it doesn't bother me in the least if people disagree with me. Disagreements are the engines which power the best debates...and I love to debate.

In my book, I tell the truth...and nothing but the truth. There is no bullshit in my book about "turning losing players into winners", as some of the other popular books claim...which might be the reason why I have such a hard time getting published. All I can do in the book is impart some useful advice to the reader...but knowledge alone won't turn that reader into a winner. Do you suppose that all the obese people wobbling around out there are in the state they are in because they lack the "knowledge" needed to lose the extra weight that they carry?

"Knowledge" and "wisdom" are different things, friend...and you need WISDOM to beat this game. And wisdom isn't something that you can go out and buy...
I don't enjoy debating because the majority of my opinions are based on facts and the others just haven't been proven as yet.
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Old 06-04-2015, 01:52 PM   #48
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Originally Posted by traynor
One of the most difficult concepts to grasp is that what one believes to be "true" is little more than a subjective interpretation of a (very) nebulous external reality. Chasing Truth-with-a-big-T has consumed the thoughts of many throughout history. Some (very few) are fortunate enough to realize that what they believe to be Ultimate Truth is little more than a personal opinion. And, as everyone knows, opinions are like noses. Everyone (or almost everyone) has one.
I never spoke of the Truth..."with a big T"...nor do I ever mention "Ultimate Truth" in my discussions here. In fact...I go out of my way to point out that what I offer here is my personal opinion...which is based on many years of active participation in this game -- while using "real money".

If you have an argument to make, then make it...but please don't put words in my mouth.
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Old 06-04-2015, 01:53 PM   #49
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Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz
I am so glad there will finally be someone who publishes something worth reading, all the others having no value and all.

No...the others may indeed have some value, for some people. But, IMO, the "value" gets lost amidst all the wild exaggerations.
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Old 06-04-2015, 02:02 PM   #50
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Originally Posted by thaskalos
No...the others may indeed have some value, for some people. But, IMO, the "value" gets lost amidst all the wild exaggerations.
What wild exaggerations?
Did Quinn make any in his books? Davidowitz? Beyer? Quirrin?
I would be hard pressed to name any books by reputable authors that make any such claims. I have found great value in ideas from these authors - and CJ and Dave and Niko - that I have taken and modified for my own style of play.
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Old 06-04-2015, 02:24 PM   #51
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Originally Posted by Tom
What wild exaggerations?
Hmm? You're saying that Thaskalos is wildly exaggerating about respected handicapping authors.
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Old 06-04-2015, 02:46 PM   #52
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Originally Posted by Tom
What wild exaggerations?
Did Quinn make any in his books? Davidowitz? Beyer? Quirrin?
I would be hard pressed to name any books by reputable authors that make any such claims. I have found great value in ideas from these authors - and CJ and Dave and Niko - that I have taken and modified for my own style of play.
Beyer exaggerated when he declared that his speed figures were "the way, the truth and the light". Quinn is the guy who, while unable to beat the game himself, states in his books that a 1.25 ROI is still possible for those who follow his handicapping advice. Dick Mitchell was the guy who considered the racetracks to be his own private ATM...where he could go to make a withdraw whenever he needed some extra money. I heard the words right out of his mouth...and I cringed. Of course...he subsequently gave up the game altogether...and went back to teaching math.

William L. Scott wrote three handicapping books, which were hailed for their profitability by some of the most popular handicapping authors of our game. Alas...those three books only enriched Mr. Scott. William Quirin was hired by a legendary gambler to do computer research on thoroughbred racing, to see if a computer system could be found to beat this game. The very same legendary gambler who hired Quirin has said in interviews that none of the systems that their research uncovered proved profitable after extensive testing...but this didn't stop Mr. Quirin from publishing his "highly profitable" findings on his own...while using scant testing. Not surprisingly...he too has given up on this game altogether.

In gambling...you can't take someone to a place where you've never been. You have to be a winning player YOURSELF...before you can presume to teach another player how to beat this game. And even then...you will probably not succeed in turning him into a winner. When it comes to gambling, the important things can't really be "taught" by another. They must be "self-taught"...in my opinion, at least.
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Old 06-04-2015, 03:25 PM   #53
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Originally Posted by raybo
This is one of the only things that make a lot of sense in this thread so far (I have not read it all yet). Other people that write software of publish systems etc., know that subject, so anyone buying that source must learn what the author already knows. You have to make it your own.
I'm glad we agree.
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Old 06-04-2015, 07:29 PM   #54
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The Beyers WERE the way, the truth, the light until they became widely available. I made a flat bet profit betting the top Beyer, no other handicapping for along time.
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Old 06-04-2015, 08:56 PM   #55
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Originally Posted by Tom
The Beyers WERE the way, the truth, the light until they became widely available. I made a flat bet profit betting the top Beyer, no other handicapping for along time.
You were not the only one.
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Old 06-04-2015, 10:12 PM   #56
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The Beyers WERE the way, the truth, the light until they became widely available. I made a flat bet profit betting the top Beyer, no other handicapping for along time.
I can relate in a slightly different way.

I was solidly profitable until the Beyer Number was available in the DRF in 1993, I believe.

The reason was that while the rest of the world was concentrating on the last 2 pacelines I was (on average) going 6 lines back to find that "special" race.

When the Beyer showed up, suddenly those 8-lines-back standout races glowed in the dark and almost overnight I saw my $12 standout horses paying $6.

Took me almost 4 years to become profitable again.
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Old 06-05-2015, 01:55 AM   #57
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On the topic of a plan to win, a quote from Joost Meerloo:
""And yet one day men will have to grow up. Compared with the long ages of human existence on earth, our civilization is in its infancy. Sooner or later we must be ready to leave the dreamland of childhood, where imagination finds unlimited scope, and take our place in a world of limited freedoms. That world however, can in the long run give us something better than any vision conjured up in childhood." – Total War and the Human Mind, 1944."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joost_Meerloo

Lots of thought provoking material on how one's perceptions are shaped and formed by various stimuli--including one's own thought processes. Meerloo's Rape of the Mind is a classic on brainwashing.

Why is this relevant to horse racing? If one wants to win, one had best be able to see what is really out there--not what someone tells them is out there. Especially if that person's advice was formed from a mix of his or her own perceptions, and what yet another person told them was out there.

People tend to see and hear what they expect to see and hear. Or, on a good day, what they want to see and hear. If one is betting on one's perceptions, it helps to keep those perceptions as uncorrupted as possible by preconceptions, misconceptions, and downright balderdash. It should come as no great surprise to anyone that the more subjective filters a person has in place to process external stimuli, the less capable that person is of such niceties as trip handicapping, observational handicapping, and related areas. Of course, that is just my own personal, highly subjective opinion.

I like to travel. Especially outside the borders of lala land. It is a beautiful world out there, filled with fascinating people, places, and experiences. I consider it the reward for doing a good job of analyzing races. And betting accordingly.
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Old 06-05-2015, 01:27 PM   #58
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The start of a plan to win should be what everyone should have learned as a young boy (or girl). "Playing" is pretend. When the game is over, one's marbles are returned to their rightful owner, and those "playing dead" get up to play another day. The alternative is "for keeps." If one's marbles are lost, one has lost them--they are not returned when the game is over. The dead get buried and are soon forgotten.

Most young boys (and girls) encounter those who advocate "playing" when they intend the results to be "for keeps"--and learn at a very early age to avoid such.

When the day comes that I lose a very large wager on a photo finish and the mutuel clerk says, "Oh, here, sir, here is your money back. We were only pretending." I will consider wagering on horse races as "playing a game." Until that day, it is what it is. War.
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Old 06-05-2015, 02:04 PM   #59
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Oh, come now...

Quote:
Originally Posted by traynor
The start of a plan to win should be what everyone should have learned as a young boy (or girl). "Playing" is pretend. When the game is over, one's marbles are returned to their rightful owner, and those "playing dead" get up to play another day. The alternative is "for keeps." If one's marbles are lost, one has lost them--they are not returned when the game is over. The dead get buried and are soon forgotten.

Most young boys (and girls) encounter those who advocate "playing" when they intend the results to be "for keeps"--and learn at a very early age to avoid such.

When the day comes that I lose a very large wager on a photo finish and the mutuel clerk says, "Oh, here, sir, here is your money back. We were only pretending." I will consider wagering on horse races as "playing a game." Until that day, it is what it is. War.
I have spent a life around tables where cards granted and took away fortunes...and all the participants had no problem describing themselves as "players". But a horseplayer wagers a little money on a horse, usually from the comfort of his own home...and he calls it "WAR"?

You lose irreplaceable LIMBS, when you fight a war...
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Old 06-05-2015, 02:08 PM   #60
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Quote:
Originally Posted by traynor
The start of a plan to win should be what everyone should have learned as a young boy (or girl). "Playing" is pretend. When the game is over, one's marbles are returned to their rightful owner, and those "playing dead" get up to play another day. The alternative is "for keeps." If one's marbles are lost, one has lost them--they are not returned when the game is over. The dead get buried and are soon forgotten.

Most young boys (and girls) encounter those who advocate "playing" when they intend the results to be "for keeps"--and learn at a very early age to avoid such.

When the day comes that I lose a very large wager on a photo finish and the mutuel clerk says, "Oh, here, sir, here is your money back. We were only pretending." I will consider wagering on horse races as "playing a game." Until that day, it is what it is. War.
Yup, we played marbles almost daily when I was a kid, always "for keeps". I learned early on that all I had to do was, be patient, all the marbles would end up in my bag, eventually.
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