American Pharoah breeding rights sold

[Relwob Owner]

Originally Posted by depalma113

Absolutely not.

Being the only Triple Crown winner, his stud value would not be tarnished if he lost later. The only thing that will tarnish his value is if his offspring don't impress.

Have to disagree. He wins the Triple Crown and then races 3 or 4 times the rest of the year and doesn't win and that won't tarnish his value? How can it not tarnish his value compared with winning the TC and then not running again?

[Rex Phinney]

Originally Posted by Relwob Owner

Have to disagree. He wins the Triple Crown and then races 3 or 4 times the rest of the year and doesn't win and that won't tarnish his value? How can it not tarnish his value compared with winning the TC and then not running again?

Agreed. If he wins Belmont he is done, period.

If it was Coburn and Martin or ole Jess Jackson we were talking about maybe it would be different. But with the breeding rights being sold already, Justin Zayat saying no offers would be accepted (a day before an offer was accepted) what about this owner would make anyone think anything different?

AP Dam is already sold
More of Pioneer of the Nile was sold during AP run.
What in the world would make people think Zayat has plans on doing anything EXCEPT cashing ASAP? He has done everything to show he wants the breeding $$$ ASAP and nothing to show he would promote extending the horses career.

The writing is on the wall, anyone who thinks this colt keeps going after Belmont is just not reading it.

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by pandy

I'm not saying that they're stupid. They're smart making this move because they know that the chances of winning the TCrown are not good. But, if this was a horse like Affirmed, Seattle Slew, or Secretariat, they probably would have waited. Don't think for a second that Bob Baffert and Zayat don't look at speed figures, individual splits, etc. These guys use numbers to help them figure out where to place horses. I'm sure Jerry Brown (Thoroughgraph) has many owners and trainers who buy his numbers. They know that AP is not running that fast and it makes sense to take the money now in case he's exposed later.

Wrong. Jerry Brown gave AP one of the best figures than any horse has ever earned in the Derby.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by pandy

I'm not saying that they're stupid. They're smart making this move because they know that the chances of winning the TCrown are not good. But, if this was a horse like Affirmed, Seattle Slew, or Secretariat, they probably would have waited. Don't think for a second that Bob Baffert and Zayat don't look at speed figures, individual splits, etc. These guys use numbers to help them figure out where to place horses. I'm sure Jerry Brown (Thoroughgraph) has many owners and trainers who buy his numbers. They know that AP is not running that fast and it makes sense to take the money now in case he's exposed later.

They don't care about Secretariat.

They've got a horse that's as good as Bernardini, Curlin and Big Brown. They've got a solid pedigree, they've got a Derby winner, and they've got what most estimate between 25% and 60% of winning the Belmont, thus giving them the Triple Crown and all of it's spoils.

None of that other stuff is relevant. Nobody is scared of 'being exposed'.
Everybody thinks this is super-star.
Even on the wild theory that they thought this was some 'mediocre' horse who kept getting super lucky winning all these races while being heavily favored, and he ran mid-pack in the Belmont, - they'd simply retire him if that was the case. He'd have instant demand.
There's literally no chance that he could be exposed at this point.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by depalma113

Absolutely not.

Being the only Triple Crown winner, his stud value would not be tarnished if he lost later. The only thing that will tarnish his value is if his offspring don't impress.

He'd have to enter an allowance race that allowed for the weight of the huge insurance premiums to be on his back.

It would be fun for the Zayats to show off their star and sweep the preps and the Breeders Cup Classic, but logic says the horse is basically a certainty of being retired.