The Problem with Morning Lines

[Capper Al]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

In my 34 years in the game, I have been appreciateetermine what the morning line is good for. It doesn't portray the opinion of the odds-maker...and it seldom represents the opinion of the betting public. I can't even understand why horse racing needs an opening line to begin with. Opening lines are needed in sports betting, because they are fixed targets that the early bettors take aim at. But the racetrack's parimutuel style of betting renders morning lines totally insignificant...in my opinion at least. Most of them are so inept...that even the novices would be better off without them.

The ML is the opening flash on the tote-board. And I do appreciate a track local's opinion.

[Capper Al]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

Smart money is part of the bigger category of "Unexpected Odds Behavior"

UOB is made up of 3 things = Smart Money and/or Randomness and/or Errors that you made in your Odds Line.


Any bettor who claims to have found 'value' must have an odds line for at least 1 horse(his horse), if not the whole field. Odds is part of the value equation.

It is possible to use the Morning Line, but these lines are often poorly done. Much better to use your own ML or an improvement on the linemaker's ML.

Then if the actual betting public does not behave according to the ML, you have 3 possibilities: Smart Money and/or Randomness and/or Error.

To know what is unexpected behavior, one first needs to know what is expected- also known as the Morning Line.
H

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by Capper Al

To know what is unexpected behavior, one first needs to know what is expected- also known as the Morning Line.
H

Exactly.

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

Smart money is part of the bigger category of "Unexpected Odds Behavior"

UOB is made up of 3 things = Smart Money and/or Randomness and/or Errors that you made in your Odds Line.


Any bettor who claims to have found 'value' must have an odds line for at least 1 horse(his horse), if not the whole field. Odds is part of the value equation.

It is possible to use the Morning Line, but these lines are often poorly done. Much better to use your own ML or an improvement on the linemaker's ML.

Then if the actual betting public does not behave according to the ML, you have 3 possibilities: Smart Money and/or Randomness and/or Error.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Capper Al

The ML is the opening flash on the tote-board. And I do appreciate a track local's opinion.

Opinion of WHAT?

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Capper Al

To know what is unexpected behavior, one first needs to know what is expected- also known as the Morning Line.
H

If the morning line was indeed an indication of "expected behavior", then you might have a point. But it seldom is. Horses who have 4/5 written all over them are put up at odds of 2/1 or 5/2...while 40-1 impossibilities are tantalizingly listed at odds of 12/1.

Hardly "expected behavior"...IMO.

[TJDave]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

If the morning line was indeed an indication of "expected behavior", then you might have a point. But it seldom is. Horses who have 4/5 written all over them are put up at odds of 2/1 or 5/2...while 40-1 impossibilities are tantalizingly listed at odds of 12/1.

Hardly "expected behavior"...IMO.

The "expected behavior" is betting into the pools. Listing a 40-1 shot at 12/1 does exactly that.

[Capper Al]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Opinion of WHAT?

I hope the trackman hangs around his local track and, therefore, has a little better insight than mechanical processes like BRIS Prime.

[Flysofree]

Originally Posted by Capper Al

I hope the trackman hangs around his local track and, therefore, has a little better insight than mechanical processes like BRIS Prime.

That is the question. Does the trackman actually hang around the track or is their some sort of mechanical ranking by whoever puts up the morning line figure? I assume it is a person but you never see their name listed, unless I'm not looking in the right place.

[Capper Al]

Originally Posted by Flysofree

That is the question. Does the trackman actually hang around the track or is their some sort of mechanical ranking by whoever puts up the morning line figure? I assume it is a person but you never see their name listed, unless I'm not looking in the right place.

Some trackmen are well known. I usually find that the trackmen have a healthy difference of opinion in maiden and claiming races. They sometimes can help with European horses coming over.

[Stillriledup]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

If the morning line was indeed an indication of "expected behavior", then you might have a point. But it seldom is. Horses who have 4/5 written all over them are put up at odds of 2/1 or 5/2...while 40-1 impossibilities are tantalizingly listed at odds of 12/1.

Hardly "expected behavior"...IMO.

The "Behavior" is often influenced by not wanting to "insult" trainers that they entered badly. Its also influenced by things like not wanting the race to be "unplayable" so the ML guy will make a horse who is a 1-5 shot 2-1 when if he made the 1-5 shot 1-5, people might just skip the race and not spend time handicapping it.

[EQUIPACE]

Originally Posted by therussmeister

The problem with morning lines is people read them and assign the figures some sort of value in their handicapping and betting methodology.

I have to admit that at one time I created a point system that gave points to the 1st 4 ML choices. Why? Because just as the winner comes out of the 1st 4 post odds choices roughly 80% of the time... a good line maker (And I do mean he has to be good) should be able to do the same.

Let's face it, at certain tracks, I have often asked myself where did this guy come up with this line?

Joe Kristufek (Arlington Park's Line Maker)
I think has a good article explaining his job...

Check It Out!


John
~¿o

[Dave Schwartz]

Some trackmen are well known.

First thing that jumped into my head was "Name 3."

[Robert Fischer]

this should help some, bore others, and be something to deny for others, but it seems necessary after reading some responses in here:

We must remember that even in an internet message board, not everything is subjective. Not everything is a matter of opinion, there are right things and wrong things.

MORNING LINE FACTS:

1) The stated intent of the Morning Line is an estimate of the final odds. (in basic terms, the ML= What the oddsmaker thinks the horses will go off as)

2) The morning line is often perverted by Heavy favorites

3) Because of fact #2, and because of occasionally having more insight into the estimated odds than the linemaker, it is better to make your OWN ML.

4) There is a common misconception that Morning Line odds have something to do with a track linemaker's 'opinion'. They do not. The ML's job is to estimate the odds of the horses at off.

5) Fact #4 has an exception - There are at least one or two linemakers who believe the misconception of fact #4, and thus erroneously factor their opinion of the ability of the horse into their line.

6) There may also be a misconception that the odds literally 'open' on the tote starting from the ML. They do not. Odds always reflect the pool amount in betting.

7) feel free to add on

[Robert Fischer]

The only reason that a good Morning Line(and by good ML, I mean one that you have made or tweaked yourself) is important for a horseplayer is for dealing with UNEXPECTED ODDS BEHAVIOR or UOB.

U.O.B.


There are 2 ways to play this game
A) gamble
B) attempt to profit by betting value


The ONLY way to profit by betting value is to buy bets that are worth more than they cost.
what? WTF? buy bets? worth?
The only way to do that is to correctly estimate two things that are both very difficult.
1)The chances of a specific bet paying out
2)The final odds of that specfic bet

It's the only way.


What is UOB, and why does it make the ML important?

Because when you estimate those two things, they also reflect your level of insight.
The Morning Line and the Tote Odds are the only thing that you get in 'Real Time' before you bet. Before you spend the money. Before you buy the bet. Think about that for a second and appreciate it.

When the Odds Behave differently from what you Expected, this is telling you in real time, that you WERE WRONG.

Safest thing to do at that point is 'fold em'.
Pass the race and move on.

OR
there are more advanced ways to 'read' that hand.


When the Odds behave unexpectedly, there are 3 primary reasons:

• Randomness (some guy made a big bet on his birthday etc..)

• Errors (We made a bad line! WE made a mistake. We were Wrong!!)

• Inside Information (Trainer loves this horse today etc..)

Beginners should always pass, except for fun/practice.


Advanced horseplayers should usually pass, but also attempt to read their ERRORS and why they screwed up and misjudged the odds and how they can learn from it.
Once in a while they can adapt on the fly and re-calculate their bet.
Once in a blue moon, they realize that word is out, and the horse they thought would be 5/2-3/1 co favorite material is 8/5-9/5, and he's sharp enough to tell the difference between a screwup, and a horse that is UNEXPECTEDLY Hot-on-the-board and that may be a good horse to hammer or single or whatever.

Workshop thread here.

[Robert Fischer]

CORRECTION TO FACT #2


2) The morning line is often perverted by Heavy favorites and/or Hopeless longshots in order to appease connections and entice bettors.