Who is picking against American Pharoah in the Belmont?

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by thespaah

I agree.
Pletcher will be sending three to post. He's not in it for the second place money.
Every Belmont, whether a TC is on the line or not, there are horses entered that have been pointed to the Belmont...These are fresh and fit horses. It's up to us to figure out which of these is the most fresh and fit.
This is the one horse that beats the TC candidate. This has been the case in each Belmont where a TC bid was possible since 1979.
Now, if in this case AP wins, so be it.

yes fresh and fit is the usual ticket for the Belmont. It's not a race for those looking to regain their prior good form.

[depalma113]

Originally Posted by RXB

Materiality reminds me a lot of Union Rags.

-- Proven G1 ability.
-- Didn't break well and had some trip difficulty thereafter in the Ky Derby.
-- Ran past most of the field in the straight when finally extricated from traffic.
-- Large horse, maybe not entirely comfortable on the relatively tight CD turns.

He was in a new world in the Ky Derby: running in the back third of the field early, eating dirt, having to deal with traffic and horses making moves around him. And frankly, he didn't handle it that well, especially on the final turn. But I expect him to be near the lead in the Belmont Stakes, and that big sweeping oval should suit him better. The basic ability is there.

Of course Union Rags didn't face or beat a Derby and Preakness winner in the Belmont.

[depalma113]

Carpe Diem, War Story, Frammento, Tale of Verve, Keen Ice, Materiality and Mubtaahij have exactly how many more races than American Pharoah at Belmont?

[raybo]

The Derby is often a chaos race, the Preakness is usually more formful (unless you have a horrendous surface like we had this year), and the Belmont is, the Belmont, a Belmont experienced rider/horse track, with unique physical characteristics that demand track specific skills and attributes.

[Rex Phinney]

Originally Posted by depalma113

Carpe Diem, War Story, Frammento, Tale of Verve, Keen Ice, Materiality and Mubtaahij have exactly how many more races than American Pharoah at Belmont?

You left out Madefromlucky he has a race over Belmont I think...

Many of these are at least training or based there. They will also have riders far more experienced there.

[sammy the sage]

Mubtaahij...wins...IF he gets THE benefits of LASIX...my 2 cents...1943 copper that is....

[depalma113]

Originally Posted by Rex Phinney

You left out Madefromlucky he has a race over Belmont I think...

Many of these are at least training or based there. They will also have riders far more experienced there.

I specifically left out three horses, Madefromlucky, Frosted, and Conquest Curlinate, because I want someone to explain how one of these three is going to beat American Pharoah.

According to the race over the track theory, they are the only 3 that have a chance.

As for training there, Funny Cide kind of blows that theory out of the water.

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by depalma113

I specifically left out three horses, Madefromlucky, Frosted, and Conquest Curlinate, because I want someone to explain how one of these three is going to beat American Pharoah.

According to the race over the track theory, they are the only 3 that have a chance.
, As for training there, Funny Cide kind of blows that theory out of the water.

FUNNYCIDE over trained for the Belmont. Robin Smoulin worked the horse in 58 a week before a mile and a half race. he left his race on the track that morning. that ain't going to happen with Baffert, i promise you that horse will be as ready as can be. he has already won a Belmont Stake by leaving his horse in Kentucky to train when Point Given won by 12 lengths.

for those going against AMERICAN PHAROAH, dream on.

[burnsy]

Of course he will be ready if healthy. Being a gambler, that bases some of the wagers on past history.....the dreamers are most likely the ones betting to get 20 cents. Can he win ? Sure he can win. But what cracks me up are the people that are "sizing" up the field saying only this one or that one have a chance. Its hilarious, where are these folks for the last 20 years? People gave Commissioner no shot last year, he beat Chrome and almost won! There have been so many horses that have won this race that looked that way....should I list them all? This just reinforces my theory about peoples memory and the bandwagon. Some of you guys should go over past results in this race, if you think these horses are not being bred and trained for speed over distance......take a look at the results of the Belmont Stakes...its the only time most of them will go this far these days.....gee, I wonder why? Will I be surprised if he wins? Hell no....but I'll be even less surprised if a bomb bites this field in the ass or a fresh horse wins......because that's the way this race and distance goes nowadays. Don't listen to Burnsy, pull up the results and look at it your self.

[LemonSoupKid]

Originally Posted by depalma113

Carpe Diem, War Story, Frammento, Tale of Verve, Keen Ice, Materiality and Mubtaahij have exactly how many more races than American Pharoah at Belmont?

Not only did you omit madefromlucky, as pointed out, but you do understand probability, don't you? I realize AP is the most talented, but surface is not the only other X factor. To spell it out: Only 1 of those guys needs to put it together, and we aren't sure they aren't suited to (although we do know AP isn't bred as well for the 1.5 miles).

[boys at tosconova]

unless somebody makes a big jump up...if AP doesn't win frosted and materiality are prolly the only 2 that can.

[no breathalyzer]

Originally Posted by sammy the sage

Mubtaahij...wins...IF he gets THE benefits of LASIX...my 2 cents...1943 copper that is....

i agree... would like to really know if they plan on running with Lasix.. i haven't seen or read anything on this yet.

[letswastemoney]

Originally Posted by boys at tosconova

unless somebody makes a big jump up...if AP doesn't win frosted and materiality are prolly the only 2 that can.

Maybe there is another horse that really excels at 12 furlongs, and the form is hidden because no 12 furlong races exist for three year olds until this one.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by sbcaris

What happens if the Belmont Stakes comes up SLOPPY and American Pharaoh romps wire to wire like he did at Pimlico? Doesn't that make him a Triple Crown winning MUDDER?

Somehow I think that would put the damper on his performance since he is a super mudder to begin with.

No damper at all. All the others who had perfect conditions came up empty too, for one reason or the other.

Or are you saying all the others gunning for the TC in recent years had track conditions that were working against them? How do you know some didn't have a track they relished, yet they faltered for other reasons?

This whole line of thinking is absurd, really.

[luisbe]

Originally Posted by fmhealth

...

My bet, as it's always been in this race, is everyone to show w/o AP. Small investment, potentially material profit. It's the ONLY wager in my 56 years as a 'capper that I'm ahead with. Best of luck!!

Be Well,
fmhealth

It amazed me how frequently we read such as statement before this situation, over and over again in many horse-players forums.
It seems it was a two horse race and it's very easy to come up with the winner out of the heavy fave.
I know its not exactly what you said, just it was a shooter of what I often read.