Who is picking against American Pharoah in the Belmont?

[f2tornado]

Different surface, different distance, different horses, probably different weather, jockey with poor record at the track, horse with dosage that doesn't fit the winning profile, potential for explosive tote board. Why not take a shot here. I'm not going bet real heavy against but will likely do a couple of tri wheels and hope to cash in.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by raybo

12 furlongs is the question for all the horses in the race. AP is the most accomplished of all, at the distances they have been running. But, 4 races in 8 weeks is a bunch, for any 3 yo.

So, I'll just watch this year and hope for a TC champ!

The once-in-a-lifetime distance makes this an unbettable race for me. I predict that the Pharoah will lose...but identifying the winner is another matter. I refuse to take a blind stab at this race, even though logic dictates that such a play is advisable in cases where the heavy favorite can be tossed from the win spot.

[burnsy]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

The once-in-a-lifetime distance makes this an unbettable race for me. I predict that the Pharoah will lose...but identifying the winner is another matter. I refuse to take a blind stab at this race, even though logic dictates that such a play is advisable in cases where the heavy favorite can be tossed from the win spot.

....and that's why I hit the "all" button, in picks. Its been like stealing....for me to skip that race would be like throwing money away at this point, its worked that well the last 11 years.

[lamboguy]

i have this horse 8 cents to the dollar, fair payoff would be $2.16 for a win bet. if that number is correct, and after doing this for quite some time now i suspect i am a bit on the generous side, this horse would be pretty impossible to beat.

if you want to root for a rider falloff, disqualification, or the horse breaking down, go for it. not me though, i will bet him once again or pass the race should he train normal going into the race.

[Fiat Lux]

Will there be value betting the fresh horses? At what price Materiality or Frosted are good win bets? Maybe Mubtaahij, if he can go the distance.
So far, the horses that were supposed to challenge AP have failed to do so, and it is hard to find value in the race with the information available now.

[SandyW]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

Different surface, different distance, different horses, probably different weather, jockey with poor record at the track, horse with dosage that doesn't fit the winning profile, potential for explosive tote board. Why not take a shot here. I'm not going bet real heavy against but will likely do a couple of tri wheels and hope to cash in.

Yes, you said all the negatives, but when Baffert states that AP is the best horse that he has ever trained I am going out on the limb and say that AP will romp in the Belmont.

[stats33]

Originally Posted by Fiat Lux

So far, the horses that were supposed to challenge AP have failed to do so, and it is hard to find value in the race with the information available now.

Really? Having to go to the whip 32 times to win by 1 length in KY wasn't being 'challenged'? No doubt in my mind that Frosted runs down AP Derby Day if they had ran another quarter mile.

Now that might now matter in the Belmont as it's a different scenario but let's not act like a horse can't lose.

[ronsmac]

Originally Posted by letswastemoney

I don't see any serious flaws with American Pharoah. There weren't any flaws with horses like Big Brown and Smarty Jones either.

It's the fatigue factor and the unknown of going 12 furlongs.

Most of their races have gradually built to going 10 furlongs for the Derby, then they switched back to 9.5. Now American Pharoah must jump 2.5 furlongs to 12, and be the only one that had to go through all three.

He is the best whether he wins or loses. There is no disputing that. But I see enough reasons to be skeptical in 3 weeks, and for that race only, before he goes and dominates later on in the summer.

Big Brown's foot was his flaw and if Smarty had a flaw, maybe he didn't rate quite as kindly as American Pharoah .Not saying he couldn't rate, but American Pharoah rates a little better in my opinion.

[Rex Phinney]

Originally Posted by Fiat Lux

So far, the horses that were supposed to challenge AP have failed to do so, and it is hard to find value in the race with the information available now.

Firing line gave him all he could handle in Louisville. Or at least Espinoza thought so, he was sure riding like it.

The Preakness is a total toss, that weather was obviously a factor for many of the horses in the race.

[sbcaris]

What happens if the Belmont Stakes comes up SLOPPY and American Pharaoh romps wire to wire like he did at Pimlico? Doesn't that make him a Triple Crown winning MUDDER?

Somehow I think that would put the damper on his performance since he is a super mudder to begin with.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Picture all those souvenir $2 Win tickets on American Pharoah. Yeah, that's not going to affect the pool......

[Some_One]

Originally Posted by sbcaris

What happens if the Belmont Stakes comes up SLOPPY and American Pharaoh romps wire to wire like he did at Pimlico? Doesn't that make him a Triple Crown winning MUDDER?

Somehow I think that would put the damper on his performance since he is a super mudder to begin with.

If it comes up wet, I think you could see Stanford and/or Materiality gun for the lead at all costs and not give AP that comfy frontrunning spot.

[Rex Phinney]

Originally Posted by Some_One

If it comes up wet, I think you could see Stanford and/or Materiality gun for the lead at all costs and not give AP that comfy frontrunning spot.

It would be good to see somebody do it, nowadays it's like follow the leader in too many of these races.

[pandy]

Originally Posted by SandyW

Yes, you said all the negatives, but when Baffert states that AP is the best horse that he has ever trained I am going out on the limb and say that AP will romp in the Belmont.

Trainers always rave about the top horses, naturally. The interview I saw, Baffert said that A P "might" be the best horse he's ever trained. What do you expect him to say? Remember how California Chrome's trainer boasted about his horse last year?

Silver Charm (ranked 63 on Bloodhorse's top 100) was a great horse. I would be very surprised if American Pharoah turns out to be a better horse than Silver Charm.

[letswastemoney]

Originally Posted by Some_One

If it comes up wet, I think you could see Stanford and/or Materiality gun for the lead at all costs and not give AP that comfy frontrunning spot.

I see Materiality gunning anyway, or at least being very close. After the poor trip in the Kentucky Derby, they are not going to make the same mistake of coming from too far back.